Andersen Versus Demidov: Canadiens At Hurricanes In Eastern Conference Finals Game 1

Eastern Conference FinalsGame 1Lenovo Center

The only NHL game on the schedule tonight is the start of the Eastern Conference Finals at Lenovo Center in Raleigh, with the Carolina Hurricanes opening as the minus-200 home moneyline favorite and the Montreal Canadiens pricing as the plus-180 road dog. The total has settled at 5.5 goals. That is the price the Hurricanes get for going 8-0 through the first two rounds; that is the price the Canadiens get for winning their second straight Game 7 elimination night on Monday and entering this series as the longest-priced underdog the Hurricanes have faced in the playoffs to date. The futures market still has Carolina in the minus-250 to minus-285 range to win the series and Montreal in the plus-200 to plus-230 area.

The opening read for any series with this kind of seed and conditioning gap is the rest gap. Carolina has not played since sweeping Philadelphia in the second round, with five full days between Game 4 of the second round and tonight. Montreal closed out Buffalo on Monday night and is on three days' rest. Three days is enough for a playoff hockey team to flush a Game 7 hangover; five days is enough for the rust questions to be legitimate. Both factors are baked into the line, but the Carolina rust is the more interesting variable in the first ten minutes.

The Andersen Story

Frederik Andersen is the single biggest reason Carolina is the price it is. The 36-year-old has gone 8-0 through two rounds with a 1.12 goals-against average and a .950 save percentage, including two shutouts. The deeper number is the .925 save percentage on high-danger chances, which is the best mark of any goaltender still alive in the playoffs. Andersen stopped 191 of 201 shots in the first two rounds and 49 of 53 high-danger shots on goal. That is the kind of postseason that wins a Conn Smythe if it continues for two more series.

The variance question is whether Andersen can sustain a .950 save percentage against a Canadiens offense that lit up Buffalo by a 39-23 advantage in scoring chances when Ivan Demidov was on the ice. That is exactly the kind of high-rate, high-chance work that has historically been the only thing that beats Andersen. The Hurricanes have built a system that funnels low-quality looks to the slot and pushes high-quality looks out to the perimeter; if Montreal manufactures clean looks at the elbow, the .950 mark will come down.

The Hurricanes Penalty Kill

The other reason Carolina is at minus-200 is the penalty kill. Through two rounds, the Hurricanes have allowed only two power-play goals on 40 chances. That is a 95.0 percent kill rate, the best mark of any team in the field. That kill embarrassed Philadelphia's last-placed power play in the second round and the more capable Ottawa power play in the first round. Montreal scored 13 power-play goals in their first two rounds (13-for-52, 25 percent) and is the most credible man-advantage threat the Carolina kill has faced this spring.

The math on the special-teams matchup is direct. If Carolina kills four of the four power plays Montreal earns tonight, the Canadiens have to win the five-on-five battle outright, which is a tall order against a Carolina forecheck that has rolled four lines through eight straight wins. If Montreal pops one power-play goal in the first 40 minutes, the road team has a real path. The penalty-kill numbers are the most direct sign that the gap between these two teams is not as wide as the seeding suggests.

The Demidov Question

Ivan Demidov, the Calder runner-up, is the most-watched young player in the playoffs and the engine of the Montreal offense Carolina has to contain. Demidov and his linemates combined for 10 goals and 20 points against Buffalo, and his line produced a 39-23 scoring-chance edge over the second round. Through 14 playoff games he has two goals and five assists. Those individual numbers undersell what he is doing inside his line, which is the thing the Carolina coaching staff is trying to solve heading into tonight.

The matchup work for the Canadiens centers on whether Martin St. Louis can dictate the deployment Carolina forces him into. Rod Brind'Amour has the last change at Lenovo Center, which means Jordan Staal and the Jaccob Slavin pairing are matched against Demidov as much as physically possible. If Montreal can get Demidov out against the second pairing or the third line, the chance differential carries over. If not, this becomes the third straight series in which the Hurricanes shrink another team's top creator.

The Season Series Tell

One detail the futures market has clearly weighed: Montreal swept Carolina 3-0 in the regular season despite Carolina holding a nearly 2-to-1 advantage in scoring chances across those three games. The Hurricanes' team save percentage in those games was a brutal .750, which is the kind of number that resets almost immediately in the playoffs and is the reason Montreal won the regular-season head-to-head without actually playing the better hockey. The Hurricanes will treat tonight as a season-series rematch with the goaltending finally on their side. The Canadiens will treat it as evidence that they can generate the rate of looks needed to score, even against this Carolina defensive structure.

The 5.5 Total

The 5.5 total is the median number across both Lenovo Center expectations and the rest of the bracket. Carolina has played to under 5.5 in six of eight playoff games behind the Andersen run. Montreal has played to over 5.5 in five of their last seven games behind the Demidov line and a healthy power play. The 5.5 number is the market's read that the Andersen variance still wins, but barely. A two-one game in either direction with a late empty-netter is the most common Game 1 script in this matchup; a four-three over is a real possibility if either special-teams unit cracks.

The Series Math

Carolina owns home ice in this series, which means Games 1, 2, 5 and 7 are at Lenovo Center. The Hurricanes are also 0-4 in the Eastern Conference Finals since 2006, which is the historical line every long-time Carolina fan can recite. That fact does not change the on-ice math tonight; it does explain why the futures market has Carolina at minus-250 instead of minus-300 with a series that, by the structural numbers, should be more lopsided. The Canadiens are the live underdog of this round.

Injury Report

Both teams enter Game 1 in good health for a Conference Finals opener. Carolina's listed scratches are Mike Reilly, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Nicolas Deslauriers and backup goaltender Pyotr Kochetkov, with Alexander Nikishin already back from a concussion that kept him out in the first round. Montreal has Patrik Laine on long-term IR with an abdominal issue, Brendan Gallagher, David Reinbacher, Jayden Struble, Joe Veleno and Florian Xhekaj listed as out, along with backup goaltender Samuel Montembeault. Frederik Andersen is the confirmed starter for Carolina; the Canadiens are expected to roll out their full top-six and the same defensive pairings that closed out the Buffalo series on Monday.

What To Watch

Three checkpoints. First, the first ten minutes for Carolina's rust and the early Demidov shifts. Second, the first Carolina penalty kill versus the Montreal power play. Third, Andersen's first eight to ten high-danger looks. If the Hurricanes survive the first ten minutes, kill their first power-play opportunity and Andersen continues stopping high-quality looks, the home team takes Game 1 going away. If any one of those three breaks, the Canadiens have a real path to flipping home ice.