NBA January 16, 2026

Let's call this what it is: a tank bowl. New Orleans (10-33) and Indiana (9-32) are two of the three worst teams in the NBA, and this game is more about draft positioning than playoff implications. But here's the thing about bad team matchups: they're often goldmines for sharp bettors because the public ignores them and the lines get soft.

The Pelicans have been a disaster, but Zion Williamson (22.4 PPG, 5.7 RPG) and Trey Murphy III (22.2 PPG, 6.2 RPG) have actually been productive when healthy. The problem is the "when healthy" part. New Orleans has been decimated by injuries all season, and their defensive rating is bottom-five in the league. They're allowing 118+ points per 100 possessions on the road, which is catastrophic.

Indiana's issues are different. Tyrese Haliburton hasn't been the same player post-Achilles, and the supporting cast has regressed. The Pacers still play fast, but they're not converting at the same rate. Their pace ranks top-10, but their offensive efficiency ranks bottom-10. That's a recipe for high-possession, low-quality basketball. Home court matters here: Indiana is significantly better at Gainbridge (where they're 6-11) than on the road (3-21).

The 238.5 total is the real play. Both teams play fast but neither defends. The Pacers' last 8 home games have averaged 241.3 total points. New Orleans road games are averaging 236.8 combined. This number should be closer to 242. The Play: Over 238.5 (-110). Secondary lean: Indiana -2.5, but the total is the sharper side.

Here's the number that should scare Cleveland bettors: the Cavaliers are 14-28 ATS this season. That's a 33.3% cover rate, one of the worst in the league. Meanwhile, Philly is 23-16 ATS overall and 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games. The market has consistently overvalued Cleveland and undervalued Philadelphia. Two days ago, the Cavs won 133-107, but that blowout was the exception, not the rule.

The injury situation just tilted this game. Darius Garland exited Wednesday's game with an injury after scoring 20 points, and his status is questionable. That's 18.0 PPG potentially off the board for Cleveland. The Cavs are already thin, and asking Mitchell to shoulder even more offensive load on zero days rest is a lot. Meanwhile, Philly gets home court and rest advantage.

The ATS splits are damning for Cleveland: they're 7-11 ATS on the road, and even worse, they're 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games period. Philadelphia is 9-11 ATS at home, but they've covered 6 of their last 9. The market moved this line from PHI -2 to PHI -1.5 at some books, which tells you professional analysis might be on Cleveland. But the public is hammering the Cavs after that blowout win.

The total is the sharpest play here. These teams have gone OVER in 9 of their last 10 meetings, and the last two matchups averaged 257 combined points. The 234.5 number is too low given the offensive firepower. Maxey (30.5 PPG, 3rd in NBA) and Mitchell (29.7 PPG, 4th) are going to trade buckets. The Play: Over 234.5 (-110). Side lean: PHI -1.5 based on ATS trends and rest advantage, but the total is the higher-confidence play.

Nobody's tuning in for this one, which is exactly why there might be value. Brooklyn just got demolished by Houston 120-96, and the Nets are in full tank mode. They're playing young guys heavy minutes and not particularly worried about wins. Chicago is marginally better but stuck in the NBA's most frustrating position: too good to tank, too bad to contend.

The ATS angle here favors Chicago. Brooklyn is just 4-7 ATS as home favorites this season. When the Nets lay points, they tend to play down to competition. The Bulls aren't good, but they're scrappy enough to hang around in games like this. Chicago covers 52% of the time as road underdogs of 3 or fewer points, which is a small but real edge.

The 225.5 total is the lowest on tonight's board, and it's set there for a reason. Both teams rank bottom-10 in offensive efficiency. Brooklyn's pace is moderate, but they don't convert possessions efficiently. Chicago grinds games out. The under has hit in 5 of the Bulls' last 7 road games and in 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings. Neither team has the firepower to push this over 225.

This is a stay-away game for most sharps, but if you're playing it: The Play: Under 225.5 (-110) is the stronger lean. Secondary: Chicago +2.5 based on Brooklyn's poor ATS record as home favorites and the Bulls' ability to cover as small road dogs. But honestly, there are better spots on tonight's board.

