NCAAB January 16, 2026

Three days ago, Bill Self's team "sucked." His words. After a gut-wrenching road loss to West Virginia, Self publicly buried his squad. Their response? They demolished previously unbeaten, second-ranked Iowa State 84-63 at Allen Fieldhouse on Tuesday. Tre White dropped 19 points on five 3-pointers. Darryn Peterson added 16. Kansas shot 50.8% from the field and 50.0% from three while forcing Iowa State into 24% shooting and 12 turnovers. It was the largest home win over a Top-5 opponent in Phog Allen history.

Now Baylor (11-5, 8-2 away) walks into that buzz saw. Here's the terrifying stat for Bears bettors: Scott Drew's program has won just once in 21 tries at Lawrence. Once. In the entire history of the series. Kansas (12-5, 7-1 home) is 13-2 against top-five teams at Allen Fieldhouse under Self. The Phog was the only venue in America where a crowd was genuinely favored to will their team past the nation's #2 team, and they delivered.

ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives Kansas a 77.5% win probability. 5 to -6.5, suggesting professional analysis may be on Baylor. But chasing value against Kansas at home after that Iowa State statement feels like catching a falling knife. Self's teams are 24-5 at Allen Fieldhouse against higher-ranked opponents. Baylor is quality, but this is a terrible spot.

The Play: Kansas -6.5 (-112). You don't bet against Allen Fieldhouse after what happened Tuesday. The crowd will still be electric, the team is playing with house money, and Self knows how to handle Big 12 showdowns. The Jayhawks cover and make another statement.

Big East basketball is always a grind, and this Creighton-Providence matchup epitomizes what makes the conference so special. The Bluejays come in as slight road favorites at -1.5, which tells you everything about Greg McDermott's program. Creighton plays beautiful basketball with unselfish ball movement and high-percentage looks through their motion offense. They win on the road because they don't need home crowds to execute.

Providence has been solid at Amica Mutual Pavilion, using their home court as a fortress in Big East play. The Friars play tough, physical defense designed to slow tempo and force half-court battles. Ed Cooley may have moved to Georgetown, but Kim English has maintained that defensive identity. Providence is 7-4 at home and 4-2 ATS in their last 6 home games against winning teams. They'll compete hard for 40 minutes.

The 162.5 total is relatively high for a Big East road game, suggesting both offenses should find rhythm. The over has hit in 5 of the last 7 meetings between these teams. Creighton at -1.5 is essentially a pick'em. The Bluejays cover 55% of the time as road favorites of 2 points or less, but Providence's home-court advantage evens this out.

The Play: Providence +1.5. The Friars are 4-2 ATS at home against winning teams, and this line is too close to give up the home-court advantage. Creighton might win, but it'll be by a bucket. Take the half-point of insurance.

Read this sentence and let it sink in: Marquette is 6-12. The Golden Eagles are 1-6 in Big East play and ranked #118 in KenPom. They've lost all seven road games this season. They're 0-8 as an underdog. Zero wins. Not a single one. When Marquette is getting points, they find a way to lose by more. That's not bad luck. That's a broken program.

DePaul (10-7, 2-4 Big East) is ranked #109 in KenPom and a 3.5-point home favorite. The Blue Demons are 9-1 when favored on the moneyline this season, winning 90% of those games. They've won 9 of 13 at Wintrust Arena. When DePaul smells blood against an inferior opponent, they close. Their implied winning margin of 3 points (projected score 73-70) feels conservative given Marquette's total collapse.

The 142.5 total is interesting because these teams average 147.2 combined PPG. That's 4.7 points higher than tonight's number. Eight times this season, DePaul games have gone over 142.5. But Marquette's road offensive struggles (2-4 ATS when getting 3.5+ points) suggest they might not hold up their end of the scoring bargain.

The Play: DePaul -3.5. KenPom gives the Blue Demons a 66% win probability with a projected final of 73-69. Marquette hasn't won as an underdog all season. They haven't won a road game all season. DePaul at home finishes the job and covers with room to spare.

Dayton laying 17.5 points is massive. The Flyers have been one of the Atlantic 10's dominant forces, playing elite basketball at UD Arena where the crowd creates one of the best mid-major atmospheres in America. Anthony Grant has built a program that plays to their home-court advantage with ruthless efficiency. They're 10-2 at home and cover spreads of 15+ points 62% of the time under Grant.

Loyola Chicago (2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games against winning teams) doesn't have the firepower to compete here. The Ramblers play disciplined defense and try to slow the pace, which is their only path to keeping games competitive. Drew Valentine's squad will make Dayton work, but the talent gap is significant. When Loyola gets down 10 in the second half, they don't have the offensive weapons to climb back.

The 142.5 total is low because Loyola will try to grind this into a 60-possession game. The under has hit in 5 of the last 7 Ramblers road games and 4 of the last 6 A-10 games at UD Arena. But Dayton's offensive efficiency at home is elite. If they get rolling, they can score 85+ even against pace-slowing opponents.

The Play: Dayton -17.5. The Flyers are 7-4 ATS as double-digit home favorites. They cover 62% of 15+ point spreads at UD Arena. Loyola is broken on the road (2-6 ATS vs winning teams). Dayton pulls away in the second half and covers.

The late-night Mountain West showdown brings us a matchup that screams "under." Boise State (9-3 at home) plays physical, defensive-oriented basketball at ExtraMile Arena. The Broncos win games in the 60s. Colorado State (2-5 ATS in their last 7 road conference games) struggles on the road against teams that can grind. This is a classic Mountain West slug-fest.

The 141.5 total is the lowest on tonight's college hoops slate. That's not an accident. The under has hit in 7 of the last 10 meetings between these Mountain West rivals and 5 of Colorado State's last 6 road games. Boise State's home defensive rating is 8.4 points better than their road mark. They'll make Colorado State work for every basket.

The spread sits at Boise State -5.5, and the Broncos are 6-3 ATS as home favorites of 4-7 points. That's the sweet spot for them. Colorado State has talent but inconsistency, and road games against physical defenses expose their flaws. This could easily be a 58-52 type game where the final minutes are a free throw contest.

The Play: Under 141.5. This is the sharpest total on the board. Both teams play slow, physical basketball. The under has dominated this series (7 of last 10 meetings). Boise State's home defense is elite. Take the under and enjoy the grind.