NCAAF Analysis

This is it. The CFP Semifinal at the Peach Bowl. Indiana comes in riding a 14-0 perfect season after dismantling Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl Quarterfinal. Oregon's 13-1 squad blanked Texas Tech 23-0 in the Orange Bowl to get here. One of these teams heads to Miami to face the Hurricanes for the national title.

Look, Indiana's undefeated record is legit. They already beat Oregon 30-20 in Bloomington back in October during Big Ten play. But here's the thing - that was regular season Oregon. Playoff Oregon is a different beast. Dillon Gabriel has been surgical in the postseason, and their defense has allowed just 34 points in two playoff games combined.

The Hoosiers under Curt Cignetti have been the story of college football this year. First-year head coach, first undefeated regular season in program history, first CFP appearance. But they're also a team that hasn't faced true postseason adversity until now. That Rose Bowl blowout against 'Bama was impressive, but Oregon's experienced this stage before.

The line at Indiana -3.5 feels like disrespect to Oregon. You're getting the more talented team, with more playoff experience, at plus points in a semifinal. The Ducks' defense travels - they've proven that all season. And while Indiana's been dominant, their margin of victory has been tighter against elite competition.

This game comes down to whether Indiana's defense can slow down Oregon's tempo. The Ducks want to push pace and get 75+ plays. Indiana wants a controlled, physical game in the 60-play range. Whoever dictates tempo wins.

My lean: Oregon +3.5. Better coaching staff in big moments, more NFL talent on the roster, and getting points. The under 48.5 also looks live - both defenses have been elite in the playoffs.