VS
New York Giants (2-10) @ New England Patriots (10-2)
The Super Bowl Rematch Nobody Expected
Look, I know what you're thinking. The Giants are 2-10. The Patriots are on a nine-game winning streak and sitting at 10-2. This should be a layup for New England, right? Here's the thing though. These two franchises have history that defies regular season records. The Giants are 2-0 against the Patriots in Super Bowls, including that legendary 17-14 upset in Super Bowl XLII that ended New England's perfect season. Sometimes, ghosts matter.
But let's be real here. These aren't those Giants. This is a team that's won twice all season, sitting in the NFC East basement with nothing to play for except pride. Meanwhile, Mike Vrabel has transformed this Patriots team into legitimate contenders. They're 6-0 on the road this season, and Drake Maye is playing at an MVP level that has the entire league taking notice.
Drake Maye: The MVP Front-Runner
This kid is special. Drake Maye has thrown for 3,130 yards with 21 touchdowns against just 6 interceptions. His completion percentage ranks second in the entire NFL behind only Jared Goff. The second-year quarterback has posted a 100+ passer rating in seven consecutive games and is now the MVP favorite after Matthew Stafford's recent struggles. When you watch this Patriots offense, you're seeing a generational talent emerge in real time.
What makes Maye so dangerous is his dual-threat ability. He's not just a pocket passer. He can extend plays with his legs and has combined for over 3,600 yards passing and rushing this season. Against a Giants defense that ranks dead last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed, this is a nightmare matchup for New York.
Jaxson Dart: The Rookie Gets Another Shot
The Giants will start rookie Jaxson Dart, who just cleared concussion protocol after getting knocked out in the third quarter against Chicago. Dart has actually shown flashes of brilliance in his limited action. He's thrown for 1,417 yards with 10 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions, while adding 317 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns on the ground. The kid is the first quarterback in NFL history to rush for a touchdown in five consecutive games.
Here's what concerns me for the Giants though. Dart is coming off a head injury and stepping into a hostile Gillette Stadium environment on Monday Night Football against the best team in football. That's a brutal spot for any quarterback, let alone a rookie making just his eighth career start.
Key Injuries to Watch
The Patriots will be without starting left tackle Will Campbell, who's dealing with a sprained MCL. Left guard Jared Wilson is also out. That's concerning when you're trying to protect your franchise quarterback. Harold Landry III, who leads the team with 6.5 sacks and 16 QB hits, is questionable with a knee injury.
For the Giants, the bigger story is who might actually play. All-Pro defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence is questionable with neck and elbow injuries after missing practice. If Lawrence can't go, the Giants lose their best interior pass rusher. Kayvon Thibodeaux is already ruled out with a shoulder injury, meaning the Giants' pass rush depth is severely compromised.
The Betting Angle
Here's where it gets interesting. The Patriots are 7-5 against the spread this season, but they have NOT covered when favored by 7.5 or more points in two opportunities. Meanwhile, the Giants are 4-1 ATS in games where they're at least 7.5-point underdogs. Even more compelling, the Giants are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against New England.
The total opened at 47.5 and has dropped to 46.5. The OVER has hit in six of the Giants' last seven games overall, which suggests there could be some scoring in this one despite what the line movement indicates.
The Verdict
This is a classic public betting spot. Everyone wants to lay the points with the dominant Patriots against the hapless Giants. And honestly? New England probably wins this game comfortably. But covering 7.5 points on the road in a Monday Night Football rivalry game is never a gimme. The Giants have historically given the Patriots problems, Jaxson Dart has shown he can move the football, and New England's offensive line depth is suddenly a concern.
I lean toward the Patriots winning but the Giants covering the spread. The total is a coin flip, but I'd lean UNDER given the defensive intensity that tends to show up in these primetime rivalry games.