New Year's Eve NBA Action

Here's the thing about this Warriors squad - they're stuck in purgatory between contender and pretender, hovering around .500 while Steph Curry's prime slowly ticks away. But Charlotte? They're not purgatory. They're just bad. The Hornets have dropped six of their last eight at home, and their defense is hemorrhaging 118 points per game during that stretch.

Golden State's motion offense should feast on Charlotte's porous perimeter defense. The Hornets rank 27th in opponent three-point percentage, and that's basically rolling out the red carpet for Curry and company. LaMelo Ball's playmaking keeps them somewhat competitive offensively, but he's surrounded by so little talent that it almost doesn't matter.

The Warriors need road wins to stay in the playoff picture, and this is exactly the type of game Steve Kerr circles. Lay the points - Charlotte's just not good enough at home to keep this competitive for four quarters.

Minnesota's defensive identity hasn't wavered even after losing key pieces in the offseason. Anthony Edwards has taken another leap offensively, averaging 27.3 points per game, and Rudy Gobert continues to be the paint-protecting anchor that makes everything work. This Wolves team is legitimately scary when locked in.

Atlanta's living and dying by Trae Young right now, and that's a dangerous game. When Trae's cooking, the Hawks can hang with anybody. When he's off? They look like a lottery team. Their defensive rating of 117.2 is bottom-ten in the league, which is particularly problematic against a Wolves team that can score in multiple ways.

The State Farm Arena crowd will keep this interesting early, but Minnesota's depth and defensive intensity should wear Atlanta down in the second half. The Wolves have been excellent at closing out games against sub-.500 teams, covering in seven of their last nine such matchups.

This Indiana season has been an absolute nightmare. The Pacers went to the NBA Finals last year, and now they're 6-27 and looking like the worst team in basketball. The Tyrese Haliburton Achilles injury changed everything - without their floor general, this offense has completely collapsed. They're averaging just 103.8 points per game in December, down from 123.3 during their Finals run.

Orlando's playing the kind of suffocating defense that makes lottery teams quit early. Paolo Banchero has emerged as a legitimate star, averaging 23.1 points and 8.4 rebounds, and Franz Wagner provides the secondary scoring punch. The Magic rank fourth in defensive rating and they'll absolutely smother what's left of Indiana's attack.

The only concern here is the 12.5-point spread - that's a massive number against any NBA team. But the Pacers have lost by double digits in 11 of their 27 losses this season. Orlando should control this wire-to-wire.

This is one of the more intriguing matchups of the day. Phoenix has quietly rounded into form after a shaky start, with Devin Booker and Bradley Beal finally finding chemistry. The Suns are 8-4 in their last twelve games and their offense is humming at 118.2 points per 100 possessions during that stretch.

Cleveland's been inconsistent but dangerous. Donovan Mitchell can take over games when he gets hot, and Darius Garland's playmaking creates open looks for everyone. The problem? Their defense has slipped recently, and Evan Mobley has been dealing with nagging injuries that limit his impact on that end.

Phoenix being favored on the road against a team with a similar record tells you what Vegas thinks about trajectory. The Suns have the star power advantage with Booker/Beal, and they've been excellent in afternoon games this season. Cleveland's home court doesn't carry the same weight it did a year ago. This feels like a shootout, and Phoenix has the better closers.

Toronto's been one of the surprise stories of the season. Brandon Ingram's arrival revitalized this roster, and he's meshed beautifully with Scottie Barnes. The Raptors are playing with an identity and purpose that was missing the past few years, and their 20-14 record is no fluke.

But Denver has Nikola Jokic, and that alone makes them dangerous in any matchup. The Serbian maestro is putting up another MVP-caliber campaign, and his ability to pick apart any defense with passing or scoring is unmatched. Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray provide the secondary punch when they're healthy and engaged.

The altitude advantage doesn't exist in Toronto, and the Raptors' length could bother Denver's shooters. This feels like a playoff-type atmosphere in Scotiabank Arena, and Toronto's home crowd is notoriously loud. The small spread suggests Denver's road woes are being priced in - they're just 8-6 away from Ball Arena this year.

Milwaukee's season has been a massive disappointment. At 14-19, they're fighting just to stay in the play-in picture, and the Giannis/Dame pairing hasn't produced the championship contender everyone expected. Defensive effort has been spotty, and the chemistry still seems off at times.

But you know what fixes a lot of problems? Playing the 7-24 Washington Wizards. This is the ultimate get-right spot for Milwaukee. The Wizards are tanking (whether they admit it or not), and they have the worst road record in basketball at 2-15 away from Capital One Arena.

Giannis should absolutely feast in the paint against Washington's non-existent rim protection. The only question is whether Milwaukee comes out flat in a New Year's Eve matinee spot. They shouldn't - they desperately need wins. Even a half-engaged Bucks team should cover this number against a Wizards squad actively trying to lose.

OKC is on a historic run. At 28-5, they have the best record in basketball by a wide margin, and they're doing it with suffocating defense and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander playing like the MVP frontrunner. The reigning champions are somehow even better than last year, which is terrifying for the rest of the West.

Portland's in rebuilding mode with Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe as the centerpieces. They play hard - credit to Chauncey Billups for instilling effort - but they simply don't have the talent to compete with elite teams. The Blazers are 5-12 on the road this season with a -8.3 point differential away from the Moda Center.

The Thunder have covered 14.5 in three of their last four home games against teams under .500. Their depth is absurd, their defense is elite, and Paycom Center will be rocking for New Year's Eve. Portland's young guys might keep it close for a quarter, but OKC's quality will shine through by halftime.