A 6.5 In Seattle And An 11 In Sacramento On The Same Board

Detroit has the best pitching staff playing tonight. The Tigers carry a 3.62 team ERA and have allowed 3.95 runs a game, both the best figures on this board, and they are 61-69 anyway because the offense scores 4.52 a game and the differential has been living on the wrong side of one run games.

Tampa Bay is 77-53, the second best record on the schedule, and scores exactly the same 4.52 runs a game as Detroit. The Rays get there differently: a 3.83 staff ERA with a 1.16 WHIP, the cleanest walk profile of the two clubs, and 167 home runs allowed against Detroit's 134.

Drew Rasmussen is the reason this total sits at 7.5 and not higher. He has a 3.01 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP across 134.1 innings, with 138 strikeouts against 25 walks and a .206 opponent average. Framber Valdez answers with a 4.35 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP and 54 walks in 138.2 innings, which is 3.50 per nine. Tampa Bay is -129 and the number is 7.5.

Boston is 71-59 with a 3.51 staff ERA, the second best mark on this board, and the Red Sox have allowed only 126 home runs, the lowest total of any club playing tonight. They score 4.53 runs a game with a .731 OPS.

Miami is 67-64 and closer to Boston than the standings suggest. The Marlins have a 3.90 team ERA, allow 4.21 runs a game and score 4.37, which is the profile of a club that wins low scoring games and loses everything else. They are home underdogs at +108.

Sandy Alcantara has made 27 starts and thrown 176.2 innings, the heaviest workload of any pitcher on this board, with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. Ranger Suarez matches the WHIP exactly at 1.18 with a 3.41 ERA in 113.1 innings and has allowed only seven home runs all season. The total is 7.

Washington is -197, the shortest price anywhere on tonight's board, and the number is doing honest work. The Nationals score 5.17 runs a game with a .754 OPS and 183 home runs, all three the best offensive figures on this schedule.

Colorado is 50-80 with a 5.54 team ERA and 5.79 runs allowed a game, the worst pitching on the board by a distance. The bat is not the problem: the Rockies score 4.75 a game, more than seven of the clubs playing tonight.

Cade Cavalli has quietly built the season Washington needed, a 3.22 ERA with 162 strikeouts in 142.2 innings across 27 starts. Ryan Feltner is the opposite: a 5.97 ERA, a 1.53 WHIP, 19 home runs in 92 innings and 3.82 walks per nine. The total is 8 and the Nationals staff has still allowed 180 home runs, which is the reason the number is not lower.

Chicago is 68-62 and three games clear of Texas despite scoring 4.75 runs a game against a Rangers offense at 3.98, which is the second lowest figure on this board. The White Sox have hit 174 home runs to Texas at 143.

The Rangers are the better pitching side. Texas carries a 4.19 team ERA against Chicago's 4.09, close enough to call level, but the White Sox have allowed 4.42 runs a game to Texas at 4.33 and the two bullpens have been the difference all summer.

Jose Urquidy is the wildcard. He has thrown 16 innings all season and made zero starts, with a 5.06 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP and opponents hitting .319 against him. Kumar Rocker brings 121 innings and a 4.46 ERA with 48 walks. Chicago is -131 with the total at 8, which is a full number to hang on a pitcher who has not been stretched out.

Parker Messick has the second best ERA of any starter on tonight's board. Twenty five starts, 149 innings, a 2.54 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP, 152 strikeouts against 40 walks and a .208 opponent average. Cleveland is -161 on the back of it.

George Klassen has made five starts and thrown 21.2 innings. His 3.74 ERA looks respectable until the walk column: 18 walks in 21.2 innings is 7.48 per nine, and the 1.62 WHIP behind that ERA says he has been pitching out of traffic rather than avoiding it.

Neither offense is the reason to watch. The Angels score 4.10 runs a game with a .686 OPS and Cleveland scores 4.02 with a .684, the two lowest OPS marks on this board other than Seattle. The total is 7.5 and the Angels team total is hanging at 3.5.

This is the closest price on the board. San Diego is -114 and Pittsburgh is even money, and the two clubs are separated by eight games in the standings, which tells you how much the market thinks of the pitching matchup.

Braxton Ashcraft has thrown 149.1 innings with 33 walks, a rate of 1.99 per nine, the best control number of any starter working tonight. His 3.68 ERA and 1.08 WHIP are built on that, and the one blemish is 21 home runs allowed.

Robbie Ray gets to a 3.20 ERA the hard way: 68 walks in 137.2 innings, 4.45 per nine, and a 1.31 WHIP. San Diego scores 4.31 runs a game, the third lowest figure on this board, and Pittsburgh scores 4.95. The total is 7.5 with the under priced at -115, the shorter side.

Chicago scores 5.22 runs a game with a .762 OPS, the best offensive numbers on this board, and the Cubs are 75-56. Arizona is 69-62 and scores 4.56. The Cubs are -140 and the total is 9, the second highest number of the night.

Merrill Kelly is why the number is nine. He carries a 5.37 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP with 26 home runs allowed in 129 innings, 57 walks and a .280 opponent average, the worst combination of any starter on this board outside Sacramento.

Kevin Gausman is not much of an answer from the other side. A 4.58 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP over 143.1 innings, 18 home runs, and a Cubs staff that has allowed 196 home runs on the season, the most of any club playing tonight. Two flyball staffs in Phoenix is how a nine becomes an eleven.

The total here is 11. Nothing else on the board is above nine, and the gap between this number and the 6.5 in Seattle is the widest spread of totals on any single board this season.

The Athletics staff has a 5.47 ERA, has allowed 200 home runs and 5.76 runs a game, every one of those the worst figure in this group. Jeffrey Springs is the starter, and his 6.02 ERA with 29 home runs in 113.2 innings is the worst pitching line anyone will run out tonight.

Minnesota does not fix it. Zebby Matthews has a 5.12 ERA and 19 home runs in 96.2 innings, which is 1.77 per nine. The Twins score 4.58 runs a game and the Athletics 4.34, a combined 8.92 against a number of 11, so the market is asking for more than two runs above the pace of both clubs.

The best pitching matchup of the night and the lowest number on the board, a 6.5 at T-Mobile Park. Philadelphia is -112 and Seattle is even money, which is a remarkably short price for a 62-69 club.

Zack Wheeler owns the best line of any starter playing tonight: 2.92 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 144 strikeouts in 120.1 innings, a 10.77 strikeout rate and a .202 opponent average. Logan Gilbert is not far behind with a 3.35 ERA, an identical 1.01 WHIP and 157 strikeouts in 150.1 innings.

Seattle scores 3.92 runs a game, the lowest figure of any club on this board, with a .684 OPS and a .229 average. Philadelphia scores 4.57. A 6.5 with these two arms is the number the market is most confident about tonight, and the Seattle team total is sitting at 2.5 on the board.

Chase Burns has the best ERA of any starter on this board at 2.51, with a 1.11 WHIP, 159 strikeouts in 136 innings and a .208 opponent average. Cincinnati is -160 because of him and very little else.

Carson Whisenhunt has made seven starts and thrown 32 innings with a 7.03 ERA, a 1.84 WHIP and 20 walks, a rate of 5.63 per nine, and opponents are hitting .300. That is the largest gap between two starting pitchers anywhere on tonight's schedule.

The bats keep the total at 7. San Francisco scores 4.02 runs a game and Cincinnati 4.10, the two clubs sitting ninth and tenth on this board in scoring, and Oracle Park has never been the place to bet a number up. The Giants are 52-78 and the Reds are 62-69.