#9 Illinois @ #5 Nebraska
Sunday, 4:00 PM ET | Pinnacle Bank Arena, Lincoln, NE
This is the game of the day in college basketball, and it's not particularly close. When #9 Illinois (18-3, 9-1 Big Ten) travels to Lincoln to face #5 Nebraska (20-1, 9-1 Big Ten), we're getting two of the best teams in the country battling for sole possession of first place in the Big Ten. The Cornhuskers are looking to rebound from their first loss of the season, a result that dropped them from the ranks of the unbeatens. Meanwhile, the Fighting Illini have been on an absolute tear, winners of 10 straight games and playing the most efficient offensive basketball in the entire country according to KenPom.
Nebraska's lone loss this season showed that this team, despite their remarkable record, can be vulnerable. Fred Hoiberg's squad has built their success on elite defense, ranking 21st nationally and allowing just 65.4 points per game. The Cornhuskers have been nearly unbeatable at home, winning 12 straight at Pinnacle Bank Arena where the crowd creates one of the toughest environments in the Big Ten. Their 6-1 ATS record in the last seven games suggests the market has been undervaluing them, but facing Illinois' #1-ranked KenPom offense presents a different challenge entirely.
Brad Underwood has Illinois playing at an elite level on both ends. The Illini rank first in KenPom's offensive efficiency and second in the Big Ten in scoring at 85.0 points per game. However, their 3-6 SU and ATS record against top-25 scoring defenses this season is a concerning trend heading into this matchup. Illinois has the firepower to outscore anyone, but Nebraska's defensive intensity at home could neutralize their advantages. The 150.5 total reflects the expectation of a moderately-paced game controlled by defense.
The 1.5-point spread essentially makes this a pick'em, which is appropriate for two teams with identical conference records meeting on the road. FanDuel's model gives Nebraska a 70.2% win probability, while BetMGM predicts the Huskers with 64.6% confidence. Both teams enter with 13-8 ATS records this season, making this a true toss-up from a betting perspective. Home court advantage and Nebraska's defensive identity could be the difference in what should be an instant classic in Lincoln.