Jack Perkins takes the ball at Tropicana Field on Tuesday with a 6.53 ERA, and the Athletics are 2 and 12 in the games he's started. They've lost 10 of those 14 by two runs or more. That's the number sitting under the biggest ticket on this card, Tampa Bay -1 at -170, and it's also why the second ticket in that same game is the A's team total under 3.5.
8 plays, 17 units to win, 26.95 at risk. Every one of them starts with the man on the mound, and in two games the card has a ticket on both sides of the same pitching matchup.
ON THIS CARD
- All Eight Plays And The Math
- Rays -1 And Athletics Under 3.5: Perkins Against Jax
- Cardinals -165: Pallante Against A Giants Team That Can't Win On The Road
- Yankees -165 And Twins Under 3.5: Max Fried At Target Field
- Guardians -149: Foster Griffin Against Another White Sox Bullpen Night
- Brewers -1: Misiorowski Against A Pittsburgh Opener
- Braves And Cubs Under 8.5: Pérez, Gausman And A Quiet Wind
- The Argument Against This Card
- Card FAQ
All Eight Plays And The Math
| Play | Price | To Win | Risk | Break Even | First Pitch PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays -1 | -170 | 3 | 5.10 | 62.96% | 3:40 pm |
| Athletics team total under 3.5 | -151 | 2 | 3.02 | 60.16% | 3:40 pm |
| Cleveland Guardians ML | -149 | 2 | 2.98 | 59.84% | 3:40 pm |
| Milwaukee Brewers -1 | -180 | 1.5 | 2.70 | 64.29% | 3:40 pm |
| Braves and Cubs under 8.5 | -110 | 1 | 1.10 | 52.38% | 4:40 pm |
| New York Yankees ML | -165 | 2 | 3.30 | 62.26% | 4:40 pm |
| Minnesota Twins team total under 3.5 | -152 | 2.5 | 3.80 | 60.32% | 4:40 pm |
| St. Louis Cardinals ML | -165 | 3 | 4.95 | 62.26% | 4:45 pm |
Look at how the risk actually clusters. The Rays game carries 8.12 units across two tickets that want the same thing, Tampa Bay pitching well and the A's bats staying cold. The Yankees and Twins game carries 7.10 on the same idea from the other dugout. Those two games are more than 56 percent of everything at stake, so if you only watch two tonight, watch those.
Rays -1 And Athletics Under 3.5: Perkins Against Jax
Here's the matchup off MLB's own stat feed this afternoon.
| 2026 | Jack Perkins, A's | Griffin Jax, Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Record and ERA | 3 and 11, 6.53 | 7 and 10, 3.99 |
| WHIP | 1.53 | 1.24 |
| Home runs allowed | 20 in 103.1 innings | 15 in 99.1 innings |
| Walks per nine | 4.09 | 2.99 |
| Team record in his starts | 2 and 12 | 10 and 10 |
| Last time out | 5 innings, 4 earned vs Toronto | 5 innings, 1 earned at Atlanta |
Perkins has already seen this lineup. On August 12 the Rays tagged him for 12 hits and 6 earned runs in 5 innings, the last game of a series in which Tampa Bay scored 30 runs in three days. Opponents are averaging 6.57 runs a game when he starts. He strikes guys out, 119 of them, but the walks and the home runs keep handing innings away.
The -1 is the part worth slowing down on. A one run Rays win is a push, not a loss, so what this ticket needs is a win by two or more. And here's a strange little fact about Griffin Jax's season: the Rays have won 10 of his 20 starts, and all 10 of those wins came by two runs or more. When Tampa Bay wins behind him, it hasn't been close. At home this year the Rays are 50 and 25, the best home record in the American League, and they've won three straight.
Now the under. The A's are a different team away from their own park. Their OPS at home is .782. On the road it's .662, and they've scored 3.84 runs a game in 75 road games, getting held to three or fewer in 39 of them. Jax has been tougher on right handed hitters, a .669 OPS against, than on lefties at .736, so the A's left handed bats are the ones to watch. The Trop's a dome, so there's no wind to help anybody.
One honest caveat about Jax: 11 of his 31 appearances have come in relief and he rarely goes past five innings, which means the Rays bullpen owns the back half. Tampa Bay's staff has a 3.87 ERA at home.
