Carlos Rodon is 6 and 3 with a 2.85 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. Nick Martinez is 15 and 4 with a 2.91 ERA across 173.1 innings. The Yankees are 89 and 66 at home in the Bronx, and the price on New York in Game 1 is -141 for 2 units to win. That game started at 10:05 AM Pacific. The other four plays are still in front of us.
5 plays, 8 units to win, 9.90 at risk. The last first pitch is 6:40 PM Pacific in Sacramento.
ON THIS CARD
- All Five Plays And The Math
- Yankees Game 1 at -141: Rodon, Martinez, And a 10:05 AM Start
- Brewers and Phillies Under 7.5: Wheeler at 2.99, May at 4.61
- Red Sox Team Total Under 3.5: Two Starters Under a 3.10 ERA
- Game 2 Under 6.5: Fried and Rasmussen
- Angels at -105: A Pickem Price and a 136 Run Gap
- The Argument Against This Card
- Card FAQ
All Five Plays And The Math
| Play | Price | To Win | Risk | Break Even | First Pitch PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees ML, Game 1 vs Rays | -141 | 2 | 2.82 | 58.51% | 10:05 am |
| Brewers and Phillies under 7.5 | -130 | 1.5 | 1.95 | 56.52% | 3:40 pm |
| Boston Red Sox team total under 3.5 | -130 | 1 | 1.30 | 56.52% | 3:45 pm |
| Rays and Yankees under 6.5, Game 2 | -115 | 1.5 | 1.73 | 53.49% | 4:05 pm |
| Los Angeles Angels ML at Athletics | -105 | 2 | 2.10 | 51.22% | 6:40 pm |
Every price is laying juice, so the unit figure is what the ticket wins, not what it risks. The two 2 unit tickets, Yankees Game 1 and the Angels, are 4.92 of the 9.90 units at risk. The three smaller tickets make up the rest. Prices are the YouWager numbers on the BetLegend sheet.
Yankees Game 1 at -141: Rodon, Martinez, And a 10:05 AM Start
New York is 89 and 66 with a run differential of plus 137, 42 and 32 at home. Tampa Bay is 95 and 60 with a run differential of plus 83, 40 and 34 on the road, and 8 and 2 in its last ten. The Rays have the better record. The Yankees have the better run margin, and they are home.
Rodon has made 16 starts and thrown 79 innings, so the outing is usually short of five innings, with 86 strikeouts, 38 walks, and 7 home runs allowed. Martinez has made 30 starts and thrown 173.1 innings, with 102 strikeouts, 24 walks, and a 1.06 WHIP. One starter misses bats and does not stay in the game. The other stays in the game and does not walk people.
This ticket is 2 units to win at -141, which risks 2.82. First pitch was 10:05 AM Pacific. A sportsbook ticket has to be in before first pitch, so this one lives on the BetLegend sheet. The four plays below were locked on TrustMyRecord before their games.
Brewers and Phillies Under 7.5: Wheeler at 2.99, May at 4.61
Milwaukee is 98 and 58 with a run differential of plus 202, the best record and the best margin in the sport, 46 and 32 on the road. Philadelphia is 86 and 70, plus 29, 41 and 34 at home. Zack Wheeler is 13 and 5 with a 2.99 ERA, 177 strikeouts, and a 1.06 WHIP in 150.1 innings. Dustin May is 7 and 9 with a 4.61 ERA in 140.2 innings.
The under is 1.5 units to win at -130, risk 1.95, first pitch 3:40 PM Pacific at Citizens Bank Park. The recent games do not help the under. From September 5 through September 20, Philadelphia played 15 games and only 5 stayed under 7.5. Milwaukee played 14 and only 6 stayed under 7.5. The ticket is the Wheeler start, not a cold streak.
Red Sox Team Total Under 3.5: Two Starters Under a 3.10 ERA
Boston is 84 and 72, plus 80, 38 and 37 at home. Cleveland is 81 and 75 with a run differential of plus 2. Payton Tolle is 9 and 6 with a 3.02 ERA and 166 strikeouts in 143 innings. Parker Messick is 12 and 9 with a 2.57 ERA and 186 strikeouts in 178.1 innings. The bet is Boston's runs, not the game total. Boston under 3.5 at -130, 1 unit to win, risk 1.30, first pitch 3:45 PM Pacific.
From September 5 through September 20, Boston scored 3 runs or fewer in 7 of 14 games. That is half, which is about what a 56.52 percent break even price is asking you to clear. The case is the two arms, not a team that has stopped scoring.
Game 2 Under 6.5: Fried and Rasmussen
Same ballpark, second game, 4:05 PM Pacific. Max Fried is 5 and 4 with a 2.63 ERA and 100 strikeouts in 106 innings. Drew Rasmussen is 15 and 5 with a 2.72 ERA and 163 strikeouts in 165.1 innings. The under is 6.5 at -115, 1.5 units to win, risk 1.73.
The Yankees have not been a low scoring side lately. From September 5 through September 20 they played 14 games and only 2 finished under 6.5. The Rays were under 6.5 in 7 of 14. The number is shorter than the 7.5 in Philadelphia because both of these starters have ERAs in the 2.60s.
Angels at -105: A Pickem Price and a 136 Run Gap
Los Angeles is 60 and 96, run differential -87, 26 and 49 on the road. The Athletics are 61 and 95, run differential -223, 29 and 46 at home. The gap between those two margins is 136 runs. The price is -105, 2 units to win, risk 2.10, first pitch 6:40 PM Pacific.
Yusei Kikuchi is 1 and 6 with a 5.02 ERA in 57.1 innings. Brady Basso is 1 and 3 with a 4.50 ERA in 40 innings. Neither starter is the reason to like the side. The reason on the sheet is the price. A team that has been outscored by 87 runs is getting a coin flip against a team that has been outscored by 223.
The Argument Against This Card
Tampa Bay has the better record, the better last ten, and a starter who has already thrown 173.1 innings of 2.91 ball. New York is laying -141 anyway. The Brewers have outscored people by 202 runs, and both of these clubs have been going over 7.5 more often than under it for two weeks. Boston has scored 3 or fewer only half the time in that same window, and the under still needs 56.52 percent. The Angels are 26 and 49 on the road, and the man starting for them has a 5.02 ERA.
The card is 8 units to win. It is not 8 units at risk. Losing every ticket costs 9.90.
Card FAQ
What are the BetLegend plays for Tuesday September 22?
Five MLB plays. New York Yankees Game 1 moneyline at -141 for 2 units, Brewers and Phillies under 7.5 at -130 for 1.5 units, Boston Red Sox team total under 3.5 at -130 for 1 unit, Rays and Yankees Game 2 under 6.5 at -115 for 1.5 units, and Los Angeles Angels moneyline at -105 for 2 units.
How much is the card risking?
Every price is laying juice, so the unit figures are the amount being won. The card is 8 units to win and 9.90 units at risk.
Why the Yankees at -141 in Game 1?
Carlos Rodon is 6 and 3 with a 2.85 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. The Yankees are 42 and 32 at home with a run differential of plus 137. Nick Martinez is 15 and 4 with a 2.91 ERA in 173.1 innings, and the Rays are 95 and 60.
Where can these plays be verified?
All five are on the BetLegend sheet with these prices. Brewers and Phillies under 7.5, the Red Sox team total, Game 2 under 6.5, and the Angels moneyline are also locked on TrustMyRecord. Yankees Game 1 had first pitch at 10:05 AM Pacific, and the sportsbook does not take a ticket after first pitch.