Penn State @ #2 Michigan
Thursday, 6:30 PM ET | Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI
This is about as lopsided as Big Ten matchups get in February, and the 27.5-point spread tells the entire story before tipoff. Michigan sits at 20-1 overall and 10-1 in conference play, firmly entrenched at No. 2 in the AP Poll behind unanimous No. 1 Arizona. Dusty May's second season in Ann Arbor has been nothing short of remarkable, with the Wolverines boasting a KenPom rating of 5th nationally, an offensive efficiency of 118.6 (7th), and a defensive efficiency of 92.6 (21st). They're one of the most complete teams in the country, and their only loss came in a tightly contested affair early in the year. Michigan knocked off rival Michigan State 83-71 last Friday, and the Crisler Center has been a house of horrors for visitors with a 10-1 home record this season.
The Wolverines have been powered by an elite transfer class that has meshed beautifully under May's system. Yaxel Lendeborg, who arrived from UAB, has been sensational all season, and Morez Johnson Jr. is averaging 14.2 points per game as the team's second-leading scorer. Elliot Cadeau, the former North Carolina point guard, is running the show with precision, while 7'3" Aday Mara from UCLA provides a rim-protecting presence that alters every shot in the paint. Michigan is 5-0 against ranked teams this season, a stat that speaks to their ability to elevate in marquee moments. KenPom projects a final regular season record of 28-3, and at this rate, even that feels conservative.
Penn State, meanwhile, is living through a brutal Big Ten campaign. The Nittany Lions are 10-12 overall and just got their first conference win on February 1 against Minnesota, snapping an eight-game losing streak. Freddie Dilione V poured in 25 points and Kayden Mingo hit the game-winner with one second left in that 77-75 thriller, giving Mike Rhoades' squad a desperately needed confidence boost. But traveling to Crisler Center to face the second-ranked team in the nation is a different planet. Penn State is 1-5 on the road this season and has been outscored by an average of 14.7 points in their conference losses. The talent gap here is enormous, and while the Nittany Lions will compete hard, the question isn't whether Michigan wins, it's whether they cover a spread that's pushing four touchdowns.
The 163.5 total reflects Michigan's high-powered offense paired with their ability to generate easy baskets in transition. The Wolverines consistently put up scores in the mid-80s and should have no trouble putting up numbers against a Penn State defense that ranks in the bottom half of the Big Ten. Michigan's depth is another factor here, as May can go 10 deep without a significant drop-off, meaning the Wolverines will keep their foot on the gas even after the starters sit. This one could get ugly in a hurry.