Fourteen Of Tuesday’s Fifteen Totals Sit Between 7.5 And 9

Carlos Rodon was activated from the 15-day injured list on the morning of this game. His last pitch that counted was June 28 at Fenway Park, five innings on one hit with four walks and six strikeouts, and left elbow inflammation put him away retroactive to June 30. Two rehab outings later, Scranton on August 8 and Somerset on August 13, he takes the ball in Baltimore.

The body of work before the break was good and slightly wild: a 3.30 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP and a .195 opponent average across 46.1 innings and nine starts, with 52 strikeouts and 26 walks. New York does not need him to be perfect. The Yankees carry a 3.26 team ERA, the best in the American League, and on the road that figure drops to 2.94 with 225 runs allowed across 66 games.

Shane Baz has the harder assignment and the messier season, 4-12 with a 4.00 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP and a .268 opponent average over 139.1 innings. He threw eight innings of two-run ball with nine strikeouts at Texas on August 7, then Minnesota hit him for nine hits and five runs in three innings on August 12. DraftKings has this one at a coin flip, Yankees -106 and Orioles -101, with a total of 8.5.

Braxton Ashcraft threw a complete game at Miami on August 13. Nine innings, three hits, one earned run, ten strikeouts, 85 pitches. That is the kind of night that reframes a season, and Ashcraft is now 12-5 with a 3.82 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP and 155 strikeouts against 33 walks in 141.1 innings.

Keider Montero counters with the better rate line. He is 9-7 with a 3.22 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP across 128.2 innings, and his last outing was six and a third innings of shutout ball against Cleveland on August 13. Detroit's staff allows 487 runs, third fewest in the American League, on a 3.56 ERA.

Pittsburgh scores more than any team on this board except the Nationals and Cubs, 638 runs on a .743 OPS, and DraftKings makes the Pirates a -147 home favorite with a total of 8. The Pirates have also lost their most recent game and sit 17 games out at 61-66, so this is a talent-versus-standings mismatch of the sort that fills up an August board.

Foster Griffin is 13-4. That is the most wins of any pitcher working tonight, and he has done it on a 60-65 team with a 3.25 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP and 125 strikeouts against 33 walks across 138.1 innings. The 22 home runs allowed are the blemish, and two of them came in a four-inning, five-run night against the Mets on August 6.

Carson Whisenhunt brings the roughest line on the board: a 6.11 ERA, a 1.71 WHIP and 18 walks in 28 innings across six starts. He did settle down last time out, five and two thirds of one-run ball against Houston on August 11 on 96 pitches, but the walk rate has not moved.

San Francisco is 51-73 and 22-40 on the road. Cleveland scores the third fewest runs in the sport at 494, which is why a game between a -182 favorite and a lineup this quiet still only carries a total of 8.

Andrew Abbott has walked 64 hitters in 133 innings. That is 4.33 per nine from a pitcher whose ERA sits at 4.13 and whose WHIP has climbed to 1.42, and it has been the shape of his last month: five walks in five innings against Pittsburgh on August 1, three more in four and a third against the White Sox on August 13.

Kyle Leahy has been the cleaner arm, 9-4 with a 3.38 ERA and, more to the point, one walk across his last three starts combined. Sixteen innings, four earned runs, one free pass against Toronto, Colorado and Philadelphia. He has 105 strikeouts against 35 walks in 117.1 innings.

Cincinnati has scored 509 runs, sixth fewest in the majors, on a .227 team average that is the lowest of any club on this board. St. Louis is a slight -112 road favorite and the total sits at 9, the highest number outside Denver and the four games at 9 flat.

Nick Martinez does not walk people. Twenty free passes in 138 innings is a 1.30 per nine rate that nobody else on this board approaches, and it has carried him to 12-3 with a 2.74 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. He went the distance at Oakland on August 11 on 101 pitches and gave up nothing in five and two thirds at Colorado on August 5.

