Chase Burns, A Boston Streak And A Debut In The Desert: Fifteen Games On Tuesday

Tonight's Featured Game is the one with a streak attached. Boston has won fourteen consecutive games, a run that began with a 5-2 win in Anaheim on July 3 and has since swept the Angels, the White Sox, the Mets and Tampa Bay before Monday's 6-5 win over these Orioles. The Red Sox are 51-48 and 10-0 in their last ten.

Ranger Suarez starts for Boston with a 3.15 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP and only five home runs allowed in 91.1 innings, distributing six pitches across a sixteen-mile-per-hour velocity band. Baltimore counters with Kyle Bradish, 6-9 with a 3.61 ERA and a 33.8 percent sinker at 94.7 mph, whose one flaw is 50 walks in 107.1 innings. Free passes at Fenway Park behave differently than free passes anywhere else.

The wrinkle nobody mentions when discussing the streak: Boston is 22-27 at home and 29-21 on the road, and the lineup hits just .239 with a .685 OPS against right-handed pitching. Baltimore at 49-52 is 7-3 in its last ten. The full breakdown, with arsenals, keys and market context, is on the Featured Game page.

These teams scored seventeen runs between them on Monday, Philadelphia winning 10-7, and the market responded by setting tonight's total at nine. Blame the pitching matchup. Zack Wheeler is 10-1 with a 2.13 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP and a .185 opponent average, 108 strikeouts against 22 walks in 93 innings, and at 36 years old he is having the best season of a long career.

What makes Wheeler unhittable right now is the sheer inventory. He throws six pitches with meaningful usage: a four-seamer 35.9 percent at 95.3 mph, a sinker at 15.6 percent, a splitter at 15.1 percent, a sweeper at 14.4 percent, a cutter at 11.0 percent and a curveball at 8.1 percent. Nothing repeats, and the velocity range runs from 79.9 to 95.3.

Los Angeles at 63-38 sends Justin Wrobleski, whose 2.69 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over 100.1 innings have gone largely unremarked in a rotation full of names. The 56-45 Phillies hit .237 as a team and drop to .228 with a .685 OPS against left-handed pitching, though they are a different club at home, where they hit .254 with a .770 OPS. The Dodgers, meanwhile, hit .274 with an .807 OPS on the road. Two excellent starters against two lineups with real road-home identities.

Cleveland put thirteen runs on Minnesota on Monday, which for a team averaging 4.01 runs per game counts as an entire week's work. The Guardians are 53-48, one game behind the White Sox in the American League Central, and their offense remains the second-quietest in baseball at a .689 team OPS.

Parker Messick is why they are still in it. The left-hander has thrown 112 innings with a 2.73 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP and a .209 opponent average, working a genuine six-pitch mix headlined by a 34.3 percent four-seamer and a 23.7 percent changeup at 85.6 mph. That changeup usage is aimed squarely at right-handed bats, and Minnesota against left-handed pitching hits .228 with a .680 OPS.

The Twins at 49-52 have lost three straight and carry a 4.75 team ERA with 516 runs allowed, the worst run prevention of any American League club in the race. They counter with 23-year-old lefty Kendry Rojas, making his second big-league start, who has walked 16 hitters in 19.1 innings. The strikeout stuff is real at better than ten per nine. The command is not there yet.

Pittsburgh has the best offense on tonight's board that nobody talks about. The Pirates have scored 538 runs in 101 games, hitting .263 with a .768 OPS, and against right-handed pitching they climb to .266 with a .786 OPS. They are 52-49 and fourth in the National League Central only because the division has three teams above 51 wins.

Bubba Chandler takes the ball for them, and he is the most interesting pitcher on the schedule. The 23-year-old right-hander averages 98.5 mph on a four-seamer he throws 47.9 percent of the time, backed by a 16.9 percent changeup at 91.8. He has also walked 55 hitters in 94.1 innings, and his 4.77 ERA is the direct consequence. Elite velocity, unfinished command.

New York at 56-44 answers with Will Warren, 7-4 with a 4.03 ERA over 98.1 innings, a sinker-and-four-seam right-hander who has been dependable rather than dominant. The larger point is what sits behind him: a 3.42 team ERA, the lowest in baseball, and a lineup with 146 team homers. One concern for the Yankees is workload, with the bullpen having thrown 20 innings across the July 18 to July 20 stretch, Tim Hill and Angel Chivilli each appearing three times.

