NBA January 29, 2026

Look, there's no sugarcoating this one: Sacramento has been an absolute disaster this season. The Kings are stumbling into Philly at a miserable 12-35, dead last in the Western Conference by a wide margin. The De'Aaron Fox trade to San Antonio in February 2025 ripped the heart out of this franchise, and they've been in freefall ever since. Zach LaVine, acquired in that same three-team deal, hasn't been the answer, and their offense ranks 28th in the league in efficiency.

Philadelphia at 24-21 isn't exactly world-beaters themselves, but Joel Embiid has returned to MVP form after his injury-plagued 2024-25 campaign. Embiid is averaging 28.6 points and 11.2 rebounds, and he'll feast against Sacramento's porous interior defense that allows the second-most points in the paint in the league. The 11.5-point spread is massive, but the talent disparity here is real. The Kings have covered just 35% of their games this season, and nothing about their recent play suggests that trend will reverse tonight.

The 227.5 total looks about right for a game where Philly should control the tempo. Sacramento wants to run, but they don't have the personnel to push pace effectively anymore. Expect the Sixers to grind this one out in the halfcourt, where Embiid's post presence creates constant double-team situations that kick out to open shooters. Tyrese Maxey (29.4 PPG) will get his opportunities as well. It's hard to get excited about laying nearly two touchdowns, but this is one of the league's true mismatches.

Here's a line that screams trap. Milwaukee at 18-27 is on a three-game losing skid and has been an absolute mess all season. Giannis Antetokounmpo is still putting up monster numbers, but the supporting cast has failed miserably, and Doc Rivers' defense has been one of the league's worst. The Bucks are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games, and there's no indication that anything has changed. When a team with a two-time MVP can't cover against the Wizards, something is fundamentally broken.

Washington at 11-34 is in full tank mode, but here's the thing: they've been scrappy at home lately. The Wizards are 4-1 ATS in their last five games, and they play with nothing to lose. Trae Young, acquired from Atlanta in January, has given them a legitimate offensive creator, and he'll push the pace against Milwaukee's disjointed defense. The Bucks' inability to defend without fouling has been a season-long issue, and Young will live at the free-throw line.

The 224.5 total has gone under in 13 of Milwaukee's last 20 games, which tells you the Bucks have been playing in rock fights rather than the high-scoring affairs we're accustomed to seeing from Giannis-led teams. This feels like a game where Washington hangs around, possibly wins outright, and exposes Milwaukee's many flaws on national TV. Prime Video audiences might be in for a surprising finish.

Kevin Durant and the Rockets roll into Atlanta as 4-point road favorites, and that line feels awfully light for what Houston has become this season. The Rockets sit at 28-16, third in the Western Conference, and Durant has been everything they hoped for since his blockbuster arrival from the franchise last July. At 36, Durant is still an efficient scoring machine, averaging 27.8 points on 52% shooting while elevating everyone around him. Houston has won 7 of their last 10, and their defensive rating has improved dramatically with Durant buying into Ime Udoka's system.

Atlanta without Trae Young is a fundamentally different team. The January trade to Washington stripped the Hawks of their identity, and they're still figuring out who they are. CJ McCollum, acquired in return, provides scoring but not the same level of playmaking, and the Hawks' offensive efficiency has cratered since the deal. At 20-26, they're fighting just to stay in the play-in picture, and facing the Durant-led Rockets isn't exactly a get-well spot.

The 224.5 total reflects Houston's defensive improvement under Udoka. This isn't the run-and-gun Rockets of years past; they grind teams down with length and switching ability, then let Durant go to work in isolation. Atlanta will struggle to generate easy looks, and without Young creating magic out of nothing, their offense becomes predictable. Houston should control this one from wire to wire.

The 241.5 total jumps off the page here. That's the highest number on Thursday's board, and it reflects the reality of two teams that have struggled mightily on the defensive end this season. Miami's post-their roster era has been about finding their offensive identity without their former star, and they've leaned into pace and spacing to compensate. The Heat at 25-22 are competitive but not dominant, and their road record has been inconsistent at best.

Chicago at 23-23 is the definition of mediocrity. They beat the teams they should beat and lose to everyone else. The Bulls have been better at home, where the United Center crowd still provides a lift, but their defensive effort comes and goes depending on the night. When both teams are in their defensive doldrums, you get games like this projected to land in the 240s. Don't expect a lot of stops from either side.

The 1.5-point spread tells you oddsmakers see this as a coin flip with a slight edge to the road team. Miami's veteran savvy and Erik Spoelstra's coaching give them an edge in close games, but Chicago's familiarity with their home court evens things out. This one likely comes down to the final two minutes, and whoever executes their late-game offense better will walk away with the win. The over looks attractive in a game where neither team is committed to defense.

If you'd told anyone a year ago that Charlotte would be road favorites in Dallas, they'd have called you crazy. But here we are: the Hornets (20-28) laying 3.5 against the Mavericks (19-28) in their own building. Dallas's roster (post-trade) rebuild has been painful to watch. Rookie Cooper Flagg, the No. 1 overall pick, shows flashes of his immense potential (18.8 PPG), but he's learning on the fly against NBA defenses, and the growing pains are evident. The Mavs have lost 5 of their last 7 and look completely overmatched most nights.

Charlotte has won three straight and is playing with confidence right now. Brandon Miller has emerged as a legitimate star at 22.4 points per game, and his two-way impact has transformed the Hornets' ceiling. LaMelo Ball remains electric when healthy, and the combination of Ball's playmaking and Miller's scoring creates enough offense to stay competitive against anyone. They're not a playoff team, but they're a hard out on any given night.

The 228.5 total reflects two teams that play at a moderate pace without great defensive identities. Charlotte is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, which suggests they've been undervalued by oddsmakers recently. Dallas, meanwhile, has failed to cover in 3 of their last 4 home games. The trend numbers favor the Hornets here, and the eye test does too. This is a strange world where Charlotte is the play in Dallas.

The 210.5 total is the lowest on Thursday's board, and for good reason. Brooklyn at 12-32 is one of the league's worst offensive teams, ranking dead last in points per game. They've been outscored by double digits in their last three losses, and their roster is devoid of shot creators. The Nets are in full tank mode, playing their young guys extended minutes while the veterans watch from the bench. It's not pretty basketball.

Denver at 31-15 is cruising through the Western Conference, and Nikola Jokic is making his case for a fourth MVP award. Jokic is averaging a ridiculous 27.2 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 9.4 assists, and his passing continues to unlock Denver's entire offensive system. The Nuggets are 18-4 at home this season, and the altitude advantage at Ball Arena makes them nearly unbeatable in their building. Visiting teams regularly run out of gas in the fourth quarter against Denver's conditioning.

The 7.5-point spread feels generous, but Brooklyn's lack of offensive firepower means this could easily turn into a 20-point blowout if Jokic is feeling it. The under at 210.5 is the play that stands out most here. Brooklyn can't score, and Denver will happily slow the game down once they build a comfortable lead. Expect a pace-controlled, methodical Nuggets victory.