Toronto arrives with the lowest team OPS in Major League Baseball at .678 and 492 runs scored, and on the road that slips to .669 with 240 runs in 60 games. Jose Soriano has been genuinely good, a 3.16 ERA and a .217 opponent average, but he has also walked 62 in 133.2 innings, which is the exact opposite profile to the man opposite him.

Tampa Bay is 75-49 and leads the American League East by six, with 42-21 at home and a major-league-best 49 saves. The total is 7.5, one of four on the board at that number, and the Rays are only a -128 favorite because Toronto has won seven of ten.

Zack Wheeler is the best arm on this board and it is not particularly close: 10-4, a 2.89 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, 137 strikeouts against 29 walks in 115.1 innings, and a .205 opponent average. The one caveat is recent form. He has allowed four earned runs in each of his last two starts, including a 116-pitch night against Toronto on August 7.

Miami is listing Cade Gibson, who has made zero starts in 2026 and threw 23 pitches out of the bullpen against these same Phillies on Monday night. His season line is a 5.61 ERA with 16 walks in 33.2 innings across relief work. The Marlins bullpen has been carrying an outsized load and it shows in the road splits: a 4.51 road staff ERA against 3.39 at home.

Philadelphia has won four straight and scores 4.86 runs a game at Citizens Bank Park on a .761 home OPS, against a .665 mark on the road. Kyle Schwarber has 37 home runs and Bryce Harper has 25. DraftKings makes the Phillies a -210 favorite, the second-largest price on the board, with a total of 8.5.

Merrill Kelly has surrendered 25 home runs in 125 innings, a 1.80 per nine rate, and he is walking 53 hitters against 82 strikeouts behind a 5.11 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. His last time out Colorado put six earned runs and two homers on him in five innings at Chase Field.

Ranger Suarez has allowed six home runs all season. Six, in 108 innings, with a 3.25 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP and 110 strikeouts against 31 walks. The Boston staff behind him has given up 119 home runs, the fewest in Major League Baseball, and 469 runs, the second fewest.

The complication is that Boston plays worse at home. The Red Sox are 30-31 at Fenway Park against 37-27 on the road, and they have lost seven of their last ten. Arizona travels badly in its own right, a .684 road OPS against .742 at home, which is how a game between a 67-58 club and a 66-60 club lands on a total of 7.5.

Zac Thornton has made eight starts and allowed three earned runs or fewer in six of them. Seven scoreless against Boston on July 12, six scoreless at Milwaukee on July 21, five scoreless at Pittsburgh on August 7. His season line reads 2.78 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 45.1 innings, 29 strikeouts, 13 walks.

Robbie Ray brings the bigger name and the wilder profile: 10-7 with a 3.28 ERA and a .229 opponent average, but 65 walks in 131.2 innings. He walked five in five innings against Houston on August 7 and three more in four innings against Milwaukee on August 12.

New York has won four in a row and gone 7-3 in its last ten while sitting 17.5 games out at 57-69. San Diego has lost one and is 8 back in the West at 67-59. Neither offense scares anyone, a .703 OPS for the Padres and .696 for the Mets, and the market has this at a pick with a total of 8.5.

Tyler Mahle has quietly put together his two best starts of the season back to back: six shutout innings with nine strikeouts at Yankee Stadium on August 7, then six innings of one-run ball with seven strikeouts against the Mets on August 12. That is thirteen innings, one earned run and sixteen strikeouts against a pair of playoff-caliber lineups.

Zebby Matthews has gone the other way. He carries a 5.34 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP with 18 home runs allowed in 91 innings, and each of his last three outings ended after five with three or four earned runs on the board. Minnesota's staff has allowed 628 runs, the second most in the American League.

Atlanta is 74-51 and leads the National League East by six and a half, though the Braves are 4-6 in their last ten and 32-28 on the road against 42-23 at home. DraftKings has them at -124 with the total at 9.