Toronto has scored 398 runs in 100 games, fewer than any team in the major leagues. That is the starting point for every conversation about a Blue Jays game in July, and it explains a 7.5 total in a ballpark with a roof and short porches.

Drew Rasmussen arrives with a 0.95 WHIP and 17 walks in 99.1 innings, the second-stingiest WHIP on the board behind Wheeler. His pitch selection is genuinely odd for a starter: the cutter is his most-used offering at 31.3 percent at 90.1 mph, ahead of a 26.8 percent four-seamer that averages 96.0 and a 21.9 percent sinker at 95.5. Hard, moving fastballs against a lineup slugging .380.

Kevin Gausman answers with 116 strikeouts in 112.1 innings on a splitter he throws 38.6 percent of the time at 84.0 mph, paired with a 51.3 percent four-seamer at 93.9. The 4.33 ERA and 15 home runs allowed are the caveat. Tampa Bay leads the American League East at 57-42 despite hitting only .248 with a .693 OPS on the road, and the Rays hung seven on this Toronto staff Monday night.

Milwaukee is 63-37, tied with the Dodgers for the best record in baseball, winners of four straight, and 33-18 at home. The Brewers do it with a 3.44 team ERA, second only to the Yankees, and a lineup that hits .253 with a .337 on-base percentage rather than a .399 slugging percentage. Patience and pitching.

New York at 42-59 is seventeen games out in the National League East and 21-31 on the road. The Mets hit .233 with a .683 OPS against right-handed pitching and have scored 412 runs, and they lost 8-3 in this building on Monday.

The reason this is a -132 game rather than a -190 game is Brandon Sproat. Milwaukee's starter has a 5.16 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP across 82 innings with 15 home runs allowed, the most of any starter working tonight. His usage is unusually flat: sinker 24.6 percent, cutter 24.1 percent, four-seamer 23.3 percent, with no single put-away pitch. New York counters with 24-year-old lefty Zac Thornton, who has a 2.60 ERA in 17.1 innings across three starts.

Arizona's listed starter has never thrown a pitch in the major leagues. Kohl Drake is a 26-year-old left-hander, six foot five, and MLB's official records list no debut date and no major league statistics for him. Whatever happens at Chase Field tonight, it starts with a blank page.

The Athletics have their own problems, and they are geographic. Oakland hits .268 with an .808 OPS at home and .227 with a .651 OPS on the road, a 157-point collapse the moment they leave. They are 43-57, they have lost eight of ten, and their 5.29 team ERA and 559 runs allowed are the worst marks in the American League.

Jack Perkins starts for them with a 6.87 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP in 57.2 innings, ten home runs allowed, working a 36.7 percent four-seamer and a 30.3 percent sweeper at 83.6 mph. Arizona at 51-49 does not hit much either, a .667 OPS against right-handed pitching, but the Diamondbacks have a rested-enough bullpen after 15.3 innings of relief work over three days and a home ballpark that rewards fly balls.

Atlanta owns the best record in the National League East at 58-41 and has won two straight, which makes the shape of this pitching matchup a little surprising. Reynaldo Lopez takes the ball with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP across 61.2 innings, a strong line built on a limited workload of nine starts.

San Diego is the quietest offense in the National League. The Padres hit .228 with a .683 OPS and have scored 407 runs in 100 games, and at 49-51 they sit thirteen and a half games out in the West. They lost 3-2 in Atlanta on Monday.

Walker Buehler starts for the Padres carrying a 5.36 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP and a .266 opponent average over 89 innings, numbers that have not matched the name for two seasons now. Atlanta hits .250 with a .734 OPS and has 132 team homers, and Truist Park has been kind to that profile. The Braves' 3.60 staff ERA is seventh in baseball.

Detroit won 8-6 at Wrigley on Monday and now sends its best starter back out. Framber Valdez is 5-6 with a 4.10 ERA over 107.2 innings, more innings than any other Tigers pitcher, and the left-hander remains the ground-ball anchor of a staff whose 3.59 team ERA ranks sixth in baseball.

Chicago at 56-44 has the more productive lineup by a wide margin, .245 with a .750 OPS and 508 runs in 100 games, and a .337 team on-base percentage that grinds down starters. The Cubs trail Milwaukee by seven in the Central and cannot afford to drop a home series to a fourth-place club.

The concern is on the mound. David Peterson has a 6.09 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP across 68 innings, with 30 walks and a .292 opponent average, the worst combination of any starter working tonight outside of Colorado. Detroit hits only .235 as a team but has 122 team homers, and Wrigley in July is not the place to be issuing free passes.

