Army has thrown 24 passes this season. Temple's defense has given up 892 passing yards in three games and just 352 on the ground. That's the whole handicap in two sentences: the thing Temple does worst is the thing Army almost never does. Army is laying 3.5 points in Philadelphia this afternoon, and I'm taking the points with the Owls.
1 play, 1 unit to win, 1.08 at risk. Army at Temple kicks at 1:00 Pacific on ESPN from Lincoln Financial Field.
ON THIS CARD
The Play And The Math
| Play | Price | To Win | Risk | Break Even | Kickoff PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Temple +3.5 vs Army | -108 | 1 | 1.08 | 51.92% | 1:00 pm |
At -108 the ticket needs to cash a little under 52 percent of the time. The half point is the reason to play it now. An Army win by a field goal, the most common margin in football, still pays at 3.5.
Temple Can Run, And Temple Can Stop The Run
Temple is 1 and 2, and the record undersells the team. The Owls lost 27 to 9 to Penn State and then lost 49 to 48 at Toledo on a Saturday when they put up 425 yards on the road. Through all three games they've run the ball the same way, every week.
| Temple game | Result | Rushing yards | Carries | Rush yards allowed | Pass yards allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Rhode Island | Won 38 to 14 | 227 | 45 | 97 | 195 |
| vs Penn State | Lost 27 to 9 | 176 | 33 | 148 | 268 |
| at Toledo | Lost 49 to 48 | 261 | 49 | 107 | 429 |
| Total | 1 and 2 | 664 | 127 | 352 | 892 |
That's 5.2 yards a carry on offense, including 5.3 against Penn State. And on defense, 3.96 yards a carry allowed. Nobody has run on this team. John Alan Richter threw for 429 yards at Toledo and Rocco Becht completed 21 of 27 for Penn State, so the damage has all come through the air.
Army isn't built to do that damage. Cale Hellums went 4 of 9 against Bryant and 9 of 10 against South Florida. The Black Knights want 50 carries and 35 minutes of possession, and they're walking into the one part of Temple's defense that has held up for three weeks.
Ajani Sheppard threw all but one of Temple's passes at Toledo, going 12 of 22 for 164 yards and 3 touchdowns with 66 more on the ground, and Samuel Brown V ran 15 times for 109. That's an offense that just scored 48 points on the road.
Army's Only Real Test Went The Wrong Way
Throw out the 59 to 3 win over Bryant, an FCS team. Army ran for 569 yards in it and I'm not reading anything into that. Army's one FBS game was at home against South Florida on September 12, and Army lost it 28 to 24.
The box score is worse than the final. South Florida outgained Army 369 to 347 while holding the ball for only 24 minutes. The option produced 219 yards on 51 carries, 4.3 a rush, and Michael Van Buren Jr. threw for 239 yards at 8 yards an attempt against the Army secondary. Army then sat out last Saturday with an open week.
So the favorite here is a team that lost its conference opener at home and got outgained doing it, laying more than a field goal on the road against a team that has run for over 175 yards in every game.
The Market Is Leaning Army
I'll be straight about this part. DraftKings opened Army -3 at -110 on both sides, per the odds feed on ESPN's game page. It's Army -3.5 now, and the Army moneyline has gone from -155 at the open to -198. ESPN's matchup predictor has Army winning 53.6 percent of the time.
That's money coming in on the Black Knights, and I'm on the other side of it. The good news is what the move handed us: the hook. At +3 a three point Army win is a push. At +3.5 it's a winner, and I'll take a 53.6 percent favorite getting 3.5 points in a game that projects close.
The Argument Against This Play
Temple's pass defense is real trouble. 892 passing yards allowed in three games is a lot, and if Army decides to throw more than it has, Hellums has completed 13 of 19 passes with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions.
Army had an extra week. The open week gave the Black Knights two weeks to prepare for Temple, and the option is hard enough to defend on a normal week.
Temple has lost two straight, and both losses came with the Owls giving up 27 or more. A team that just allowed 49 points can't count on its defense to win a close one.
FAQ
What is the BetLegend play for Friday September 25 in college football?
Temple +3.5 against Army at -108 for 1 unit to win, 1.08 units at risk. Kickoff is 1:00 PM Pacific on ESPN at Lincoln Financial Field.
Why take Temple +3.5?
Temple has allowed 352 rushing yards on 89 carries in three games, 3.96 a carry, and has run for 664 yards of its own. Army has thrown 24 passes all season and lost its only FBS game 28 to 24 at home to South Florida while getting outgained 369 to 347.
Has the line moved?
Yes, toward Army. DraftKings opened Army -3 at -110, per the odds feed on ESPN's game page, and it is Army -3.5 now. The Army moneyline moved from -155 to -198.
What is the biggest risk?
Temple's pass defense. It has allowed 892 passing yards in three games, including 429 at Toledo. Army also had an open week to prepare.
Where can this play be verified?
It was posted with its price and unit size before kickoff on the verified BetLegend record at trustmyrecord.com, and it is graded there afterwards whether it wins or loses.
This play was posted with its price and unit size before kickoff on the verified BetLegend record at trustmyrecord.com, and it gets graded there, win or lose.