The Falcons depth chart lists Tua Tagovailoa first and Michael Penix Jr. second, and neither one will play in Pittsburgh on Sunday. Tagovailoa is out with an oblique injury. Penix is out with a knee. The job goes to Cooper Rush, third on that depth chart, and on Saturday Rush came down with back spasms. He is still expected to start.
9.5 units to win, 17.35 at risk. Every price is a minus number, so the unit figures are what gets won. Five plays across four games on the first Sunday of the 2026 season.
ON THIS CARD
- All Five Plays And The Math
- Steelers -300: Atlanta Starts Its Third Quarterback
- Cowboys -165 And Over 25.5: The League's Worst Defense Is On The Other Sideline
- Texans +1.5: The Second Best Defense In Football, At Home
- Cardinals Under 18.5: No Conner, No Benson, And A Rookie Who May Not Play
- The Argument Against These Five
- Card FAQ
All Five Plays And The Math
| Play | Price | To Win | Risk | Break Even | Kickoff ET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers ML | -300 | 3 | 9.00 | 75.00% | 1:00 |
| Houston Texans +1.5 | -111 | 1.5 | 1.67 | 52.61% | 1:00 |
| Arizona Cardinals team total under 18.5 | -108 | 1 | 1.08 | 51.92% | 4:25 |
| Dallas Cowboys ML | -165 | 2 | 3.30 | 62.26% | 8:20 |
| Dallas Cowboys team total over 25.5 | -115 | 2 | 2.30 | 53.49% | 8:20 |
Read the risk column first. Pittsburgh at -300 risks 9 units to win 3, which is 51.9 percent of everything at risk on the card sitting on one game. The two Dallas tickets add another 5.6 units on one offense. The whole card needs 64.62 percent to break even.
Steelers -300: Atlanta Starts Its Third Quarterback
Here is what the Falcons quarterback room looks like this morning, straight off the injury report.
| Falcons QB | Status | 2025 passing |
|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | Out, oblique | 2,660 yards, 20 TD, 15 INT (Miami) |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Out, knee | 1,982 yards, 9 TD, 3 INT |
| Cooper Rush | Starting, back spasms Saturday | 303 yards, 0 TD, 4 INT (Baltimore) |
| Jack Strand | Backup | No career passing line on ESPN |
Rush has filled in before, and his 2024 in Dallas (1,844 yards, 12 touchdowns, 5 interceptions) is the best version of the argument for him. But the most recent thing he did on a football field was complete 34 of 52 passes for Baltimore with no touchdowns and four picks, a 48.8 rating. Now he gets a road opener with a sore back, and the backup behind him has no NFL passing line on his ESPN page at all.
This was not a dangerous offense even at full strength. Atlanta scored 20.76 points a game in 2025, 24th in the league, and went 8-9. Pittsburgh went 10-7 and 6-3 at Acrisure Stadium, and Aaron Rodgers is back under center after a 2025 of 3,322 yards, 24 touchdowns and just 7 interceptions.
The one thing to watch on the Pittsburgh side is corner Joey Porter Jr., questionable with a back injury. Jalen Ramsey was a full participant in practice. The forecast is 80 degrees with a 34 percent chance of rain.
Cowboys -165 And Over 25.5: The League's Worst Defense Is On The Other Sideline
Here is the strange part of backing Dallas: the worst defense in the NFL last season was the Cowboys. Dallas allowed 30.06 points a game in 2025, 32nd of 32. That is exactly why these two tickets belong together. The Cowboys games were track meets, and Dallas usually kept up.
| 2025 regular season | Dallas Cowboys | New York Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-9-1 | 4-13 |
| Points scored per game | 27.71 (7th) | 22.41 (17th) |
| Points allowed per game | 30.06 (32nd) | 25.82 (26th) |
| Games with 26 or more | Scored it in 11 of 17 | Allowed it in 9 of 17 |
Eleven of seventeen is 64.7 percent against a team total price that needs 53.49. Dak Prescott threw for 4,552 yards and 30 touchdowns last season, and he has CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens on the outside. He did not take a snap in the preseason, which is worth knowing for a first drive.
The two meetings last year went 40-37 Dallas in Arlington and 34-17 Giants at MetLife in week 18. New York has Jaxson Dart back at quarterback, and its best receiver, Malik Nabers, is questionable with a knee. Dallas will be without guard Tyler Smith, who is on injured reserve with a thumb injury.
The moneyline at -165 needs 62.26 percent. The team total over is the better price on paper. The ML is there because a Dallas offense that scores 26 against this defense usually wins the game, and the two tickets should be read as one position of 5.6 units.
