Twelve Games, Holmes At 2.26 Against Harrison At 2.79, And Five Starters Under Thirty Innings

The first pitch of the night and the largest gap in run prevention on the early board. Atlanta is 82-55 and has allowed 519 runs in 137 games behind a 3.55 staff ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. San Francisco is 56-81 and has allowed 634 with a 4.35 and a 1.36. The Braves have also struck out 1,162 hitters against the Giants’ 1,031.

Anthony Molina takes the ball for San Francisco with 9.1 major league innings to his name, none of them as a starter. He carries a 2.89 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP and three strikeouts. Nine innings is the smallest body of work of any pitcher scheduled anywhere in baseball tonight and there is essentially nothing in it to read either way.

Bryce Elder answers at 8-7 with a 3.95 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP and a .240 opponent average across 143.2 innings and 25 starts. He is not a strikeout arm at 7.39 per nine, which puts the weight on a Braves defence that has been the better half of this matchup all season. No number appears here.

San Diego is 72-65 and Cincinnati 65-72, and the separation is entirely on the mound. The Padres carry a 3.94 staff ERA and have allowed 573 runs. The Reds sit at 4.67 and 678, the second worst run prevention of any club playing tonight. Neither offense is good: San Diego scores at a .699 OPS, Cincinnati at .703, and the Reds hit .228 as a team, the lowest average on this board.

Michael King is the best line in this game by a distance. Eight and nine with a 3.23 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP and a .217 opponent average across 156 innings and 27 starts. Only two starters working tonight have thrown more innings, and nobody with his workload has a lower opponent average.

Brady Singer counters at 5-12 with a 4.72 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP and a .274 opponent average over 137.1 innings. The record is uglier than the pitcher, but the .274 is real, and in this ballpark contact is the thing that gets punished. No number appears here.

Tampa Bay is 82-54 and 46-23 at home, the best home record of any club on tonight’s board. The Rays hit .260 as a team, the highest average here, get on base at .329, also the highest, and run a 1.15 staff WHIP, the lowest figure among the twenty four teams playing. New York is 61-76 and has allowed 615 runs.

Robert Stock starts for the Mets with 20.2 innings on the season, a 7.40 ERA, a 1.94 WHIP, thirteen walks and a .307 opponent average. Those are the worst marks on the entire board in every one of those four categories. Twenty innings across five starts is an opener’s workload, and the Mets bullpen should expect a long evening.

Ian Seymour answers at 9-5 with a 4.21 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and 128 strikeouts in 107 innings, which is 10.77 per nine, the third highest rate on this board. Opponents hit .225 against him. The ERA is the least flattering number on his line and the other three explain why.

Boston is 74-63 with a 3.57 staff ERA and 525 runs allowed, the second best run prevention on tonight’s board behind only the Yankees. Seattle is 64-73 and has scored 530 runs with a .679 OPS and a .227 average, both the worst offensive figures of any club playing tonight.

Payton Tolle has been the better half of the Boston rotation. Eight and six, a 3.09 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, a .218 opponent average and 141 strikeouts in 125.1 innings, which is 10.13 per nine. Every one of those is better than his own staff’s season figure.

George Kirby is 9-10 with a 4.02 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP over 147.2 innings. The number that stands out on his line is a .282 opponent average, the highest of any starter tonight with a full season behind him. The offsetting number is 34 walks in 147.2 innings, so the traffic he allows is hit traffic rather than free traffic.

Washington is 65-74 and has scored 720 runs in 139 games with a .754 OPS, the best offensive figures of any club playing tonight. The Nationals have also allowed 704 runs behind a 4.67 ERA, which is why 65-74 and the best offense on the board sit in the same sentence. Miami is 69-68 and has allowed 579 with a 3.90.

Ryan Gusto starts for Miami at 1-3 with a 3.98 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP and a .257 opponent average across 63.1 innings and thirteen starts. It is a modest sample and a modest line, and the Marlins have been getting their results from the staff behind him rather than the arm in front.

Will Dion answers for Washington with 34.1 innings, none of them starts, carrying a 3.67 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, a .233 opponent average and 41 strikeouts, 10.75 per nine. That is the best rate of anyone on this board under fifty innings, and it is also thirty four innings, which is not a season. No number appears here.

Detroit is 63-73 and has allowed 531 runs in 136 games with a 3.58 staff ERA, the third best mark on tonight’s board. Minnesota is 65-72 and has allowed 682 with a 4.65. Two clubs within two games of each other in the standings and more than a run apart in run prevention, which is a reminder how little the record says on its own.

Jackson Jobe gets the ball for Detroit with 18.1 innings across four starts, a 3.93 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. Eighteen innings is the second smallest workload of any starter tonight. Fifteen strikeouts and eight walks over that stretch is a control profile still being built.