Jack Perkins has a 7.27 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP, with 16 home runs allowed in 81.2 innings. His last three starts: five and a third for six earned runs and three homers against Detroit on August 1, three innings for five earned at Boston on August 7, and twelve hits and six earned in five innings against Tampa Bay on August 12. The staff behind him has allowed 723 runs, the most in the sport.

Kansas City had not named a starter at publication, which is the other half of why this game is priced the way it is. The Royals are 52-74 but 30-30 at Kauffman Stadium, where they score 4.77 runs a game on a .754 OPS against 3.58 and .661 on the road. Bobby Witt Jr. is hitting .286 with an .820 OPS and Jac Caglianone has 22 home runs.

The Athletics offense on the road is the worst split on this board: a .647 OPS and 230 runs in 62 games. Kauffman has still averaged 9.65 total runs a night across 60 home dates, which is how a game between a 49-76 club and a 52-74 club draws a total of 9.

The Crosstown series continues and the American League side leads its division at 65-59 while still sitting at +158. The road numbers explain it. Chicago's White Sox pitch to a 4.88 ERA away from home with 315 runs allowed in 63 games, against 3.38 at their own park, and they had not named a starter at publication.

Kevin Gausman is 6-11 with a 4.53 ERA and 138 strikeouts in 139 innings, and his last two starts have gone in opposite directions: seven innings of two-run ball at Kansas City on August 7, then seven hits and six earned in four and two thirds at Washington on August 13.

The Cubs score 5.06 runs a game at Wrigley Field with a .778 home OPS, and Pete Crow-Armstrong is hitting .281 with 30 home runs, 78 RBI and a .929 OPS. They have also allowed 99 home runs at home in 63 dates, which is part of why a -170 favorite still comes with a total of 9.

Jackson Kent has made exactly one major league start. Four innings against the Cubs on August 12, three hits, three earned runs, five walks, six strikeouts, 78 pitches. That is the entire sample, and Washington is asking him to carry a road game in Texas.

Cal Quantrill has been steady since returning to the rotation, a 3.44 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 70.2 innings with 49 strikeouts. His last three turns produced one earned run in six innings against San Francisco on August 3 and one in five at the Angels on August 12.

Washington leads this board in runs scored with 670 and home runs with 180, and the Nationals also carry a 4.72 staff ERA with 652 runs allowed. Texas scores the second fewest runs in the American League at 507. The total of 7.5 says the market trusts the Rangers pitching more than the Nationals bats.

George Klassen has made four starts this season and two of them came in April. He walked five in each of those April outings, disappeared until August, and then went four innings with four walks at Miami on August 7 and six innings of two-run ball with five strikeouts against Texas on August 12. His WHIP still reads 2.11.

Cristian Javier is on a similar path back. A 6.68 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP across 32.1 innings, with a five-inning, zero-walk, seven-strikeout relief outing at the Angels on July 27 and a six-inning, three-run start against Toronto on August 3 as the encouraging entries.

Houston is 63-62 and clings to a two-game lead in the American League West despite allowing 606 runs, and the Astros have lost two straight. The Angels are 49-76 and 20-40 on the road, tied for the lowest road winning percentage in baseball. DraftKings has Houston at -159 with a total of 9.

This is the Featured Game of the Day and the only total on the board above 9. Colorado home games have produced 686 runs across 60 dates, 11.43 a night, and the number opened at 11.5.

Eric Lauer has allowed 22 home runs in 98.1 innings, 2.01 per nine, which is the highest rate of any starter working tonight. He has also been excellent in stretches, six innings of one-hit shutout ball against Seattle on July 29 and six and a third for one earned run against Kansas City on August 12. Ryan Feltner answers at 5.59 with 18 home runs allowed in 87 innings.

Los Angeles is 75-51 with the best road record in baseball at 38-25, and the Dodgers hit far better away from home, a .792 road OPS against .734 at Dodger Stadium. Colorado is 50-75 and 27-33 at home, but the Rockies still put up 311 runs and a .780 OPS in this building. The full breakdown is on the Featured Game page.