LSU has allowed 284 total yards in two games. Not per game, total. Clemson got 145 of them and Louisiana Tech got 139, and Louisiana Tech finished with -4 rushing yards. Tonight the Tigers go to Oxford as a 3 point favorite against an Ole Miss team that just gave up 469 yards to Louisville, and Louisville is on this card too.
4 plays, 8 units to win, 10.85 at risk. The biggest one is Northwestern on the moneyline at home against Colorado, in what the forecast says will be a wet night on the lake.
ON THIS CARD
The Card And The Math
| Play | Price | To Win | Risk | Break Even | Kickoff PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern ML vs Colorado | -175 | 3 | 5.25 | 63.64% | 4:30 pm |
| LSU -3 at Ole Miss | -110 | 2.5 | 2.75 | 52.38% | 4:30 pm |
| Louisville ML vs SMU | -120 | 1 | 1.2 | 54.55% | 12:30 pm |
| Virginia -10.5 vs West Virginia | -110 | 1.5 | 1.65 | 52.38% | 4:30 pm |
Louisville goes first, at 12:30 Pacific on ESPN2. The other three all kick at 4:30: Northwestern on FOX, LSU on ABC, and Virginia on ACC Network from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte. Prices are the ones on the TrustMyRecord board when the plays were locked.
Northwestern ML: 3 Units
Northwestern has played once. The Wildcats beat South Dakota State 34 to 18 on September 6, then sat through an open week, so they've had two weeks to get ready for this one. In that opener they gained 497 yards, 273 through the air and 224 on the ground, and didn't turn it over once.
Aidan Chiles went 14 of 24 for 273 yards, 11.4 yards an attempt, with a touchdown and no picks. Joseph Himon II only carried 4 times but turned them into 87 yards, 80 of it on one run, and Gavin Sawchuk added 69 on 8 carries.
Colorado is 2 and 0, and I'd look hard at how. The Buffaloes beat Georgia Tech 14 to 13 in Atlanta with 307 yards of offense, and Julian Lewis was 14 of 27 for 124 yards that night. Then they put up 578 on Weber State, an FCS team, and still got flagged 13 times for 107 yards. Against the only FBS opponent they've seen, Colorado threw for 124 yards and won by a point.
Then there's the weather. The ESPN game page carries an AccuWeather forecast of 67 degrees with light rain and a 98 percent chance of precipitation in Evanston. A rainy night doesn't help the road team whose passing game already stalled once against an FBS defense.
The price has moved toward Northwestern. DraftKings opened the Wildcats at -162 on the moneyline, per the odds feed on ESPN's game page, and the TMR board had them at -175 when I locked this. I'll be straight about it: the spread went the other way, from 4.5 down to 3.5, so the market is split on how big this win is. I don't need a big win. I need a win.
LSU -3 At Ole Miss: 2.5 Units
This is the biggest game on the card, a No. 7 at a No. 8, and the defensive numbers aren't close.
| Through two games | LSU | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Results | Beat Clemson 51 to 10, Louisiana Tech 45 to 14 | Beat Louisville 41 to 38, Charlotte 41 to 9 |
| Total yards gained | 644 and 528 | 488 and 420 |
| Total yards allowed | 145 and 139 | 469 and 322 |
| Rushing yards allowed | 40 and -4 | 162 and 143 |
| Opponent third downs | 1 of 13, 3 of 14 | 7 of 16, 3 of 14 |
| Turnovers committed | 1 and 4 | 2 and 1 |
Clemson converted one third down all day in Baton Rouge. Princewill Umanmielen has 5 sacks in two games, 2 against Clemson and 3 against Louisiana Tech. And Sam Leavitt ran for 113 yards and 2 touchdowns against Clemson on top of 230 through the air.
Ole Miss can score. Trinidad Chambliss is 44 of 62 for 561 yards and 5 touchdowns, and Deuce Alexander caught 5 balls for 159 yards and 2 scores against Louisville. But the Rebels gave up 469 yards to Louisville at home and won by 3. LSU's defense hasn't let anybody get to 150.
The market has moved hard here. DraftKings opened Ole Miss as a 1.5 point favorite, per ESPN's odds feed, and it's now LSU -3. That's four and a half points and a flip of the favorite. Like any big move, it means the best number is gone. It also means I'm not alone in reading those defensive numbers this way.
