Rockies vs Dodgers: Baseball's Worst Record Opens A Series Against Its Best

There is no gentle way to frame this one. Colorado arrives at Dodger Stadium at 36-54, one of the worst records in the major leagues, to open a series against a Los Angeles club sitting at 59-31, the best record in baseball. Twenty-three games separate these two rosters in the standings, and Monday night's opener is less a question of who wins than how competitive the Rockies can make it. The moneyline reflects the gap: Los Angeles sits near -210 at home with Colorado priced as a live underdog in the +175 to +222 range depending on the book, one of the widest lines the Dodgers have carried all season.

This is where the story gets more interesting than the standings suggest, though. Neither Monday starter is having a season befitting his team's record. Colorado's ace-turned-innings-eater has scuffled to a rough year, and the Dodgers give the ball to a pitcher who joined the rotation only a few weeks ago and has been solid, not spectacular. The gap here is almost entirely about the two rosters around the mound, not the two men on it.

A Tale Of Two Seasons

Los Angeles has been the best team in the sport from wire to wire, riding the deepest lineup in baseball and a run differential that no other club approaches. Colorado, by contrast, has been buried in the National League West basement most of the season, unable to find consistency in the rotation or enough offense to cover for it. A 23-game gap between two teams in the same season is rare even in a sport with this much variance, and it sets up Monday's opener as a measuring-stick game for just how far the Rockies still are from respectability, and how much margin the Dodgers can play with even on an ordinary Monday in July.

For Los Angeles, series like this one are about staying sharp without taking anything for granted. Teams with this much roster depth have been known to overlook the also-rans of the league, and a light-hitting but occasionally streaky Colorado lineup is capable of stealing an early game if the Dodgers are anything less than focused out of the gate.

The Pitching Matchup

Colorado sends left-hander Kyle Freeland to the mound, and his season has been a struggle: 2-7 with a 7.25 ERA, numbers that reflect a rotation that has been overwhelmed for long stretches. Freeland has had better years in Colorado's thin air, and his stuff has not translated to swing-and-miss the way it once did, leaving him at the mercy of a suspect Rockies defense and one of the league's more difficult home parks to pitch in even before he leaves it.

Los Angeles counters with Eric Lauer, who has settled into the Dodgers' rotation at 4-5 with a 4.84 ERA since making his club debut. Lauer's numbers are not overpowering, but they represent a real step up in stability for a Dodgers staff that has dealt with its own injury attrition, and facing a Colorado offense that has struggled on the road all season gives him a favorable matchup to build on.

Road Woes For Colorado

The Rockies' offense is built around Coors Field's thin air, and like most Colorado clubs, the numbers fall off a cliff away from altitude. A lineup that can look dangerous at home has consistently been one of the least productive road offenses in the National League this season, a pattern that makes an already lopsided moneyline look even more justified once you separate home and road splits. Facing a Dodgers pitching staff that has been excellent at limiting damage all year only compounds the problem.

The counterweight, such as it is, belongs to variance. Bad teams beat great teams in single games far more often than a 23-game gap in the standings would suggest, and if Freeland can find one of his better outings while Lauer has an off night, the Rockies have shown flashes of competitiveness even during their roughest stretches this season.

Keys To Victory: Rockies

Score early and force the Dodgers' bullpen into the game before the middle innings. Freeland cannot be asked to hold a lead against this lineup for six or seven innings, so Colorado's best path is a crooked early number that changes the math for Los Angeles' bench. Beyond that, disciplined at-bats against a Dodgers pitching staff that does not hand out free passes, and clean defense behind Freeland, are the margin between a competitive game and a laugher.

Keys To Victory: Dodgers

Attack Freeland immediately and often. A pitcher carrying a 7.25 ERA into a start against the deepest lineup in the sport is exactly the matchup Los Angeles should be teeing off on from the first inning, and a fast start would let the Dodgers manage Lauer's workload carefully rather than pushing him into a jam. The other key is simply avoiding complacency against an inferior opponent, closing out the type of game a great team is supposed to close out without the letdown that has occasionally bitten elite rosters against also-rans.

Market Context

A Dodgers moneyline in the -210 to -300 range across books is a steep price, but the components justify it: the best record in baseball, the deepest roster in the sport, and an opponent with the worst run differential of any team on the schedule this week. The gap between these two clubs is about as wide as the sport produces in July, and the market has priced it accordingly. The one caveat worth flagging is that Freeland, whatever his overall numbers, has had scattered quality starts even in a rough season, which keeps this from being an automatic laugher on paper.

Final Thoughts

Twenty-three games in the standings is about as wide a gap as baseball produces between two teams sharing a schedule, and Monday's series opener puts it on full display: the best record in the sport at home against the worst, an ace who has lost his form against a rotation piece who has quietly stabilized things in Los Angeles. Whether Colorado can make it competitive or the Dodgers cruise the way this price expects, the opener sets the tone for a series that says more about the standings than either individual pitching line does. For the rest of Monday's slate, see the full MLB board.