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San Francisco 49ers (8-4) at Cleveland Browns (3-8)
Sunday 1:00 PM ET | CBS | Cleveland | SF -5.5 | O/U 35.5
Here's the thing about this matchup - you've got a classic case of an elite offense traveling into a potential disaster scenario. Brock Purdy just returned from a 6-game absence due to turf toe, and in his comeback game against Arizona he looked sharp going 19/26 for 200 yards with 3 touchdowns. The Niners are 5-2 on the road this year and this is their best 8-4 start since the Super Bowl-losing 2023 season. Christian McCaffrey had himself a game last week with 2 rushing TDs and a receiving score.
The Myles Garrett Factor
Look, we need to talk about what Myles Garrett is doing this season because it's absolutely historic. The man has 18 sacks through 11 games - that's a franchise record and he's on pace to shatter the NFL single-season record of 22.5. He dropped 5 sacks on New England alone, another franchise record. He's got 26 tackles for loss, the most by any player in their first 11 games since 2000. Garrett has more sacks than Carolina, Cincinnati, and San Francisco combined. Purdy better have eyes in the back of his head.
WEATHER ALERT: This is projected to be the worst weather game of Week 13 with rain and 26-mph wind gusts expected. That 35.5 total looks high given the conditions. The under has been money in these situations.
The Verdict
Cleveland snapped a 5-game losing streak last week and Garrett is playing like a man possessed. But San Francisco's offensive line has been solid, and Purdy looked fresh in his return. The weather concerns me here - those conditions favor the home team and could keep this low-scoring. I'm leaning under 35.5 as the best play, with the Browns keeping it close but not covering.
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Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4) at Tennessee Titans (1-10)
Sunday 1:00 PM ET | CBS | Nashville | JAX -5.5 | O/U 41.5
Jacksonville is having their best season in recent memory at 7-4, their best start since going 8-3 in 2023. First-year coach Liam Coen has this team playing inspired football, and they're tied with the Bills and Chargers for the No. 5 AFC seed. Trevor Lawrence has thrown for 2,407 yards with 14 touchdowns, though he's been inconsistent - last week he went 18/30 for 256 yards with 3 TDs but also threw 3 picks. The big story? Kicker Cam Little set the NFL record with a 68-yard field goal, breaking Justin Tucker's 66-yard mark.
Tennessee's Nightmare Season
The Titans are 1-10, their worst start since 1994 when they were still the Houston Oilers. Brian Callahan was fired after starting 1-5 and interim coach Mike McCoy has gone 0-5. They've scored just 167 points all season (15.2 per game, 30th in NFL) and allowed 303 (27.5 per game, 29th). Rookie QB Cam Ward, the 2025 first overall pick from Miami, is taking his lumps. And it got worse - WR Calvin Ridley is out for the season with a broken right leg.
The Verdict
This feels like a get-right spot for Jacksonville after the Lawrence interception fest. Tennessee has nothing to play for and is decimated by injuries. The 5.5 feels about right - I expect the Jags to win by a touchdown but Tennessee's been competitive at times despite the record. Jacksonville should cover, but I wouldn't lay heavy.
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Houston Texans (6-5) at Indianapolis Colts (8-3)
Sunday 1:00 PM ET | CBS | Indianapolis | IND -3 | O/U 44.5
This is massive for AFC South positioning. The Colts lead the division at 8-3 and Houston desperately needs this one after sitting at 6-5. The huge news? C.J. Stroud has finally been cleared from concussion protocol and will start after missing 3 games. He was concussed Week 9 against Denver and spent over 22 days dealing with symptoms. Here's the wild part - backup Davis Mills went 3-0 in his absence, including a game-winning TD run against Jacksonville. Mills put up 879 yards, 5 TDs, and just 1 INT filling in.
Colts Offensive Machine
Indianapolis is averaging 397.8 yards per game, second-best in the NFL. They're fourth in rushing at 138.8 yards per game and fifth in passing at 259.0. TE Tyler Warren has been a revelation with 55 catches for 662 yards and 3 TDs - that's third among all tight ends. The defense has been stout too. Their main concern is injuries - Anthony Richardson is on IR with an orbital fracture and DeForest Buckner is out with a neck issue.
BETTING TREND: The over has hit in only 6 of Houston's last 21 games. These AFC South battles tend to be grind-it-out affairs. The 44.5 feels inflated given both teams' defensive capabilities.
The Verdict
Getting Stroud back is huge, but he might have some rust. The Colts are rolling at home and that offense is legit. I like Indianapolis to cover the 3, and the under looks solid here given the divisional intensity and Houston's recent scoring trends.
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New Orleans Saints (2-9) at Miami Dolphins (4-7)
Sunday 1:00 PM ET | FOX | Miami | MIA -5.5 | O/U 42.5
Two teams that had high expectations are struggling mightily. New Orleans is 2-9, their worst start since 1999, under first-year coach Kellen Moore. They've scored just 165 points on the season (15.0 per game, 31st) and the quarterback situation has been a mess with Spencer Rattler and Tyler Shough splitting time. The really bad news? Alvin Kamara sprained his MCL and missed the second half last week. Chris Olave leads the receiving corps with 734 yards but this offense has no rhythm.