Louisville ML: 1 Unit
That Ole Miss game is the reason for this one. Louisville went into Oxford on September 6 and lost 41 to 38, but the Cardinals didn't turn it over and were outgained by just 19 yards, 488 to 469. Lincoln Kienholz threw for 307 yards and 2 touchdowns and ran for 69 more. A week later they hung 635 yards on Villanova, which is an FCS team, so I'll leave that one alone.
SMU is No. 16 and 2 and 0, and the Mustangs' offense is real: Kevin Jennings is 40 of 52 for 767 yards and 8 touchdowns. But look at the win at Florida State. SMU turned it over 4 times, Jennings threw 2 interceptions, and it still took a 3 point finish to get out of Tallahassee.
So the Cardinals' only loss is a 3 point game on the road at a team that's No. 8 right now, where they committed zero turnovers, and SMU's only FBS win came with four giveaways. Louisville is at home, the forecast on ESPN's game page says 95 degrees at kickoff, and the moneyline has drifted from -112 at the open to -120 on the TMR board. It's a 1 unit play because it's close to a coin flip, and I'm treating it like one.
Virginia -10.5: 1.5 Units
Virginia has done exactly what a No. 25 team should do. The Cavaliers beat NC State 34 to 8, held the ball for 38:03 and allowed 168 yards. Then they beat Norfolk State 59 to 3. Beau Pribula is 21 of 25 for 317 yards and 5 touchdowns through two games, and he ran for 110 against NC State.
West Virginia's defense is the question. The Mountaineers gave up 425 yards to Coastal Carolina, 373 of them through the air, and won that home game by 7. A secondary that let Coastal throw for 373 now gets a quarterback who's completed 21 of his 25 passes.
This one's in Charlotte, not Charlottesville. Virginia is listed as the home team but it's a neutral field. The line has climbed from 8.5 at the DraftKings open to 10.5, per ESPN's odds feed, so again the value at the open is gone. The case still holds at 10.5.
The Argument Against This Card
LSU is sloppy with the ball. Five turnovers in two games, four of them against Louisiana Tech, where Leavitt threw 3 interceptions. The Tigers also took 10 penalties for 101 yards that night. That was a blowout that allowed it. A tight game in Oxford won't.
Northwestern's defense gave up 432 yards to an FCS team. South Dakota State threw for 285 of them and converted 8 of 20 third downs. If Lewis looks like he did against Weber State and not like he did at Georgia Tech, -175 is a lot to lay.
West Virginia can run. The Mountaineers ran for 281 yards against Coastal Carolina and 316 against UT Martin, and Cam Cook carried 30 times for 142 yards in the opener. A team that runs like that can shorten the game and sit inside 10.5.
SMU beat Louisville 38 to 6 last November. That was in Dallas and it was last season, but it happened, and it's the most recent time these two played.
FAQ
What are the BetLegend college football plays for Saturday September 19?
Northwestern ML -175 for 3 units, LSU -3 at Ole Miss at -110 for 2.5 units, Louisville ML -120 for 1 unit, and Virginia -10.5 against West Virginia at -110 for 1.5 units. That is 8 units to win and 10.85 at risk.
Why LSU -3 at Ole Miss?
LSU has allowed 145 yards to Clemson and 139 to Louisiana Tech. Ole Miss allowed 469 to Louisville and won by 3. The line opened Ole Miss -1.5 and is now LSU -3.
Why Northwestern on the moneyline?
Northwestern gained 497 yards with no turnovers in its opener and had an open week since. Colorado managed 307 yards and 124 passing yards in its only FBS game, and the Evanston forecast calls for rain.
What is the biggest risk on the card?
LSU has 5 turnovers in two games, and Northwestern allowed 432 yards to South Dakota State. West Virginia has run for 281 and 316 yards in its two games, which can keep Virginia inside 10.5.
Where can these plays be verified?
They were posted with their prices and unit sizes before kickoff on the verified BetLegend record at trustmyrecord.com, and they are graded there afterwards whether they win or lose.
These plays were posted with their prices and unit sizes before kickoff on the verified BetLegend record at trustmyrecord.com, and they get graded there, win or lose.