Taj Bradley answers at 9-6 with a 3.97 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP and 169 strikeouts across 147.1 innings, which is 10.32 per nine and the most strikeouts of any starter working tonight. Opponents hit .224. Sixty three walks is the leak. No number appears here.

The best game on the board and it is not close. Milwaukee is 85-52, the best record in baseball tonight, with a 3.37 staff ERA, a 1.16 WHIP and 1,320 strikeouts, the highest total of any club playing. Chicago is 77-60 and has scored 725 runs with a .767 OPS, the best offense on this board by both measures.

Clay Holmes carries the lowest ERA of any starter tonight at 2.26, with a 1.06 WHIP and a .201 opponent average across 75.2 innings and thirteen starts. He does it without missing many bats, 6.54 per nine, which is the unusual part of the line and the part that makes the workload question fair.

Kyle Harrison answers at 10-3 with a 2.79 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, a .227 opponent average and 127 strikeouts in 103.1 innings, an 11.06 rate that is the highest of anyone starting tonight. Two starters under a 2.80 ERA in the same game does not happen often on a twelve game board. No number appears here.

The Athletics are 53-84 with a run differential of minus 191 and have allowed 787 runs in 137 games behind a 5.43 staff ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. Those are the poorest marks of any club playing tonight and among the poorest in the sport. Texas is 67-70 and 36-29 at home against 31-41 on the road.

Jacob deGrom is 9-9 with a 4.21 ERA, which is the least useful number on his line. He has struck out 159 in 130.1 innings against 37 walks, a 4.3 strikeout to walk ratio and 10.98 per nine, with a 1.18 WHIP and a .234 opponent average. Only two men working tonight miss bats at a higher rate.

Gage Jump counters at 6-8 with a 4.69 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP and 42 walks in 88.1 innings. He misses bats himself at 9.88 per nine, so the strikeouts are real, but the free baserunners are the number that decides how this game gets away from anyone.

Chicago is 72-64 with a run differential of plus 44. Houston is 69-68 at minus 43. The White Sox have scored 652 runs, the second highest total on this board, and allowed 608. The Astros have scored 624 and allowed 667 behind a 4.62 staff ERA. Houston is also 33-35 at home.

Peter Lambert starts for Houston at 8-7 with a 3.66 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP and a .222 opponent average, the third lowest of any starter tonight. The caveat is 51 walks in 128 innings, which is the highest walk total on this board relative to workload.

Anthony Kay answers at 9-6 with a 4.09 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, a .256 opponent average and 47 walks in 132 innings. Two starters with similar command problems and a full run of separation in opponent average is the shape of this game.

Colorado is 52-85 and has allowed 786 runs behind a 5.49 staff ERA and a 1.52 WHIP, and its staff has struck out just 930 hitters, the lowest team total of any club playing tonight by more than a hundred. The Rockies also hit .252 with a .737 OPS at home in the thinnest air in the sport, which is the annual Coors contradiction.

Baltimore is 68-69 and has not named a starter. That is worth saying plainly rather than filling with a guess, and it changes what any read on this game is worth until the name is posted.

Tanner Gordon takes the ball for Colorado at 1-4 with a 5.38 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP and a .307 opponent average across 83.2 innings. Fifteen walks in that stretch is genuinely good control. The .307 says the contact is the problem, and Coors is the last place a contact problem gets hidden. No number appears here.

New York is 78-59 with a 3.21 staff ERA, a 1.17 WHIP and 505 runs allowed, the best run prevention of any club playing tonight. The Yankees also hit .232 as a team, the second lowest average on this board, and win anyway on that pitching. Los Angeles is 52-85.

Walbert Ureña is the reason this game is worth a paragraph. Eight and nine with a 2.94 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP and a .203 opponent average across 116.1 innings and 22 starts. The .203 is the second lowest on the board. The 64 walks in 116.1 innings is why the WHIP does not match the ERA, and it is the thing that will decide his night.

Elmer Rodríguez counters for New York with 23 innings across five starts, a 4.70 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP. Sixteen strikeouts against thirteen walks over that stretch is close to even, and even is not a rotation profile yet. No number appears here.

The last game of the night. Philadelphia is 77-60 and its staff has struck out 1,349 hitters, the highest total of any club in baseball tonight. Arizona is 73-65 and its staff has struck out 945 hitters, the second lowest here. Both offenses sit within a point of each other at .716 and .714.

Aaron Nola carries the highest ERA of any established starter tonight at 5.03, with a 1.40 WHIP and a .270 opponent average across 143 innings and 27 starts. The strikeouts are still there at 9.63 per nine and 153 on the season, so this is a contact and sequencing problem rather than a stuff problem.

Arizona has not posted a starter. As with Baltimore, that is left blank here rather than guessed at. No number appears on this game either.