NBA February 5, 2026

If you told anyone two years ago that the Detroit Pistons would be laying 15.5 points as home favorites in February, they'd have laughed you out of the building. But here we are. Detroit at 37-12 has been one of the most remarkable turnaround stories in recent NBA history, a team that went from lottery laughingstock to legitimate title contender in what feels like overnight. Cade Cunningham's development into a franchise-caliber point guard has been the catalyst, and the supporting cast has exceeded every projection. The Pistons are playing with supreme confidence at Little Caesars Arena, and they've earned every bit of this massive spread.

Washington at 13-36 is the polar opposite. The Wizards are in full tank mode, and the results reflect it. This roster lacks the talent, depth, and cohesion to compete with even average NBA teams, let alone a juggernaut like Detroit. The 15.5-point line is enormous by NBA standards, but it exists for a reason. When these two teams have met this season, it hasn't been competitive. Washington's offensive efficiency ranks among the worst in the league, and their defensive numbers are even more troubling. There's simply no matchup advantage for the Wizards to exploit here.

The 226.5 total is interesting because it depends entirely on how long Detroit keeps its starters in. If this game follows the expected script, the Pistons could be up 25+ by the third quarter, and the benches will play the entire fourth. That tends to suppress scoring. But even in blowouts, the pace of the modern NBA keeps totals elevated. Washington will try to push tempo because that's their only chance to keep things from getting embarrassing early, but Detroit's defense has been suffocating all season. This one could get ugly in a hurry.

The Magic at 25-24 are in that frustrating middle ground where they're clearly better than the league's basement dwellers but haven't quite made the leap to contender status. Paolo Banchero has been their engine all season, and Orlando's defense remains one of the most disruptive units in the Eastern Conference. The length, athleticism, and shot-blocking ability this roster possesses makes it incredibly difficult for opponents to get comfortable looks at the rim. At the Kia Center, the Magic have been especially stingy, and the 214.5 total, the lowest number on tonight's board, speaks to their defensive identity.

Brooklyn at 13-36 is in the same neighborhood as Washington when it comes to the talent gap. The Nets are in full rebuild mode, shipping out veterans and accumulating assets for the future. There's young talent worth watching, but none of it translates to competitive basketball against a playoff-caliber team. Brooklyn's offensive struggles have been well-documented, and they rank near the bottom of the league in virtually every efficiency metric. The 9.5-point spread is large, but the Magic's defensive advantage alone should be worth close to that number.

The real question here is whether Orlando can generate enough offense to blow this open. The Magic's Achilles heel all season has been their scoring consistency. They'll hold you to 100 points, but can they score 110 themselves? Against the Nets, that shouldn't be an issue, as Brooklyn's defense has been among the leakiest in the league. Expect a physical, grind-it-out affair where Orlando controls the tempo and the Nets struggle to create quality looks. The low total and the large spread both point in the same direction: this should be an Orlando-controlled, low-event game from start to finish.

The 245.5 total is the highest number on the entire Thursday slate, and it tells you everything you need to know about what's expected in Atlanta. The Hawks at 25-27 play at one of the fastest paces in the league and prioritize offense above everything else. Trae Young continues to be one of the most dynamic playmakers in basketball, dishing out assists at an elite clip while maintaining his scoring average well above 25 points per game. When Atlanta is at State Farm Arena, the tempo gets cranked up even further, and opposing defenses struggle to keep up with the barrage of pick-and-rolls, lobs, and three-pointers.

Utah at 16-35 is another team deep in tank territory, but they at least play with enough offensive freedom to contribute to shootouts like this. The Jazz aren't going to win many games, but they'll certainly try to score. Lauri Markkanen has been a bright spot all season, and Utah's young guards play with a pace that aligns perfectly with Atlanta's preferred style. This is a matchup where neither team is particularly invested in slowing things down, which is why the total is sitting at a stratospheric 245.5.

Here's the thing about games with totals this high: the market is essentially telling you to expect a track meet. Both teams rank in the bottom third of the league defensively, and the pace projection for this matchup is off the charts. Atlanta should win this comfortably based on the talent gap, but the 9.5-point spread is a lot to lay when the game figures to be played in the 120s. The Jazz have enough shooters to hang around and make some runs, even if Atlanta's talent eventually overwhelms them. Expect a fun, high-scoring affair with very little defense played by either side.