Miami's Lost Season
The Dolphins fired GM Chris Grier on Halloween and named Champ Kelly as interim. At 4-7, they're fighting for relevance. The biggest blow? Tyreek Hill is done for the year with an ACL injury suffered in Week 4. That completely changed this team's identity. Jaylen Waddle has stepped up as WR1 with 49 catches for 722 yards and 5 TDs, but he's dealing with a foot injury. Miami's averaging just 201.5 passing yards per game (27th in NFL).
The Verdict
Neither team inspires confidence, but Miami at home should be able to handle a Saints team missing their best player. The 5.5 is a lot for this caliber of game though. I'd lean Dolphins to win but maybe look at the under or taking the points.
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Atlanta Falcons (4-7) at New York Jets (2-9)
Sunday 1:00 PM ET | FOX | MetLife Stadium | ATL -3 | O/U 37.5
Talk about a depressing matchup. Both teams came into 2025 with playoff aspirations and both are absolute disasters. Atlanta has been decimated by injuries - QB Michael Penix Jr. is out for the season after ACL reconstruction surgery. Drake London is out with a PCL injury. Multiple starters are on IR. The one bright spot? Bijan Robinson went absolutely nuclear last week with 170 rushing yards against Buffalo including an 81-yard TD run. He finished with 238 total yards from scrimmage, a career-high.
Jets Dysfunction
New York is 2-9 under Aaron Glenn and the injury list is comical. Braelon Allen is out 8-12 weeks with a knee issue. They've got players on IR for pectoral, ankle, hip, triceps, and hamstring injuries. The offense has produced just 22 touchdowns all season (7 rush, 12 pass, 2 returns) and they're converting just 36.6% of third downs. The 37.5 total tells you everything about how ugly this game could be.
The Verdict
Robinson is a one-man wrecking crew and the Jets have no answer for him. Atlanta should win this one, but it's going to be ugly. The under 37.5 looks like the smart play here - neither offense can sustain drives consistently.
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Arizona Cardinals (3-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5)
Sunday 1:00 PM ET | FOX | Tampa | TB -3.5 | O/U 44.5
Arizona has had one of the most injury-plagued seasons imaginable. James Conner is done for the year after a gruesome ankle injury in Week 3. Kyler Murray is dealing with a foot issue and might not go. Marvin Harrison Jr. has battled appendicitis and a concussion. Zay Jones tore his Achilles. They started 2-0 and have lost 5 straight - becoming the first team in NFL history to lose 3 consecutive games after leading by 7+ entering the 4th quarter.
Buccaneers Lead NFC South
Tampa Bay sits atop the NFC South at 6-5 under Todd Bowles. They're scoring 23.5 points per game (14th) and averaging 335.5 total yards. The offensive line has held up well and the running game is clicking at 111.2 yards per game. If Kyler doesn't play, Jacoby Brissett will start for Arizona - he's actually been solid with a 67% completion rate and 10:3 TD:INT ratio in 5 starts.
The Verdict
Tampa at home should handle this one. Arizona is too banged up to compete effectively, and even Brissett's competent play won't be enough against a playoff-hungry Bucs squad. Tampa -3.5 is the play.
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Los Angeles Rams (9-2) at Carolina Panthers (6-6)
Sunday 1:00 PM ET | FOX | Charlotte | LAR -10.5 | O/U 44.5
The Rams are rolling, folks. They've won 6 straight games and lead the NFC West at 9-2. Here's the ridiculous stat - they're allowing just 16.3 points per game, best in the entire NFL. They're scoring 27.8 per game (6th) and their offense is clicking at 367.3 yards per game. Sean McVay has this team firing on all cylinders. They've also had incredible injury luck - way below the league average in games missed on IR.
Carolina's Surprising Season
The Panthers are actually 6-6, their best start since 2018 and the first time they've been at or above .500 (they were 4-3 at one point) since 2021. Bryce Young has thrown for 2,131 yards and Rico Dowdle leads the rushing attack with 871 yards. They beat the Falcons in OT last week. But let's be real - there's a significant talent gap here.
The Verdict
The 10.5 is steep, but the Rams defense is suffocating and LA is on a mission. SportsLine AI rated this as an A+ spread pick on the Rams. I'm with them - this one could get ugly. Rams cover.
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Minnesota Vikings (4-7) at Seattle Seahawks (8-3)
Sunday 4:05 PM ET | FOX | Seattle | SEA -5.5 | O/U 41.5
This one has a fascinating storyline. Sam Darnold signed with Seattle in the offseason for 3 years and $100.5 million after leading the Vikings to a 14-3 record last year and earning a Pro Bowl nod. Minnesota committed to J.J. McCarthy instead, and that decision is looking questionable. McCarthy is out with a concussion, so Max Brosmer will start. McCarthy has struggled when healthy with a 54.1% completion rate, 6 TDs, and 10 INTs in 6 starts.
