Fifteen Games, A 1.88 In Detroit And A 16-3 In Miami

Detroit is 62-70 and has the second best pitching on this board. The Tigers carry a 3.61 team ERA, have allowed 522 runs and have given up only 135 home runs, the second lowest figure of any club playing today. The offense scores 4.45 a game, which is why the record does not match the run prevention.

Tampa Bay is 78-54 and scores 4.47 a game with a .732 OPS. The Rays staff is at 3.79 with a 1.15 WHIP, the cleanest baserunner rate in this game, but they have allowed 168 home runs, the most of either club here by a wide margin.

Troy Melton is the reason to watch this one. Sixteen starts, 96 innings, a 1.88 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP, with a .203 opponent average, the best line of any starter on today's board. Freddy Peralta answers at 5.14 with a 1.41 WHIP and 22 home runs allowed in 140 innings. Detroit is -117 and the total is 7.5.

Chicago brings the best offense on the entire board. The Cubs score 5.23 runs a game with a .762 OPS and 177 home runs, all three the top marks of any club playing today, and they are 76-57.

Arizona is 70-63 and scores 4.53 with a .715 OPS. The Diamondbacks staff is at 4.21 with a 1.29 WHIP and has allowed 600 runs, so the case for the home side is not the pitching depth. It is the man starting.

Eduardo Rodriguez is 13-4 with a 2.61 ERA across 26 starts and 155 innings, a 1.21 WHIP and a .237 opponent average. Matthew Boyd is 8-2 at 4.15 with 14 home runs allowed in 91 innings. This is the only true pick em on the board at -107 both ways, with the total at 8.5.

These are the two quietest offenses on the board. Cincinnati scores 4.05 a game with a .694 OPS and San Francisco scores 4.02 with a .711, and the Giants have allowed the fewest home runs of any club playing today at 120.

The Reds staff is the problem in this matchup. A 4.52 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP, 639 runs allowed, and the walks that come with it. San Francisco is at 4.30 and 1.35, which is not good either, but Oracle Park has been doing part of that work all season.

Logan Webb has a 1.11 WHIP in 141.2 innings with 112 strikeouts against 35 walks and a .229 opponent average. Nick Lodolo is at a 5.04 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP and a .288 opponent average across 75 innings. San Francisco is -117 and the number is 7.5, the joint lowest total on the board.

Cleveland is 67-66 with a 3.75 staff ERA and scores 4.05 a game, the same tight profile the Guardians have had all year. The Angels are 52-81 with a 4.28 staff ERA and 619 runs allowed, and score 4.10.

Neither lineup is why the total is 8.5. Both offenses sit under .690 OPS, which is the bottom of this board, and the number is being set by two starters who put men on base.

Joey Cantillo has 144 strikeouts in 130.1 innings, the second highest total on this board, but a 1.45 WHIP and 63 walks with it. Grayson Rodriguez carries a 6.41 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP through 14 starts and 66 innings. Cleveland is -138 and the total is 8.5.

Pittsburgh is the better offense on paper at 4.90 runs a game against San Diego's 4.26, and it is the worse team on the board at 65-69 against the Padres at 71-62. The gap is entirely pitching: a 4.23 Pirates staff ERA against 3.97 for San Diego, and 630 runs allowed against 552.

Bubba Chandler is the interesting arm here and the risky one. A 4.38 ERA and a .226 opponent average say the contact against him has been poor, and 66 walks in 125.1 innings says he keeps giving the runs back anyway. That is 4.74 walks per nine, the highest rate of any starter on this board.

Randy Vasquez is at 4.19 with a 1.31 WHIP and has allowed 15 home runs in 118 innings. San Diego is -132 in a park that has suppressed runs all year, and the total is 8.5.

This is the lowest total on the board at 7, and both halves of the matchup earn it. Seattle scores 3.95 runs a game, the lowest figure of any club playing today, and Philadelphia is at 4.53 with a .715 OPS.

Jesus Luzardo has 194 strikeouts, the most of any starter on this board, across 26 starts and 156 innings, with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. He has walked 47 men all season.

Bryan Woo is the cleaner half of the two on baserunners. A 1.08 WHIP in 138.1 innings with 137 strikeouts and only 29 walks, which is 1.89 per nine, the best control rate on this board. Philadelphia is -130 and the number is 7.

Two of the three worst pitching staffs on the board are in this game. Colorado has a 5.55 team ERA and has allowed 767 runs, the most of any club playing today. Washington is at 4.66 with 678 allowed and has given up 183 home runs.

Both lineups can hit. Washington scores 5.19 runs a game with 185 home runs, the most of any club on this board, and Colorado scores 4.72 with a .737 OPS on the road as well as at altitude.

