Over his last five starts Michael King has thrown 32.2 innings and allowed 5 earned runs. That's a 1.38 ERA, and three of those five outings were scoreless. On Thursday he takes it to Coors Field against a Rockies team that's 1 and 9 in its last ten, and a Rockies starter, Tanner Gordon, who carries a 7.47 ERA at home. That's the bigger of the two tickets today. The other one is a quieter bet on Framber Valdez, who hasn't allowed an earned run in either of his last two starts.
2 plays, 3.5 units to win, 6.08 at risk. The Padres go off at 12:10 Pacific, the White Sox at 4:40.
ON THIS CARD
Both Plays And The Math
| Play | Price | To Win | Risk | Break Even | First Pitch PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres ML at Rockies | -195 | 2 | 3.90 | 66.10% | 12:10 pm |
| Chicago White Sox team total under 4.5 vs Tigers | -145 | 1.5 | 2.18 | 59.18% | 4:40 pm |
Both prices are laying juice, so the unit figures are what each ticket wins. The Padres need to win this game about two times in three just to break even at -195. That's a steep number, and the rest of this section is about why it's still the right side.
Padres -195: Michael King Against Tanner Gordon At Coors
These two clubs are headed in opposite directions and they've been doing it all week. San Diego is 9 and 1 in its last ten and holds the third wild card spot at 83 and 69. Colorado is 56 and 96, 1 and 9 in its last ten, with a run differential of 170 runs in the red. The Padres have won 10 of the 12 meetings this season, including Monday's 8 to 7 and Wednesday's 9 to 3 in this series.
| 2026 | Michael King, Padres | Tanner Gordon, Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Record and ERA | 11 and 9, 3.03 | 1 and 4, 5.55 |
| Starts and innings | 30 starts, 175.0 | 10 starts in 22 games, 97.1 |
| WHIP | 1.15 | 1.48 |
| Hits per nine | 6.94 | 11.65 |
| OPS against | .644 | .884 |
| ERA at home | 2.74 | 7.47 |
King's form is the reason I'm comfortable laying this much. His last five lines: 6.2 innings and 2 earned against the Mets, 7 scoreless against the Pirates, 6 scoreless against the Reds, 6 scoreless against the Yankees, then 7 innings and 3 earned in San Francisco. He's gone six innings or more in every one of those, which matters at Coors, where the bullpen is the part of a road favorite that usually leaks. He's also seen this lineup already, 6 innings and 4 earned at Petco Park in July, and the Padres still won that game.
Gordon is the bigger story. Opponents are hitting .313 against him, and left handed hitters have a .907 OPS with 13 home runs. At home this season hitters have a .965 OPS against him. His last two outings were 4.2 innings with 5 earned against St. Louis and 4 innings with 10 hits allowed in Detroit. The Rockies' home staff has a 5.85 ERA behind him, so there isn't much relief coming if he's gone early.
Coors games have averaged 11.38 total runs this season, and the forecast is 77 degrees with the wind blowing out to left at 5 miles an hour. That cuts both ways, but it cuts deeper against the team that allows 885 runs.
White Sox Team Total Under 4.5: Framber Valdez At Rate Field
The White Sox are in a real race, 77 and 75 and a half game out of the division lead, and they're scuffling at the worst time. They're 3 and 7 in their last ten and have lost two straight in Cleveland. Over those ten games they scored 4 runs or fewer six times, including 0, 1, 2 and three separate 3 run nights.
| 2026 | Framber Valdez, Tigers | Erick Fedde, White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Record and ERA | 10 and 10, 4.01 | 8 and 9, 3.97 |
| Starts and innings | 29 starts, 163.2 | 14 starts in 31 games, 133.2 |
| WHIP | 1.36 | 1.34 |
| Home runs per nine | 0.82 | 1.55 |
| Last five outings | 30.2 innings, 2.93 ERA | 24 innings, 4 earned |
Valdez's season ERA of 4.01 undersells where he is right now. His last two starts were 7 scoreless innings against Cleveland and 6 innings against Colorado with no earned runs, and across his last five he's at 2.93. He keeps the ball in the park, 15 home runs allowed in 163.2 innings, and that's the key against a White Sox lineup that leans on the long ball with 195 homers and a .235 team average.
The Tigers' staff helps too. Detroit is 72 and 80 but has allowed only 607 runs, 70 fewer than Chicago, with a 3.97 road ERA. The White Sox have been held to 4 or fewer in 79 of 152 games this season, and in 8 of their last 15 at home.
The Argument Against This Card
-195 is a lot to lay at Coors. The altitude turns routine fly balls into doubles, and the Rockies did beat the Padres 9 to 3 on Tuesday. One bad inning from the bullpen is all it takes.
The White Sox hit lefties better than righties, a .743 OPS against left handed pitching, and they've scored 4.89 runs a game at home. When Valdez faced them in May he gave up 4 earned in 6.2 innings and Chicago scored 7. This under is a bet on his current form, not his history against this lineup.
Card FAQ
What are the BetLegend plays for Thursday September 17?
Two MLB plays. San Diego Padres moneyline at -195 for 2 units at the Rockies, and Chicago White Sox team total under 4.5 at -145 for 1.5 units against the Tigers.
How much is the card risking?
Both prices are laying juice, so the unit figures are the amount being won. The card is 3.5 units to win and 6.08 units at risk.
Why lay -195 with the Padres at Coors Field?
Michael King has a 1.38 ERA over his last five starts and has gone at least six innings in each. Tanner Gordon has a 7.47 ERA at home, the Rockies are 1 and 9 in their last ten, and San Diego has won 10 of 12 meetings this season.
Why the White Sox team total under 4.5?
Framber Valdez hasn't allowed an earned run in 13 innings over his last two starts, and the White Sox are 3 and 7 in their last ten, scoring 4 runs or fewer in six of those games.
Where can these plays be verified?
Both were posted with their prices and unit sizes before first pitch on the verified BetLegend record at trustmyrecord.com, and they are graded there afterwards whether they win or lose.
Both plays were posted with their prices and unit sizes before first pitch on the verified BetLegend record at trustmyrecord.com, and both get graded there, win or lose.