The Clippers are on a heater: 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games. That's an absurd 84.6% cover rate during this stretch. Kawhi Leonard (28.2 PPG, 2.2 SPG leading the league) is finally healthy and playing like a top-10 player again. James Harden (25.6 PPG, 8.0 APG) has found his rhythm in LA's system. When these two are clicking, the Clippers can beat anyone. The question is sustainability.

Toronto's ATS numbers tell a different story depending on where they play. The Raptors are 12-8-0 ATS on the road but just 9-13-0 ATS at home. That's a massive split. Even more concerning: Toronto is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games against Western Conference opponents. The Clippers qualify. Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram have been solid, but the Raptors struggle to close games at Scotiabank against quality competition.

The under trend is screaming here. The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Toronto's last 17 games, UNDER in 9 of their last 13 games against the Clippers specifically, and UNDER in 6 of their last 9 home games. The 215.5 is already low, but the market knows these teams grind defensively against each other. Both rank top-12 in defensive rating, and the pace should be slower than the Raptors' typical home games.

Here's the conflict: LA's recent ATS run says take the Clippers, but Toronto's model projection (60.4% win probability) says the Raptors are undervalued. The sharper play is the total. The Play: Under 215.5 (-110). The side is a toss-up, but if forced, lean Toronto +2 at home based on the model edge, but manage expectations given their brutal Western Conference ATS record.

INJURY ALERT: Anthony Edwards (foot) is OUT. This changes everything. Edwards (28.9 PPG on 50/41/79 splits) is one of five players averaging 28+ points this season, and he's sitting for the second straight game due to a foot injury linked to a toe infection. The Timberwolves are 5-3 without him this season, but those games came against weaker competition. This is a national TV matchup against a contending team led by Durant.

Minnesota (27-14) has proven they can survive without Edwards, but "survive" and "thrive" are different things. The supporting cast, Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, Mike Conley, will need to step up significantly. The Wolves' defensive identity (top-5 in defensive rating) travels, but their offense without Edwards is a different animal. Expect Houston to pack the paint and dare Minnesota's role players to beat them.

Houston (23-15) just demolished Brooklyn 120-96, with Durant posting 22 points and 11 assists. The Rockets are 18-20-0 ATS this season, which is mediocre, but here's the key: Minnesota is 3-1 ATS when getting 3.5 or more points this year. The market set this line at HOU -3.5, and the Wolves have historically found value as underdogs. But that was with Edwards.

The total dropped from 226.5 to 222.5 once Edwards was ruled out. That's significant. Without Minnesota's primary scorer, the pace slows and the ceiling drops. Houston's defense has been solid at home, and Minnesota will grind this out. The Play: Under 222.5 (-110). The side is trickier. Houston should win, but -3.5 is a lot to lay against a well-coached, defensively elite team. If you're playing the side, wait for -3 or take Minnesota +4 if it moves.

Two dumpster fires meet in Sacramento for the late-night tank-off. Washington (10-29) and Sacramento (11-30) are both having disaster seasons, but for different reasons. The Wizards are rebuilding intentionally. They traded away assets, play young guys, and are fully committed to the tank. The Kings? They were supposed to be good after trading their former point guard to San Antonio and getting Zach LaVine. Instead, they're lottery-bound and the entire organization is in crisis.

The ATS trends heavily favor Sacramento in this spot. Washington is a brutal 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Wizards don't just lose, they get blown out. They're not covering because they're not trying to cover. Sacramento, meanwhile, is 5-3 ATS in their last 8 home games against losing teams. When the Kings play down to bad competition, they still usually win by enough.

The 232.5 total is interesting. Both teams play fast and neither defends, which should mean points. The over has hit in 6 of Washington's last 8 road games, and Kings home games have averaged 235.2 total points over their last 10. But here's the counter: late-night West Coast games involving tanking teams tend to get sloppy. Don't be surprised if both teams sleepwalk through stretches.

The Play: Sacramento -6.5 (-110). The Kings are bad, but they're still way more talented than Washington. They'll eventually break their funk, and this is the easiest home game they'll have all month. The total is a coin flip, but if you're playing it, lean Over 232.5 based on the trend data. Neither team has any interest in playing defense.