Seven Champions League Places Are Left, And Three Of Them Start Tonight

This is the tie of the round and the market knows it. DraftKings prices Lyon at -125 to win in Istanbul, with Fenerbahce at +400 and the draw at +220. A visiting side being the outright favourite in the first leg of a two-legged European qualifier is unusual on its own. It is more unusual when the home ground is one of the loudest in Europe.

The UEFA club coefficients explain the shape of it. Lyon enter at 65.750 and Fenerbahce at 57.750, the two highest ratings anywhere in this round, and both clubs arrive through the League Path, the route reserved for teams that did not win their domestic league. Neither of these is a qualifier making up the numbers.

Both came through the third qualifying round without much trouble. Fenerbahce eliminated Sturm Graz 3-0 on aggregate and closed it out with a 1-0 win in Austria. Lyon put Sparta Praha away 4-2 on aggregate after a 3-0 home leg. The second leg is on August 25 or 26, which means whatever happens tonight, nothing is finished.

Dinamo Zagreb did not need two legs to settle the previous round. They put Kauno Zalgiris away 7-1 on aggregate, taking the away leg 2-1 to complete it, and they arrive with a UEFA coefficient of 46.5 against 8.247 for Viking. That is the widest ranking gap of any tie played tonight.

The pricing does not reflect the gap. Dinamo are only -120 to win the first leg, Viking are +450 and the draw sits at +190. In a Champions Path fixture where the home side is five and a half times better rated by coefficient, a -120 price is the market pricing in the format rather than the teams: first legs are cagey, and Dinamo have no reason to chase a three-goal cushion in August.

Viking come through the Norwegian route into the Champions Path, the bracket set aside for domestic champions from smaller associations. Their reward for surviving it is a trip to Zagreb, then a home leg on August 25 or 26 with the tie still alive if they keep it close.

Look at the three prices in order: draw +115, AEK Athens +180, Levski Sofia +310. The draw is favoured over both teams, and the home side is the longest of the three. Across all three ties tonight, this is the only market where the tie ending level is the most likely single outcome.

Levski earned the trip. They knocked out Kairat Almaty 2-0 on aggregate, and the decisive leg was a 1-0 win away in Almaty. That is the sort of result that gets ignored because of the name on the shirt: their UEFA coefficient is 7.0, the lowest of any club playing tonight.

AEK Athens carry a coefficient of 24.0 and the weight of expectation that comes with a Greek club in the Champions Path. The read from the market is not that AEK are much better, it is that neither side is likely to break the other open in a first leg. Second leg in Athens on August 25 or 26.