Soccer Wednesday: Four Champions League Second Legs And Not One Of Them Is Decided

Champions League PlayoffSecond LegLevel At 1-1

The tie of the day. Fenerbahce and Lyon drew 1-1 in Istanbul on August 18 and the whole thing now comes down to ninety minutes in France, with a Champions League league phase place on the other side of it.

The market cannot separate them either. Lyon are -105 at home with the draw at +250 and the total set at 2.5, which is a book saying home advantage is worth almost exactly nothing here.

Form says the same thing from a different angle. Lyon come in on WDWLL across their last five and Fenerbahce on WDLWW. Two sides in identical shape, level on aggregate, playing for the same prize.

Champions League PlayoffSecond LegGoalless First Leg

Nothing at all happened in Sofia. Levski and AEK played out a 0-0 on August 18, which means the second leg in Athens is effectively a one off match with extra time waiting behind it.

AEK are -215 at the OPAP Arena with the draw at +320 and the total at 2.5. That price is the clearest expression of home advantage on this board, and it is being asked to do a lot of work after a first leg in which neither side scored.

Levski arrive on DWWDW and AEK on WDDDW. Between them that is one defeat in ten, which is part of why the first leg looked the way it did.

Champions League PlayoffSecond Leg2-2 In Zagreb

The loudest first leg of the four. Dinamo Zagreb and Viking traded goals to a 2-2 in Croatia on August 18, and the Norwegian side go home level with two away goals already banked in a competition that no longer counts them for anything.

Viking are +135 at home, which is the only home underdog price among the four second legs. The draw is +260 and the total is 2.5, a number that looks low given what happened in the first leg.

Dinamo are the steadier side by form at DWWWD against Viking on DLWWD, and they are the club with the European pedigree. The tie is still level and it is being played in Stavanger.

Champions League PlayoffSecond LegLevel At 1-1

Slovan Bratislava and NK Celje drew 1-1 in Slovakia on August 19, so the smallest tie of the four by profile is also one of the four that is completely undecided.

Celje are +165 at home with the draw at +225, the shortest draw price anywhere on this board, and the total is 2.5. A book pricing the draw that close is telling you it expects another tight one.

Slovan come in on DWWDW and Celje on DWLDD, and Slovan have the deeper recent European history. Home ground in Celje is the balancing factor and the market has weighed it at roughly a goal.

LaLigaBernabeuMatchweek Two

Real Madrid host Real Sociedad at the Bernabeu at -525, the shortest price on the entire board across every sport today. The draw is +650 and the total is 3.5.

Madrid have won four of their last five and opened the LaLiga season with a win. Sociedad have not won any of their last five, going LDLDD, and start the campaign without a victory.

The 3.5 is the number worth looking at rather than the moneyline. A side priced at -525 is expected to score at least twice, and the question the total asks is whether Sociedad in this form get on the board at all.

Carabao CupLondonRotation Night

Spurs are -750 at home, the shortest cup price of the four, with the draw at +700 and the total at 3.5.

The form lines do not agree with the gap. Charlton arrive on WWWLW, four wins in five, and Tottenham on LWLDW. That is a visiting side in better shape than the home favourite by any recent measure.

What the price is really about is squad depth on a cup night. The team Spurs put out matters more than anything in the form guide, and it will not be known until the sheet lands about an hour before kickoff.

Carabao CupSt James' ParkCup Holders Pedigree

Newcastle are -350 at St James' Park with the draw at +475 and the total at 3.5.

West Brom are the better recent side on paper, coming in on WWWLD against a Newcastle run of DLWDW. Three wins in five for a visiting Championship club is not the profile of a side that turns up to make up numbers.

The 3.5 is the interesting half of this one. It prices Newcastle to win comfortably rather than narrowly, and cup ties between a Premier League home side and a Championship visitor have a long history of not cooperating with that.

Carabao CupDeepdaleLancashire Tie

Everton are -330 at Deepdale, and this is the only cup tie of the four with a total under 3, set at 2.5, with the draw at +425.

Neither side is in form. Everton come in on WLLDD and Preston on LLWLW, which is two clubs alternating results rather than building anything.

The low total is the honest read on that. Two out of sorts sides in a cup tie at a Championship ground is the classic profile for a night that ends 1-0 either way.

Carabao CupValley ParadeClosest Cup Price

The closest cup tie on the board. Burnley are +105 at Valley Parade with the draw at +240 and the total at 2.5, which makes Bradford marginal home favourites against a club from a division above.

Bradford have won three of their last five, going WWWLL, and Burnley are on LDWDL. The price is following the form rather than the league table, which does not happen often in this round.

A 2.5 with an away side barely on the plus side of even money is the market saying it expects a genuine cup tie rather than a formality.