Tonight's NBA Games

Look, everyone's gonna see Indiana's 0-10 road slide and immediately hammer Charlotte. That's lazy thinking. The Pacers are getting 3.5 points for a reason beyond just being terrible - they're actually due for some positive regression.

Charlotte's 35% home win rate isn't exactly inspiring confidence, and their 4-6 home stretch includes some ugly losses. The public loves fading road dogs on extended losing streaks, but that's exactly when you find value going the other way.

Indiana's been competitive in several recent games despite the losses. They're not getting blown out nightly - they're just finding ways to lose close ones. Eventually variance swings back. Charlotte's inconsistent enough at home that they can't be trusted laying points to anyone.

The market's overadjusting to Indiana's losing streak while undervaluing how mediocre Charlotte actually is. Both teams stink, but getting nearly four points with the desperate road dog feels right.

Miami getting 7.5 points of respect they haven't earned lately. Sure, they're the "better" team on paper, but these L10 records tell the real story - both squads are treading water at .500 over their last ten.

The market's still pricing Miami like they're that scrappy playoff team from years past, but this version is inconsistent as hell. They're 54% on the road, which sounds decent until you realize Chicago's been equally mediocre at home.

Here's what jumps out: this total at 237.5 screams overreaction to some recent high-scoring games. Both teams rank middle-of-the-pack offensively, and January basketball in Chicago tends to get ugly fast. The United Center isn't exactly known for lighting up scoreboards in winter.

Bulls have been frisky at home against decent competition, and seven and a half feels like Vegas expects Miami to just show up and cruise. That's not happening with two .500 teams grinding through the season's dead zone.