Texans +1.5: The Second Best Defense In Football, At Home
Buffalo is the favorite here, and the Bills earned that. They went 12-5 and scored 28.29 a game, fifth in the league, with Josh Allen throwing for 3,668 yards and 25 touchdowns. Houston also went 12-5, and did it the other way.
| 2025 regular season | Houston Texans | Buffalo Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-5 | 12-5 |
| Home or road record | 7-2 at home | 5-3 on the road |
| Points allowed per game | 17.35 (2nd) | 21.47 (12th) |
| Head to head | Texans 23, Bills 19 in Houston, week 12 | |
Houston lost twice at home all season, 20-19 to Tampa Bay and 18-15 to Denver. The first of those is a win for this ticket at +1.5. C.J. Stroud is back after a 2025 of 3,041 yards, 19 touchdowns and 8 interceptions in 14 games.
The price of the ticket is the receiving room. Tank Dell and Jayden Higgins are both on injured reserve, so Nico Collins and Jaylin Noel carry it, and tackle Braden Smith is on IR as well. That is most of why this is 1.5 units and not more. Buffalo lists defensive tackle T.J. Sanders and tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. as questionable.
Cardinals Under 18.5: No Conner, No Benson, And A Rookie Who May Not Play
Arizona opens under Mike LaFleur with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, and the backfield is in pieces. James Conner is on injured reserve with a foot injury. Trey Benson is back on injured reserve with a knee. Rookie Jeremiyah Love, the name at the top of the running back depth chart, is questionable with an ankle. Guard Isaiah Adams is out.
The Chargers allowed 20.0 points a game last season, ninth fewest, and they are 9.5 point favorites with a total of 47.5. Do that math and the market has Arizona at about 19 points before anyone checks the injury report. This ticket sits a half point under the market's own number, on a team playing without James Conner and Trey Benson.
Brissett was genuinely good in 2025: 3,366 yards, 23 touchdowns, 8 interceptions and a 94.1 rating in 14 games. He was also sacked 43 times. Take away the run game and those sacks get easier to come by.
The Argument Against These Five
Arizona scored 19 or more in 13 of its 17 games last season. That is the strongest number against anything on this card, and it is why the Cardinals under is the smallest play at 1 unit. The case is this year's injury report, not last year's scoreboard.
ESPN's matchup predictor has Pittsburgh at 64.6 percent and Dallas at 59.1. Both are below the break even on those moneylines, 75.00 and 62.26. The bet on Pittsburgh is that a third string quarterback with a sore back, on the road, is worse than any general projection gives him credit for.
The Dallas defense was the worst in football. If the Giants get to 30, the moneyline is in trouble even when the team total over cashes. And week 1 is the week last season's numbers mean the least, for every team on this card.
All five plays were on the verified record with their prices before kickoff, and all five get graded there whether they win or lose.
Card FAQ
What are the BetLegend NFL plays for Sunday September 13?
Five plays. Pittsburgh Steelers moneyline at -300 for 3 units, Dallas Cowboys moneyline at -165 for 2 units, Dallas Cowboys team total over 25.5 at -115 for 2 units, Houston Texans +1.5 at -111 for 1.5 units and Arizona Cardinals team total under 18.5 at -108 for 1 unit.
How much is the card risking?
Every price is a minus number, so the unit figures are the amount being won. The card is 9.5 units to win and 17.35 units at risk, which works out to a 64.62 percent break even across the whole thing.
Why the Steelers at -300?
Atlanta's top two quarterbacks are both out. Tua Tagovailoa (oblique) and Michael Penix Jr. (knee) were ruled out, so Cooper Rush starts. Rush threw 52 passes for Baltimore in 2025 with no touchdowns and four interceptions, and he had back spasms on Saturday. The backup behind him is Jack Strand.
Why two tickets on the Cowboys?
Dallas scored 27.71 points a game in 2025, seventh in the league, and got to 26 or more in 11 of its 17 games. The Giants allowed 25.82 a game, 26th. Both tickets lean on the Dallas offense, so together they carry 5.6 units of risk on one team.
Why Houston +1.5 against Buffalo?
Houston allowed 17.35 points a game in 2025, second fewest in the NFL, went 7-2 at home and beat Buffalo 23-19 in Houston last November. One of its two home losses came by a single point, which +1.5 covers.
Where can these plays be verified?
All five were posted with their prices and unit sizes before kickoff on the verified BetLegend record at trustmyrecord.com, and they are graded there afterwards whether they win or lose.