Cardinals -165: Pallante Against A Giants Team That Can't Win On The Road
This is the biggest risk on the card after the Rays, 4.95 units, and it rests on a road record. San Francisco is 26 and 50 away from home. That's a .342 winning percentage, and the Giants have lost four straight, including a 2 to 1 loss in this building on Monday night.
| 2026 | Blade Tidwell, Giants | Andre Pallante, Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Record and ERA | 0 and 2, 4.82 | 12 and 6, 3.45 |
| Starts | 7 of 15 appearances | 26 of 26 |
| Team record in his starts | 1 and 6 | 15 and 11 |
| OPS against left handed hitters | .898 | .696 |
| Home runs allowed per nine | 1.16 | 0.62 |
These two just faced each other in San Francisco on September 9. Pallante gave up one earned run in five innings. Tidwell lasted four and allowed five runs. The Cardinals still lost that game 7 to 6, which is the whole week in miniature for St. Louis: they dropped three one run games in San Francisco before winning Monday's.
That Tidwell split against lefties is the key line. Left handed hitters are batting .286 off him with 5 of the 6 home runs he's allowed. It'll be 91 degrees at first pitch with the wind blowing out to left at 10 miles an hour, and that's not weather a pitcher with a .898 OPS against lefties wants to see.
What worries me is the Cardinals offense at home. It's a .667 OPS at Busch this year and 3.83 runs a game, worse than on the road. Pallante's home ERA is 4.02 too, against 2.76 on the road. This price isn't about St. Louis being good. It's about San Francisco being this bad away from home.
Yankees -165 And Twins Under 3.5: Max Fried At Target Field
Two tickets, one pitcher. Max Fried has allowed 4 home runs in 99 innings this season. That's 0.36 per nine. His ERA is 2.73 with a 0.99 WHIP, and it's even better on the road, 2.47 across 10 starts. Left handed hitters have a .391 OPS against him, which is almost unfair.
Minnesota is where you'd want to be sending him. The Twins are 3 and 7 in their last ten and they've scored three or fewer in 7 of those 10 games, including three runs in an 8 to 3 loss to these Yankees on Monday. They hit .678 in OPS against left handed pitching, compared with .740 against righties. And across the whole season, teams facing Fried have scored three or fewer in 11 of his 18 starts.
The Yankees side has a real wrinkle, and it's Bailey Ober at home. Ober's ERA at Target Field is 3.16 with a 1.07 WHIP. On the road it's 5.84. So he's not the soft spot his season line suggests. The case for the Yankees rests on Fried and on a team that's 45 and 31 on the road, the best road record in baseball, with a 2.91 staff ERA away from home.
The one thing to watch is Fried's pitch count. He's thrown 3.1 and 3.2 innings in two of his last three starts, and New York has only won 10 of his 18. The under survives a short Fried outing a lot better than the moneyline does.
Guardians -149: Foster Griffin Against Another White Sox Bullpen Night
Cleveland lost 7 to 3 on Monday, and the White Sox now lead the American League Central by a game and a half, 77 and 73 against 76 and 75. The Guardians still hold the third wild card spot, but a second straight loss to Chicago would make that division a long climb.
Chicago's opening with Chris Murphy, a left hander who's made 31 appearances and only 2 starts. He threw 33 pitches in St. Louis on Sunday. This is a bullpen game again. Cleveland's got Foster Griffin, 15 and 5 with a 3.65 ERA on the season, most of it in Washington before the trade.
I'll be straight about Griffin in Cleveland. In seven starts since the deal his ERA is 5.94, and most of that damage came in one night: 8 earned runs in 2.1 innings at Baltimore last Wednesday. Take that start out and he's allowed 14 earned runs in 31 innings. He's also far better against lefties, a .647 OPS, than righties at .723.
The lefty matchup cuts the wrong way for Cleveland at the plate, too. The Guardians hit .658 in OPS against left handed pitching, and the White Sox hit lefties better than righties. What the ticket is really buying is the middle innings, when Chicago's running through relievers after Murphy and Cleveland's got a starter who can give them five or six. The White Sox are 34 and 42 on the road.