Seattle's Resurgence
The Seahawks are 8-3 and averaging 29.5 points per game, second-best in the NFL. Darnold has 2,785 yards, 19 TDs, and a 69.5% completion rate. Their defense is allowing just 19.7 PPG (7th). Mike Macdonald has this team playing inspired football on both sides of the ball. They're an incredible 8-3 ATS, the best cover rate in the league.
The Verdict
Seattle is the better team and Darnold will be fired up against his old squad. With McCarthy out and Minnesota's season in shambles, the Seahawks should roll. Take Seattle -5.5 and feel good about it.
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Buffalo Bills (7-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)
Sunday 4:25 PM ET | CBS | Pittsburgh | BUF -3 | O/U 45.5
75
Allen Rush TDs (Career)
Josh Allen is putting together another MVP-caliber season. He's thrown for 2,709 yards with 18 TDs and 9 INTs, but it's his rushing that's been otherworldly. Allen has 284 rushing yards (2nd among QBs) and 4 rushing TDs. Last week he threw 3 TDs AND rushed for 3 more - only the third such game in NFL history. He just surpassed Thurman Thomas for most rush TDs in Bills history (65) and tied Cam Newton for most QB rush TDs ever (75).
Steelers Holding Steady
Pittsburgh leads the AFC North at 6-5 under Mike Tomlin. The offense has been average - 304.3 yards per game (28th) and just 97.1 rushing yards (27th). Russell Wilson left for the Giants in the offseason. The good news? Alex Highsmith is trending toward returning from a pectoral injury and he's got 5.5 sacks in 7 games. The defense keeps them in every game.
INJURY CONCERN: Buffalo is banged up on the O-line with LT Dion Dawkins (concussion) and RT Spencer Brown (shoulder) both out. That could be an issue against Pittsburgh's pass rush. Weather is 42 degrees with 56% chance of rain.
The Verdict
This is a tough one. Buffalo has more firepower but the offensive line injuries are concerning, and Pittsburgh always plays tough at home. I'm taking the points with the Steelers here - Tomlin doesn't get blown out.
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Las Vegas Raiders (2-9) at Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)
Sunday 4:25 PM ET | CBS | Los Angeles | LAC -9.5 | O/U 40.5
Las Vegas is a disaster at 2-9 under first-year coach Pete Carroll. They fired OC Chip Kelly last week and have scored just 165 points all season (15.0 per game, dead last). Geno Smith has thrown for 2,367 yards and rookie Ashton Jeanty has 604 rushing yards, but this offense can't move the chains. They haven't swept the Chiefs in 13 years and just got their first win in New England since 1994.
Chargers Finding Their Rhythm
Jim Harbaugh has LA at 7-4 and they're averaging 22.4 PPG while allowing just 21.6. Justin Herbert has 2,691 yards, 19 TDs, and 9 INTs with a 60.4 QBR. He ranks 3rd in PFF grade vs zone coverage and 6th off play action. The defense has been the story - they're physical and disciplined. The 9.5 spread is massive though.
The Verdict
The Chargers should win comfortably, but 9.5 is a lot to lay against any NFL team. Las Vegas has shown some fight at times. I'd take the Chargers straight up but pass on the spread or look at the under.
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Denver Broncos (9-2) at Washington Commanders (3-8) - SNF
Sunday 8:20 PM ET | NBC | Washington | DEN -6.5 | O/U 43.5
Denver is on an absolute tear - 8 straight wins and sitting as the 2 seed in the AFC behind only the Patriots (10-2). Sean Payton has this defense playing lights out, allowing just 17.5 PPG (3rd in NFL) and 274.4 total yards per game. The offense has churned out 3,688 yards with a balanced attack. The knock? They've committed a league-high 93 penalties for 883 yards and they're minus-3 in turnover ratio.
Washington's Brutal Stretch
The Commanders are in shambles at 3-8 and the injury news gets worse. Jayden Daniels is ruled OUT with his elbow injury and won't return until at least Week 14 against Minnesota. When healthy, Daniels was electric - 1,184 yards, 8 TDs, 262 rush yards in just 6 games. He's the first QB to rush for 1,000+ yards in his first 20 career games. But the defense has been decimated - they're missing Lattimore, Jackson, Armstrong, Ekeler (Achilles, out for season), and more.
BETTING NOTE: Denver is just 5-5-1 ATS despite their 9-2 record. The line here feels appropriate. Reigning DPOY Patrick Surtain is trending toward playing after a pectoral issue. Weather shows 42% chance of rain.
The Verdict
Without Daniels, Washington has no chance to keep pace with Denver's defense. The Broncos are peaking at the right time and face a shell of the team that started 3-2. Take Denver -6.5 with confidence - this could be a blowout.