Chicago hammered Texas 10-3 on Monday and leads the American League Central at 53-46, a sentence that would have read as a typo two seasons ago. The White Sox hit .241 with a .732 OPS and 131 team homers, and their 4.03 staff ERA has held up better than anyone projected.

Noah Schultz starts for them, an 11-start left-hander with a 5.60 ERA but a .224 opponent average, a split that usually points at walks, and his 29 free passes in 53 innings confirm it. He misses bats. He has not yet learned to do it economically.

Texas at 50-50 sits half a game behind Seattle in the West and hands the ball to Kumar Rocker, 2-8 with a 4.40 ERA over 90 innings. That record badly understates the pitching; the Rangers have scored two runs or fewer in a substantial share of his starts, and Texas has scored just 415 runs on the season. Globe Life Field with the roof closed keeps this one honest.

Miami has lost seven in a row. The Marlins were 52-42 and holding a wild-card position when the slide started; they are 52-49 now, and Monday's 8-5 loss in Houston was the seventh. The bats have not gone away, a .252 average and a .736 OPS, but a 4.05 staff ERA has stopped covering for them.

Tyler Phillips gets the assignment with a 3.48 ERA over 75 innings, the best ERA on the Miami staff among starters with more than eight starts, though his 35 walks and 1.39 WHIP suggest the run prevention has involved some traffic management.

Houston at 48-54 is a fading team with a live lineup, 137 team homers and a .726 OPS against a 4.75 staff ERA and 513 runs allowed. Tatsuya Imai starts with a 6.06 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in 52 innings, and the 33 walks are the story: his .232 opponent average says hitters are not squaring him up, but free baserunners in a park this friendly to right-handed power get punished.

The highest-scoring offense on the entire board is in Denver tonight, and it is the visiting team. Washington has scored 552 runs in 101 games, 5.47 per night, hitting .252 with a .767 OPS and 147 team homers, and the Nationals are 51-50 despite a 4.80 staff ERA because they simply outslug people.

They also just won 7-3 at Coors Field on Monday. Carson Palmquist starts for them with a tiny sample, three starts and 9.2 innings, a 6.52 ERA and a .308 opponent average, and the Rockies' home lineup will find out quickly whether the left-hander belongs.

Colorado at 40-62 has the worst pitching staff in baseball at a 5.47 ERA with 581 runs allowed, and tonight it starts Michael Lorenzen, whose 6.22 ERA, 1.77 WHIP and .324 opponent average across 97 innings are the roughest full-season line of any starter on the schedule. The Rockies hit .255 with a .745 OPS, which at altitude is closer to league average than it looks. Runs are the expectation.

Two seasons ending early meet in Kansas City. San Francisco is 42-58 and twenty and a half games out in the National League West after losing three straight, including a 4-3 loss here Monday. The Royals are 41-60 and thirteen back in the Central.

Tyler Mahle starts for the Giants at 2-8 with a 5.31 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP over 78 innings, twelve home runs allowed, and the record is only partly the offense's fault. San Francisco actually hits reasonably well, .254 with a .726 OPS, but a 4.40 staff ERA and 473 runs allowed have buried the season.

Kansas City counters with Luinder Avila, whose 5.08 ERA and 1.62 WHIP across 56.2 innings include 34 walks, and the Royals' 4.97 staff ERA and 528 runs allowed are the second-worst combination in the American League. Kauffman Stadium's dimensions keep some of the damage in the park, but neither of these clubs has shown the ability to hold a lead in July.

St. Louis has lost three in a row, including a 3-2 loss in Anaheim on Monday, and at 51-48 the Cardinals are eleven and a half games behind Milwaukee and running out of runway. Their .705 team OPS and 446 runs are middling; a 4.15 staff ERA has kept them respectable.

Matthew Liberatore starts with a 5.00 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP over 93.2 innings, and the number that matters is 17 home runs allowed, the most of any starter on tonight's fifteen-game board. Angel Stadium has been a fair park this season, but that is a lot of contact leaving the yard for a left-hander facing a lineup with 111 homers.

Los Angeles at 40-61 has the worst record in the American League and the best pitcher in this game. Walbert Urena has a 2.88 ERA and a .204 opponent average across 81.1 innings, a genuinely excellent line undermined by 46 walks and a 5-7 record on a team that has scored 437 runs while striking out 958 times, the most in baseball. The Angels have won two straight.