Brewers -1: Misiorowski Against A Pittsburgh Opener
Jacob Misiorowski is having the kind of season you'd have to invent. 1.95 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 236 strikeouts in 161.1 innings, 13.17 per nine, and hitters are managing a .476 OPS against him. Milwaukee's 19 and 8 when he starts, and it's won 15 of those games by two or more.
| 2026 | Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers | Lake Bachar, Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| ERA and WHIP | 1.95 and 0.80 | 3.52 and 1.10 |
| Starts | 27 of 27 | 9 of 48 appearances |
| Longest of his last five starts | 6.1 innings | 3 innings |
| Road or home split | 2.39 ERA on the road | 2.02 ERA at home |
| Last start | 6.1 innings, 1 earned, 9 strikeouts vs Cubs | 1.2 innings, 0 earned at White Sox |
Bachar isn't really a starter. He's a reliever who's opened five games for Pittsburgh and hasn't gone past three innings in any of them, so the Brewers will be looking at the Pirates bullpen by the fourth. The -1 needs a win by two, since a one run win pushes. In Misiorowski's 27 starts that's gone 15 wins, 4 pushes and 8 losses.
It's the smallest win amount on the card for a reason, though, because -180 is a lot to lay and Pittsburgh has been a nuisance. The Pirates are 6 and 4 against Milwaukee this season, 7 and 3 in their last ten, and PNC Park has averaged 10.21 total runs a game this year, the kind of park where a four run lead doesn't feel safe.
Braves And Cubs Under 8.5: Pérez, Gausman And A Quiet Wind
This is the smallest ticket on the card, one unit, and it should be. Martín Pérez threw seven scoreless innings against Tampa Bay last Thursday and has a 3.08 ERA, but the split is ugly: 1.80 at home, 4.76 on the road with an .841 OPS against. Kevin Gausman's been worse since the Cubs got him, 23 earned runs in 39 innings over seven starts, though Chicago's won five of them.
So why the under? Start with the wind. Wrigley is the one park where the forecast changes the bet, and tonight it's calling for the mid 70s with the breeze under 3 miles an hour around first pitch. That's as neutral as Wrigley gets. The Braves bring a .689 road OPS and have gone 4 and 6 over their last ten, and Atlanta's pitching staff has a 3.62 ERA away from home. Their three meetings in May produced 7, 5 and 2 total runs.
The Cubs, though, score 5.36 a game at home, and only 33 of 76 games at Wrigley this season have finished with 8 runs or fewer. Monday's opener went 7 to 3. It's a price on two pitchers keeping it quiet on a still night, and it's sized that way.
The Argument Against This Card
Both big correlated positions can go at once. If Perkins has one of his good nights, and he's had them, the Rays ticket and the A's under can both lose, 8.12 units together. Same story if Ober pitches like he does at home and the Twins find three runs off the Yankees bullpen.
The Cardinals can't hit at home. A .667 OPS at Busch is a real problem, and they've just lost three one run games to this same team.
Griffin's last start was a disaster, and Cleveland's lineup is weakest against exactly the kind of pitcher Chicago is starting.
Card FAQ
What are the BetLegend plays for Tuesday September 15?
Eight MLB plays. Tampa Bay Rays -1 at -170 for 3 units, Athletics team total under 3.5 at -151 for 2 units, Cleveland Guardians moneyline at -149 for 2 units, Milwaukee Brewers -1 at -180 for 1.5 units, Braves and Cubs under 8.5 at -110 for 1 unit, New York Yankees moneyline at -165 for 2 units, Minnesota Twins team total under 3.5 at -152 for 2.5 units and St. Louis Cardinals moneyline at -165 for 3 units.
How much is the card risking?
Every price is laying juice, so the unit figures are the amount being won. The card is 17 units to win and 26.95 units at risk.
What does Rays -1 need?
A Tampa Bay win by two runs or more. A one run Rays win is a push. The Rays have won 10 of Griffin Jax's 20 starts, all 10 by two or more, and the Athletics are 2 and 12 in Jack Perkins' starts.
Why the Twins team total under 3.5?
Max Fried has a 2.73 ERA and has allowed 4 home runs in 99 innings, and teams facing him have scored three or fewer in 11 of his 18 starts. Minnesota has scored three or fewer in 7 of its last 10 games and has a .678 OPS against left handed pitching.
Why the Cardinals at -165?
San Francisco is 26 and 50 on the road and 1 and 6 in Blade Tidwell's starts, and left handed hitters have an .898 OPS against Tidwell. Andre Pallante is 12 and 6 with a 3.45 ERA.
Where can these plays be verified?
All eight were posted with their prices and unit sizes before first pitch on the verified BetLegend record at trustmyrecord.com, and they are graded there afterwards whether they win or lose.
All eight plays were posted with their prices and unit sizes before first pitch on the verified BetLegend record at trustmyrecord.com, and every one of them gets graded there, win or lose.