Benfica, Ajax And Brighton All Open A Playoff Round Tie On Thursday

The European day starts in a Swedish village ground. Mjallby AIF are here because the Champions League path ran out: they knocked out Lincoln Red Imps on a 3-0 aggregate after a 0-0 draw in Gibraltar, then ran into Slovan Bratislava in the third qualifying round and lost both legs, 2-1 and 2-0, for a 4-1 aggregate. Losing there drops a club into this round.

Domestically the Swedes have been up and down. They were beaten 1-0 by IF Elfsborg on August 8, then won a 4-3 shootout with IK Sirius on August 15. That is five goals conceded in two Allsvenskan matches, which is the specific worry against a side that arrives with rhythm.

RB Salzburg have that rhythm. They beat Pafos 1-0 at home on August 6, drew 3-3 in Cyprus on August 13 to advance 4-3 on aggregate, and then went to WSG Tirol on August 16 and won 3-0. Add a 1-0 win over TSV Hartberg on August 1 and a 1-1 draw at Wolfsberger on August 9 and the Austrian side has lost none of its last five. DraftKings has Salzburg at -140, Mjallby at +340 and the draw at +300, with the total at 2.5.

Trabzonspor enter their own stadium as a -155 favourite with a preseason that read badly. They were beaten 3-0 at Eintracht Frankfurt on July 26, lost 1-0 to Al Sadd on July 30, beat Udinese 1-0 on August 2 and lost 2-1 at Goztepe on August 8. Their only competitive fixture in that run was a 1-1 draw at Kasimpasa in the Super Lig on August 15.

Ferencvaros arrive having already survived two ties. They won 2-1 at FC Twente on July 23, drew 2-2 in Budapest on July 30 and went through 4-3 on aggregate. In the third round they beat Gornik Zabrze 1-0 at home on August 5 and drew 1-1 in Poland on August 13 for a 2-1 aggregate. Four European matches, none lost.

The Hungarian champions also played the friendly of the summer, losing 2-1 to Real Madrid on August 8. That is a schedule with real minutes in it, against a home side whose competitive sample size is a single league draw. DraftKings prices Ferencvaros at +400 with the draw at +295 and the total at 2.5, which is a low number for a tie where the away goal still shapes the second leg.

Brighton are -210 to win a football match played roughly 200 miles north of the Arctic Circle, on an artificial surface, against a club that has scored 13 goals in its last four matches. That is the shape of this one, and it is the reason a Premier League side is not shorter.

Tromso have been excellent. They lost 3-1 at Hradec Kralove on July 30 and still went through 4-1 on aggregate, then destroyed CFR Cluj 5-0 in Romania on August 6 and finished the job 2-1 at home on August 13 for a 7-1 aggregate. In between they won 6-2 at Aalesund in the Eliteserien. The one recent blemish is a 3-2 defeat at Molde on August 16.

Brighton's summer has been friendlies since the Premier League ended. They lost 1-0 at Leeds on May 17 and 3-0 at home to Manchester United on May 24, then beat Strasbourg 4-3 on August 1, Roma 3-0 on August 8 and Bologna 1-0 on August 15. Three preseason wins in a row, and no competitive football since May. The total is 2.5 with the draw at +330.

Red Star are another club that fell out of the Champions League. They dismantled Larne 4-0 away and 5-0 at home for a 9-0 aggregate in the second qualifying round, then lost 1-0 in Israel and 2-0 at the Rajko Mitic to Hapoel Beer Sheva, a 3-0 aggregate exit. Two home defeats in that building is not the form line a -165 favourite usually carries.

Viktoria Plzen present the strangest profile on the board. The five most recent results in their file run from December to February: a 0-0 draw at Panathinaikos, a 1-1 draw with Porto, a 1-0 win at Basel in the Europa League league phase, and then elimination by Panathinaikos in the knockout round playoffs after a 2-2 draw in Athens and a 1-1 home draw.

That is a Czech side whose European memory is of pushing very good clubs close, walking into a stadium where the home crowd is the loudest asset. DraftKings has Red Star at -165, Plzen at +400 and the draw at +320, with a total of 3.5, the highest number of the European afternoon.

Two clubs that arrive at the same round having played completely different football. Twente beat Dunajska Streda 6-0 at home on August 6, then drew 3-3 in Slovakia on August 13 to go through 9-3 on aggregate. Nine goals scored, three conceded, in one tie.

Qarabag got here by not conceding at all. They drew 0-0 with CSKA Sofia at home on July 23 and 0-0 again in Bulgaria on July 30, then lost 1-0 at Dynamo Kyiv on August 6 and won 2-0 at home on August 13 to advance. Four European matches, two goals conceded, and a 3-0 win at Vestri before any of it.

The Dutch side is in good league form as well, beating PEC Zwolle 3-1 on August 16 after a 1-0 defeat at Heerenveen on August 9. DraftKings has Twente at -260 with Qarabag at +550, the draw at +390 and the total at 3.5, which is the market backing the team that has been scoring over the team that has been defending.

Ajax as a -110 favourite away from home tells you where this version of the club sits. They beat Shelbourne 3-1 in Amsterdam on August 6, then drew 2-2 in Dublin on August 13 and needed the first leg to go through 5-3 on aggregate. In the Eredivisie they beat PEC Zwolle 2-0 on August 9 and drew 2-2 with Heerenveen on August 16.

That is two 2-2 draws in the last four matches, and the pattern is the same both times: a lead, a concession, a scramble. Against a well organised home side that pattern is how a first leg gets away from a bigger club.

FC Sion have earned the right to test it. They drew 1-1 at BATE Borisov and won 4-0 at home for a 5-1 aggregate in the second qualifying round, then drew 2-2 away at FC Noah and won 2-1 in Sion to advance 4-3. Four European ties without a defeat in Switzerland. DraftKings has Sion at +230 with the draw at +300 and the total at 2.5.

The one genuine decider of the day. Liga de Quito and Mirassol drew 1-1 in Brazil on August 13, so the round of sixteen tie is level and it is settled at altitude in Quito. Everything from here is played on the home side's terms.

Liga de Quito have been steady since. They won 1-0 at Barcelona SC on July 27, beat Delfin 2-1 on August 4, lost 2-0 at home to Independiente del Valle on August 8, drew the first leg, and then won 1-0 at Aucas on August 17. Four wins in six across two competitions.

Mirassol have gone the other way. After the first leg they were beaten 5-1 by Flamengo on August 16 in the Brazilian league, and before the tie they lost 3-1 at Cruzeiro on August 9. Their Copa do Brasil run ended with a 1-1 home draw and a 1-0 defeat at Gremio. DraftKings has the home side at -175, Mirassol at +500 and the draw at +280, with a total of 2.5.