January 2, 2026

All-Texas affair at Amon G. Carter Stadium, and let me tell you - this rematch carries some serious baggage. Texas State absolutely embarrassed Rice 45-21 in the 2023 First Responder Bowl, the kind of beatdown that lingers in a program's memory. The Owls have been waiting two years to get another crack at the Bobcats.

Here's what makes this interesting: Texas State brings one of the most physical rushing attacks in the Sun Belt. They've been bullying opponents all season with a ground game that averages over 200 yards per contest. Rice, meanwhile, has been building something special under their second-year coaching staff with a more balanced offensive approach.

The line should tell you everything - books are essentially calling this a toss-up with Texas State getting slight favoritism because of the head-to-head history. But bowl games have a funny way of evening things out when motivation is at stake. Rice players remember that 24-point embarrassment, and revenge is a powerful motivator. Take the Owls plus the points in what should be a tight, hard-fought game.

The service academy bowl dominance has become one of the most reliable trends in college football. Since 2021, military academies have won seven straight bowl games - and it's not hard to understand why. These programs spend all year preparing opponents for conventional offenses, and then they get three weeks to scheme for the triple-option. It never works out well for the opponent.

Navy comes in at 10-2, absolutely rolling through their schedule. The Midshipmen's triple-option attack is nearly impossible to simulate in practice, and Cincinnati's defensive coordinator is probably already having nightmares about assignment football. One wrong read, one missed assignment, and Navy hits you for 40 yards before you can blink.

Cincinnati is a quality program that's adjusted well to their Big 12 transition, but bowl prep for option football is a different animal entirely. The Bearcats will watch hours of film and still look confused in the first quarter. Navy's discipline and execution shine brightest in December. The Midshipmen cover and keep the service academy streak alive.

ACC meets SEC under the lights in Charlotte, and this one sets up as a classic strength-versus-finesse battle. Wake Forest brings that signature offensive creativity - the Demon Deacons have been spreading defenses out and hitting them with misdirection all season. Mississippi State counters with raw SEC physicality, the kind of downhill football that wears on you in the fourth quarter.

Here's the thing about bowl games in Charlotte: the crowd factor is essentially neutralized. Both programs travel decently, but neither will have a real home-field advantage. That levels the playing field and puts the emphasis on execution and scheme. Wake's ability to create confusion at the line of scrimmage becomes even more valuable in a neutral environment.

Mississippi State's defensive front will want to dictate tempo and keep Wake in obvious passing situations. But the Demon Deacons have seen physical fronts before in ACC play - Clemson and NC State both tried to bully them with limited success. Look for Wake to use tempo and misdirection to neutralize the size advantage. The over looks good in a game where both teams should move the ball.

This is the marquee matchup of the day, and for good reason. Arizona rolls into San Diego with the No. 4 pass defense in the entire country - a suffocating secondary that has made life miserable for quarterbacks all season. SMU, meanwhile, just completed a stunning first year in the ACC, knocking off both Miami and Clemson along the way.

The Wildcats are ranked 17th for a reason. Brent Brennan has built something special in Tucson, and this defense is the foundation. They don't just cover receivers - they take away half the field and force quarterbacks into tight windows. SMU's passing attack has been electric, but they haven't faced a secondary this talented all season.

Here's where it gets tricky: SMU's offense is predicated on timing and rhythm. Arizona's ability to disrupt that timing with press coverage could completely derail the Mustangs' game plan. But if SMU's offensive line can give their quarterback time, there will be opportunities down the field. This one comes down to the trenches. Arizona's defense makes enough plays to cover, but the under looks like the smart play with that elite pass defense on the field.