Toronto at 30-22 has been one of the best stories in the Eastern Conference, and the Raptors have Scotiabank Arena rocking on a nightly basis. Brandon Ingram has been a revelation since arriving from New Orleans, giving this team the isolation scoring and shot creation they desperately needed. Paired with Scottie Barnes, who continues his ascent toward All-Star status, Toronto has a dynamic one-two punch that's been too much for most opponents to handle. The Raptors' home record has been excellent, and they bring a defensive intensity that suffocates mediocre offenses.

Chicago at 24-27 is in a weird spot this season. The Bulls traded Zach LaVine to the Kings and have been operating with a roster that's good enough to be competitive but not talented enough to be a real threat. DeMar DeRozan, if still anchoring things, has kept Chicago relevant through sheer force of will and midrange wizardry. But the Bulls lack the kind of high-end talent that Toronto possesses, and road games against quality opponents have been a consistent struggle. The 7.5-point spread tells you the market sees a clear gap between these two rosters.

The 227.5 total sits right in the middle of tonight's board, reflecting a game that should be moderately paced. Toronto's defense has been the foundation of their success, and they'll look to impose that identity early. Chicago will need to be efficient on offense to stay within shouting distance, and that's been easier said than done against the length and activity that the Raptors bring defensively. If Toronto comes out sharp, this could get out of hand by halftime. The Bulls simply don't have the personnel to go shot-for-shot with a team that has Ingram and Barnes both firing.

Houston at 31-18 has been absolutely transformed since acquiring Kevin Durant in the July 2025 blockbuster. Durant has given the Rockets exactly what they've needed for years: a bonafide superstar closer who can get a bucket against any defense in any situation. The Toyota Center has become one of the toughest places to play in the league, and Houston's combination of Durant's scoring, their young core's energy, and a defense that ranks among the NBA's best has made them a legitimate Western Conference contender. The loss of Fred VanVleet to a torn ACL was a blow, but this team has found ways to compensate through depth and defensive intensity.

Charlotte at 23-28 has been a pleasant surprise in spots this season. LaMelo Ball's health has been the key variable, as the Hornets are a completely different team when he's on the floor. Ball's ability to push pace, create for others, and light up the scoreboard from 30 feet gives Charlotte a ceiling that's much higher than their record suggests. The Hornets have shown they can compete with good teams when everything clicks, which is why this 4.5-point spread is smaller than you might expect for a home favorite of Houston's caliber.

The 218.5 total is relatively low, reflecting Houston's defensive dominance at Toyota Center. The Rockets don't give up easy baskets, and their length around the rim has been a nightmare for opposing driving guards all season. Charlotte will need Ball to be at his creative best to find cracks in this defense, and even then, the Rockets' ability to turn stops into transition buckets makes it an uphill battle. This is the kind of game where Houston's depth advantage tends to show up in the second half, as the Rockets grind opponents down with relentless defensive pressure and quality shot-making from Durant and the supporting cast.

The Warriors at 27-24 are in a tough spot right now, and it has everything to do with the Jimmy Butler situation. Golden State acquired Butler to be the missing piece alongside Stephen Curry, but a torn ACL suffered on January 16 has ended Butler's season and left the Warriors scrambling to adjust. Losing a player of Butler's caliber, someone who was supposed to be the defensive anchor and secondary scorer, has fundamentally changed what this team can be. Curry is still Curry, capable of lighting up any arena on any night, but asking a 37-year-old to carry the load every single game is a recipe for inconsistency.

Phoenix at 31-20 has been solid all season, even after trading away their franchise cornerstone to Houston in July. The Suns rebuilt on the fly and have found a formula that works, leaning heavily on Devin Booker and a supporting cast that plays cohesive basketball. At the Footprint Center, Phoenix has been especially dangerous, and their defensive rating at home ranks in the top ten league-wide. The 5.5-point spread is significant, reflecting the Suns' home court advantage and the Warriors' recent struggles without Butler in the lineup.

The 214.5 total is the joint-lowest on the board tonight, and it makes sense when you consider the defensive identities both teams want to play with. Phoenix has been grinding teams down with half-court defense, and the Warriors, even without Butler, still have enough defensive competence to keep games in check. Curry will get his shots, but the question is whether the rest of Golden State's roster can generate enough offense to keep pace with Booker and the Suns' balanced attack. This is a tough road spot for a Warriors team that's still figuring out life without their second-best player.