Chris Sale is 14 and 9 with a 2.18 ERA, 190 strikeouts, and a 0.99 WHIP in 157 innings. The Braves first 5 moneyline is -274 for 2 units to win. That ticket is more than half the risk on a four play card, and first pitch is 4:15 PM Pacific at Truist Park.
4 plays, 6 units to win, 10.67 at risk. The first game is 10:10 AM Pacific in Detroit. The last is 7:10 PM Pacific in Los Angeles.
ON THIS CARD
All Four Plays And The Math
| Play | Price | To Win | Risk | Break Even | First Pitch PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals team total under 3.5 at Tigers | -126 | 2 | 2.52 | 55.75% | 10:10 am |
| New York Yankees ML vs Rays | -157 | 1 | 1.57 | 61.09% | 4:05 pm |
| Atlanta Braves first 5 ML vs Reds | -274 | 2 | 5.48 | 73.26% | 4:15 pm |
| Padres and Dodgers under 8.5 | -110 | 1 | 1.10 | 52.38% | 7:10 pm |
Every price is laying juice, so the unit figure is what the ticket wins, not what it risks. The first 5 ticket is 5.48 of the 10.67 units at risk. These are the prices locked in the contest and written on the BetLegend sheet. The TrustMyRecord sportsbook took the live board on the same lines: Nationals under 3.5 at -130, Yankees at -158, Braves first 5 at -280, and the under still at -110.
Braves First 5 at -274: Sale at 2.18, Abbott at 4.70
A first 5 moneyline grades the lead after five innings. Atlanta has to be ahead. A tie after five pushes. A Cincinnati lead loses the ticket even if Atlanta wins the game later. At -274 the break even rate is 73.26 percent, and the 2 units to win put 5.48 at risk.
Atlanta is 92 and 65 with a run differential of plus 116, and 51 and 28 at home. Cincinnati is 73 and 84 and has been outscored by 159 runs. Sale has made 26 starts. Abbott is 6 and 11 with a 4.70 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in 159 innings. The gap between those two ERAs is the whole ticket. First pitch is 4:15 PM Pacific.
Nationals Team Total Under 3.5: Two Runs, Then Three
Washington under 3.5 wins if the Nationals score 0, 1, 2, or 3. Detroit's score does not grade it. The price is -126, 2 units to win, risk 2.52, break even 55.75 percent. First pitch is 10:10 AM Pacific.
Framber Valdez is 10 and 11 with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in 168.2 innings. Richard Lovelady is the listed Nationals starter, 3 and 4 with a 3.86 ERA in 32.2 innings and a 1.84 WHIP, so this is not a shutdown arm on the Washington side. In the last two games of this series the Nationals scored 2 and then 3. Since September 8 they scored 3 or fewer in 5 of 12 games. The recent series helps. The two week record does not, by itself, clear 55.75 percent.
Yankees at -157: Cole, Seymour, And a Home Price
New York is 90 and 67, run differential plus 134, 43 and 33 at home. Tampa Bay is 96 and 61, plus 86, and 41 and 35 on the road. The Rays have the better record. The Yankees have the better run margin, and they are home. The price is -157, 1 unit to win, risk 1.57, break even 61.09 percent. First pitch is 4:05 PM Pacific.
Gerrit Cole is 9 and 9 with a 3.63 ERA, 123 strikeouts, and a 1.10 WHIP in 121.1 innings. Ian Seymour is 9 and 7 with a 4.38 ERA and 155 strikeouts in 127.1 innings. Seymour misses bats. Cole has the cleaner WHIP and the lower ERA, in fewer innings.
Padres and Dodgers Under 8.5: Yamamoto at 2.51
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is 14 and 8 with a 2.51 ERA, 178 strikeouts, and a 0.87 WHIP in 179 innings. Robbie Ray is 13 and 8 with a 3.60 ERA in 162.1 innings. Los Angeles is 97 and 60, plus 200, and 51 and 28 at home. San Diego is 87 and 70, plus 34, and 38 and 41 on the road. The under is -110, 1 unit to win, risk 1.10. First pitch is 7:10 PM Pacific.
The Padres have not been an under team. Since September 8 their games stayed at 8 runs or fewer only 1 time in 13. Dodger games did it 8 times in 13. The previous game in this series was 7 to 0. The ticket is the two starters, not a Padres trend.
The Argument Against This Card
-274 needs the Braves to be ahead after five about three times in four, and Sale does not pitch the whole first 5 every night. The Nationals scored 3 or fewer in only 5 of their last 12, and Valdez's ERA is 4.06, not a dominant number. Tampa Bay is 96 and 61, six wins better than New York, and the Yankees are laying -157 anyway. San Diego's recent games have been high scoring, and one 7 to 0 result does not undo 12 overs.
The card is 6 units to win. It is not 6 units at risk. Losing every ticket costs 10.67.
Card FAQ
What are the BetLegend plays for Wednesday September 23?
Four MLB plays. Atlanta Braves first 5 moneyline at -274 for 2 units, Washington Nationals team total under 3.5 at -126 for 2 units, New York Yankees moneyline at -157 for 1 unit, and Padres and Dodgers under 8.5 at -110 for 1 unit.
How much is the card risking?
Every price is laying juice, so the unit figures are the amount being won. The card is 6 units to win and 10.67 units at risk. The Braves first 5 ticket is 5.48 of that risk.
Why the Braves first 5 at -274?
Chris Sale is 14 and 9 with a 2.18 ERA, 190 strikeouts, and a 0.99 WHIP in 157 innings. Andrew Abbott is 6 and 11 with a 4.70 ERA. Atlanta is 51 and 28 at home. The price needs 73.26 percent.
Where can these plays be verified?
All four are on the BetLegend sheet at these prices, and all four are locked on the TrustMyRecord sportsbook. The sportsbook tickets took the live board: Nationals under 3.5 at -130, Yankees at -158, Braves first 5 at -280, and the under 8.5 at -110.