Seven Preseason Games And The Shortest Totals Of The Weekend In Kansas City

Carolina is the one club in Saturday's field carrying a preseason result, arriving at 1-0 while Buffalo and the other twelve teams on the board are still listed at 0-0. Buffalo is favored by 3 at -155, with Carolina back at +130 and the total set at 38.5.

The gap in last season's offensive numbers is the widest of the early window. Buffalo averaged 28.3 points and 393 yards a game with 216 through the air and 159 on the ground, and converted 44.8 percent of third downs, the best rate of any team playing Saturday. Carolina averaged 18.3 points and 310 yards with a 36.1 percent third-down rate.

Defensively the two clubs sat closer together than the scoreboards suggested. Buffalo produced 36 sacks, 13 interceptions, 84 tackles for loss and 13 forced fumbles last season against Carolina's 30 sacks, 15 interceptions and 65 tackles for loss. The turnover margin is where they split, Buffalo at plus one and Carolina at minus two, and preseason football tends to exaggerate exactly that category once the backups take over in the second half.

Cleveland is a 3-point road favorite at -166 despite averaging 16.4 points a game last season, the lowest figure of any club on Saturday's board. Chicago comes back at +140 with the total at 40.5, the second-highest number of the day.

The line is a defensive statement. Cleveland recorded 53 sacks and 117 tackles for loss last season, both the highest totals among the fourteen teams playing Saturday, with 11 interceptions and 15 forced fumbles. The offense never held up its end, averaging 281 yards a game with 97 on the ground and a 33.6 percent third-down rate, and the turnover margin finished at minus seven.

Chicago's profile is the mirror image. The Bears scored 25.9 points a game on 379 yards with 225 passing, converted 42.7 percent on third down, and finished with a plus-22 turnover margin built on 23 interceptions, more than any team in this group. Preseason personnel makes all of it provisional, but a defense that generated 53 sacks against an offense that lived on takeaways is the framework the 40.5 has to fit inside.

MetLife hosts the only number above 40.5 on Saturday, with the total set at 42.5 and Minnesota favored by 1.5 at -135. The Giants sit at +114, the shortest underdog price of the day, which reads as a market that sees very little between these two once the starters leave.

New York scored 22.4 points a game last season on 346 yards with 204 through the air and 129 rushing, and converted 40.2 percent of third downs. Minnesota was quieter at 20.2 points and 297 yards with a 31.8 percent third-down rate, the worst mark of any team playing Saturday, which is the number that most explains a 42.5 sitting on a game between two clubs neither of which reached 23 points a game.

Both defenses were productive and both gave the ball away. Minnesota generated 49 sacks, 107 tackles for loss and 17 forced fumbles, the most forced fumbles in this field, yet finished at minus nine in turnover margin. The Giants recorded 39 sacks and 91 tackles for loss at minus two. Two front sevens that get into the backfield against two offenses that struggled to sustain drives is a recipe for a lot of possessions and not much scoring, whatever the total says.

New Orleans is a 2.5-point home favorite at -130, Jacksonville comes back at +110, and the total matches Arrowhead at 35.5. Two of the three lowest numbers on the board landed in the same 4:00 window.

Jacksonville's last season looks the healthier of the two on both sides. The Jaguars averaged 27.9 points and 351 yards a game, converted 39.2 percent on third down, and produced 22 interceptions and a plus-13 turnover margin, the second-best mark in this field behind Chicago. The pass rush was the soft spot at 32 sacks, the fewest of any team playing Saturday.

New Orleans scored 18.0 points a game last season, the second-lowest figure in this group, on 331 yards with just 94 rushing yards a game. The defense was the more convincing unit with 45 sacks and 90 tackles for loss, though 10 interceptions and a minus-four turnover margin kept it from translating. The Superdome removes weather from the equation entirely, which is one of the few things about a preseason total that can be relied on.

Philadelphia is a 3.5-point road favorite at -180, the largest spread and the shortest price anywhere on Saturday's board, with Baltimore at +150 and the total set at 36.5.

The last-season numbers do not obviously support a road favorite. Baltimore scored 24.9 points a game to Philadelphia's 22.3, out-gained the Eagles 349 yards to 321, and ran for 156 yards a game, the highest rushing figure of any team playing Saturday, while converting 40.9 percent of third downs against Philadelphia's 37.1 percent.

The separation shows up on defense and in the turnover column. Philadelphia produced 42 sacks, 12 interceptions and 71 tackles for loss at a plus-six turnover margin, while Baltimore managed 30 sacks, the fewest in this field, with 11 interceptions and a minus-three margin. A 3.5-point preseason spread usually says more about announced snap plans than about talent, and this is the game on the board where that gap is widest.

Seattle closes the board as a 3-point favorite at -155, with Dallas at +130 and the total at 37.5. It is the only game Saturday featuring two clubs that both averaged more than 27 points a game last season, and the total still sits under 38.

Dallas moved the ball as well as anyone in this field, averaging 27.7 points and 403 yards a game with 266 through the air and a 41.1 percent third-down rate, the second-best conversion mark on the board. The defense never matched it: 6 interceptions, the fewest of any team playing Saturday, and a minus-nine turnover margin that tied Minnesota for the worst here.

Seattle averaged 28.4 points and 362 yards and paired it with the more complete defensive season, 47 sacks, 18 interceptions and 89 tackles for loss. The Seahawks still finished at minus three in turnover margin, which is the kind of detail that gets erased entirely once third-string quarterbacks are playing. NFL Network carries it, and Lumen Field in August is the loudest room any of these backups will see for a while.