The starters do nothing to argue against that. Tanner Gordon has a 5.75 ERA and a .314 opponent average with 16 home runs allowed in 76.2 innings. Matt Waldron is at a 7.54 ERA with a 1.62 WHIP and a .327 opponent average across 37 innings. The total is 9 and Washington is -127.

New York has the best team ERA on this board at 3.24 with a 1.18 WHIP and 488 runs allowed, and the Yankees have hit 181 home runs, the most of any club playing today. They are 74-57.

Houston is 66-66 and the pitching is the reason. A 4.65 staff ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, 647 runs allowed and 175 home runs allowed, which is the worst pitching profile in this game by a distance.

Peter Lambert has been the better half of Houston's argument all year, a 3.68 ERA and a .218 opponent average in 122.1 innings. Elmer Rodriguez has thrown 17 innings in the majors with a 1.76 WHIP and 11 walks inside them. New York is only -118, which is the surprise of the board, and the total is 9.

Toronto scores 3.94 runs a game, second lowest on this board, and has hit only 124 home runs. The Blue Jays are 64-69 and are still laying -150, the shortest price on the board, which is a statement about who Kansas City is starting rather than about the home lineup.

The Royals are 59-74 with a 4.71 staff ERA and 654 runs allowed, the second worst run prevention of any club playing today. They score 4.25 with a .715 OPS.

Randy Dobnak has a 1.58 ERA across 45.2 innings, which is the lowest of any starter here, and a 1.40 WHIP with 20 walks that says the ERA has had help. Spencer Miles has a 3.02 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 80.1 innings out of only four starts. The total is 8.5.

Milwaukee has the best record in baseball at 81-51 and the second best staff ERA on this board at 3.41, with a 1.17 WHIP and 492 runs allowed. The Brewers have hit only 120 home runs, the fewest of any club playing today, and still score 4.94 a game.

New York is 60-72 and scores 4.16 runs a game, the quietest offense in this game. The Mets staff is at 4.05 with 588 runs allowed, which is respectable, and 31-35 at home says the park has not been the problem either.

Robert Stock is the whole market here. Four starts, 16.2 innings, a 5.40 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP with 11 walks. Dustin May counters at 4.57 across 124 innings. Milwaukee is -152 and the total is 8.5.

This is the best matchup on the board by record, 80-52 against 77-55, and the two staffs are nearly identical: Los Angeles at a 3.67 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP, Atlanta at 3.60 with a 1.25.

The Dodgers have the better lineup at 4.97 runs a game and a .761 OPS against 4.68 and .722, and they are 40-26 on the road. Atlanta is 43-23 at home, one of the best home records in the sport, and won this same matchup 4-3 on Tuesday.

Roki Sasaki has allowed 21 home runs in 116 innings and walks into a lineup that has hit 168 of them. AJ Smith-Shawver has 8.2 innings on his season line with a 6.23 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP. Los Angeles is -129 and the total is 8.5.

Chicago is 69-63 and scores 4.78 runs a game with 176 home runs, the second most of any club playing today. Texas is 66-67 and scores 4.05 with a .713 OPS, and the two staffs are within six hundredths of a run of each other at 4.16 and 4.22.

The reason to watch is the two starters, who have combined for 319 strikeouts, the highest pairing on this board. MacKenzie Gore has 161 in 145.2 innings and Sean Burke has 158 in 146.

Burke is the better line of the two: a 3.27 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP and a .222 opponent average against Gore at 4.26, 1.23 and .229 with 18 home runs allowed. Chicago is -124 and the total is 8.

Two clubs a game apart in the standings, 64-68 and 66-67, with staff ERAs four hundredths apart at 4.17 and 4.21 and identical 1.34 WHIPs. The market has this at -108 and -107, and it is hard to argue with that.

Baltimore hits for more power, 161 home runs against 138, and scores 4.52 against 4.41. St. Louis has allowed the fewer home runs at 131.

Kyle Bradish is 7-12 with a 3.70 ERA, which is the sort of record that tells you nothing about the pitching, and a 1.38 WHIP with 60 walks in 138.2 innings. Michael McGreevy is at 3.54 with a cleaner 1.21 WHIP but has allowed 18 home runs. The total is 8.5.

The total here is 10.5, two full runs clear of anything else on the board, and the two staffs explain it without help. The Athletics carry a 5.47 ERA with a 1.51 WHIP, 201 home runs allowed and 766 runs allowed, every one of those the worst figure of any club playing today. Minnesota is at 4.67 with 664 allowed.

Sacramento is the other half. Athletics home games have averaged 12.03 combined runs across 65 completed dates this season, and more than 10 runs has landed in 36 of them.

J.T. Ginn is the one argument against all of that, a 3.60 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP and a .223 opponent average in 132.1 innings. Connor Prielipp is at 5.57 with a .262 opponent average and 13 home runs allowed in 93.2 innings. Minnesota is -137.