Cole, deGrom And Bieber Headline A Nine Game Thursday Board

Baseball opens at lunchtime in Cincinnati with two clubs on the outside of the National League race. St. Louis is 65-63 and 13.5 games back in the Central, though the Cardinals travel well at 33-29. Cincinnati is 61-66 and 17 back, and the Reds have gone 5-5 in their last ten after winning on Wednesday.

Michael McGreevy takes the ball for St. Louis at 5-9 with a 3.54 ERA over 137.1 innings and 25 starts. The strikeout rate is modest at 6.23 per nine, but the control is real: 36 walks all season, 2.36 per nine, and a 1.21 WHIP with a .251 opponent average. He is the kind of starter who lives on soft contact, which is a specific thing to bring into this ballpark.

Brady Singer answers at 5-11 with a 4.72 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP, and the number that jumps is 25 home runs allowed in 131.2 innings. That is the highest total in this matchup by a distance, and the Cardinals have hit 133 as a club. Cincinnati also strikes out more than any lineup in Major League Baseball at 1,220, which is the other side of a Reds offense that has scored only 519 runs despite 165 home runs.

Gavin Williams has quietly put together the best strikeout season in this game and one of the best in the American League. He is 11-7 with a 3.72 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP and a .211 opponent average, and he has 201 strikeouts in 154.2 innings. That is 11.70 per nine against 48 walks. Cleveland's staff as a whole has 1,194 punchouts, fourth most in baseball.

The Giants are the wrong lineup to bring into that. San Francisco has drawn 333 walks, fewer than any team in Major League Baseball, and hits .248 with a .305 on base mark. On the road the club is 23-41. At 52-74 overall the Giants are 24 games out in the National League West and have lost seven of their last ten.

Landen Roupp starts for San Francisco at 7-12 with a 4.34 ERA. His raw stuff is fine, with 130 strikeouts in 134.2 innings, but the 64 walks work out to 4.28 per nine and that is the gap between him and the man he is facing. Cleveland has been struggling too, at 3-7 in its last ten and 61-66 on the year, having scored only 506 runs.

Tampa Bay is 76-50 and leads the American League East, and the number underneath that is the home record: 43-22 at Tropicana Field. The Rays hit .261 as a club, the best average in this matchup, and their 50 saves are the most in baseball. They won on Wednesday and sit five games clear of the Yankees.

Shane Bieber makes his eleventh start of the season for Toronto. The line reads 4-2 with a 4.53 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP and 44 strikeouts against 24 walks in 55.2 innings, which is 3.88 walks per nine. Command has been the slow part of the rebuild, and Tampa Bay is a lineup that punishes deep counts with the fewest strikeouts of any club in the game at 898.

Ian Seymour has been the surprise of the Rays rotation at 9-3 with a 4.17 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP and 123 strikeouts in 101.1 innings across 11 starts. That is 10.92 per nine. The blemish is 18 home runs allowed, and Toronto has hit only 123 as a team with a .685 OPS that ranks near the bottom of the sport. The Blue Jays are 62-66 and 29-33 away from the Rogers Centre.

Randy Dobnak has made seven starts for Kansas City and owns a 1.61 ERA across 44.2 innings. Look one column over and the story changes. His WHIP is 1.43, he has walked 20 against 29 strikeouts, and hitters are batting .257 off him. An ERA that low behind those peripherals is a run of sequencing luck, not a new ace, and it is the single most interesting number on the afternoon board.

The Athletics arrive at 49-78 and riding a three game losing streak. Their pitching staff has a 5.51 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP and has allowed more runs than any team in Major League Baseball, along with 197 home runs. That is the context for Gage Jump, who is 5-7 with a 4.67 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP and 39 walks in 81 innings.

Kansas City has won four in a row and is 32-30 at Kauffman Stadium against 22-44 on the road, one of the widest home and away splits in the league. The Royals hit .245 with 129 home runs and have stolen 98 bases. At 54-74 the season is gone, but the home version of this club has been a real out all year.

The White Sox are 66-60 and lead the American League Central, and the engine of it is Rate Field. Chicago is 37-24 at home against 29-36 on the road. The club has scored 605 runs with 167 home runs and a .727 OPS, numbers that look nothing like the recent history of this franchise.

Anthony Kay has been a quiet part of that at 9-5 with a 3.91 ERA over 126.2 innings and 24 starts. He has 103 strikeouts against 45 walks and a 1.32 WHIP, and hitters are at .252. He is not overpowering anybody at 7.32 strikeouts per nine, but he has taken the ball every fifth day and kept the club in games.

Atlanta comes in at 74-53 and leads the National League East, though the Braves have lost three straight and are 4-6 in their last ten. Grant Holmes starts at 7-5 with a 3.67 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP, with 98 strikeouts and 52 walks in 122.2 innings. Atlanta has scored 607 runs and allowed 496, a differential that says the Braves are better than the last ten days have looked.

New York has taken the first two of this series at Camden Yards, 3-1 on Tuesday and 5-3 on Wednesday, and the Yankees have won three straight overall. They are 71-55 and five games behind Tampa Bay in the East with a nine game cushion in the wild card race. Baltimore is 61-66, 15.5 back, and has lost three in a row.

Gerrit Cole is 6-6 with a 3.22 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP and a .227 opponent average over 86.2 innings and 15 starts, with 92 strikeouts against 19 walks. His last five turns have produced 31.2 innings, 37 strikeouts, seven walks and seven earned runs. The caveat is workload: 86.2 innings across 15 starts, and he has not gone past seven innings once this year.

Kyle Bradish is 7-11 with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP over 133 innings, and his strikeout rate has fallen off a cliff, with 14 punchouts across his last four starts covering 19.2 innings. He has walked 58 on the season. Baltimore does draw walks, 488 of them, the third most in baseball, which is the one lever the Orioles have against a pitcher whose edge is command. BetLegend has a tracked play on this game, which lives on the pick page, not here.

Washington leads Major League Baseball in runs scored with 676, in home runs with 182 and in stolen bases with 135, and ranks second in team OPS at .763. The Nationals are 61-67. The reason is a pitching staff with a 4.69 ERA that ranks 27th and has allowed the third most home runs in the sport.

Jacob deGrom starts for Texas at 8-8 with a 3.95 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP and 147 strikeouts against 31 walks in 120.2 innings. The stuff is intact at 10.96 strikeouts per nine. The length is not: he has not completed six innings in any of his last six starts, and across 23 outings he averages 5.24 innings.

Andrew Alvarez counters at 2-4 with a 3.72 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 75 innings, and his separator is home run suppression, with three allowed all season. Texas is 62-65 and half a game out of a wild card spot, 33-28 at home with a 3.78 home staff ERA. DraftKings has the Rangers at -172 with a total of 7.5. Full analysis of this one is on the featured game page.

The widest pitching gap on the board closes the night. Peter Lambert has been excellent for Houston at 8-6 with a 3.11 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and a .208 opponent average across 118.2 innings and 21 starts, with 117 strikeouts. Grayson Rodriguez has a 7.17 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP over 59 innings for the Angels, with 28 walks and 10 home runs allowed.

Houston is 64-63 and leads the American League West by two games over Texas, which is the shape of that division this year. The Astros have scored 580 runs with 170 home runs, but the staff carries a 4.55 ERA with 523 walks, the second most in baseball. Lambert is the reason that number is not worse.

Los Angeles is 50-77 and 21-41 on the road, with 1,197 strikeouts as a lineup and a .682 OPS. DraftKings has Houston at -176 with the total at 8.5, the highest number on the board. That total is a statement about the two pitching staffs rather than the two lineups.