NCAAB February 4, 2026

The Gonzaga Bulldogs continue their dominance of the West Coast Conference, entering this matchup at 22-1 overall and a perfect 10-0 in league play. Mark Few's 25th season at the helm has produced yet another elite squad, with the Bulldogs' lone loss coming against No. 2 Michigan in what amounted to a clash of titans. Otherwise, Gonzaga has steamrolled through a schedule that includes victories over Alabama, Kentucky, Creighton, Maryland, UCLA, and Oregon. This is a team built for March, and the KenPom ranking of 5th nationally reflects their balanced excellence.

Graham Ike has been the catalyst all season, averaging a team-leading 18.7 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. The four-time WCC Player of the Week brings a physical interior presence that most mid-major opponents simply can't match. When Ike gets going in the post, it opens up the perimeter for Gonzaga's shooters, creating the kind of inside-out attack that's nearly impossible to defend consistently. The Bulldogs shoot the ball exceptionally well and move it even better, creating open looks through patient, intelligent offensive execution.

Portland comes in at 10-14 overall and 3-8 in WCC play, facing the unenviable task of trying to snap a 20-game losing streak against the Bulldogs. The last time Portland beat Gonzaga feels like ancient history at this point. In their most recent meeting last January, the Bulldogs rolled 105-62 in Portland, and there's little evidence to suggest this matchup will unfold any differently. The Pilots have some competitive pieces, but the talent gap between these programs is simply too wide to overcome.

The massive 22.5-point spread reflects the stark reality of this matchup, and the -5000 moneyline means there's effectively no value on the Bulldogs straight up. The 156.5 total suggests oddsmakers expect Gonzaga to push the pace and score freely, which tracks with how they've approached WCC play all season. For Few's squad, this is about maintaining momentum and avoiding any slip-ups before the conference tournament and March Madness. Expect the starters to get limited second-half minutes if this game follows the expected script.

Michigan State enters this road contest looking to bounce back after their seven-game winning streak was snapped in a heated rivalry loss to Michigan. The Spartans dropped a hard-fought battle against their in-state rivals, and Tom Izzo's squad will need to channel their frustration into a focused road performance. At 19-3 overall and 9-2 in Big Ten play, Michigan State remains firmly in the conference title hunt, and they simply can't afford to let a disappointment snowball into a losing streak. Williams Arena is a challenging venue, but the Spartans have the talent and experience to handle business.

The numbers tell the story of why Michigan State is such a tough out. The Spartans are the second-best rebounding team in the nation at plus-13 on the glass, creating countless second-chance opportunities and limiting opponents to one shot per possession. Defensively, they allow just 64.4 points per game, ranking 12th nationally in scoring defense. That combination of physicality and defensive discipline makes them particularly well-suited for road games in the Big Ten, where grinding out wins often matters more than offensive fireworks.

Minnesota has endured a brutal stretch, losing six straight games after a promising 3-1 start to Big Ten play that included wins over Indiana, Northwestern, and Iowa. The Golden Gophers have fallen to 10-12 overall and 3-8 in conference, and the losing streak has sapped whatever early-season momentum they had built. Playing at home against a ranked opponent represents an opportunity to salvage a disappointing conference campaign, but the Gophers will need their best performance of the year to pull off what would qualify as a significant upset.

The 8.5-point spread reflects Michigan State's clear superiority while accounting for home-court advantage at Williams Arena. The Spartans have won all 13 games this season when favored by -339 or shorter on the moneyline, demonstrating their ability to close out games they should win. The 132.5 total is notably low, suggesting a grinding, defensive-oriented contest more than an offensive showcase. Given Michigan State's rebounding dominance and Minnesota's recent struggles, expect the Spartans to control the tempo and grind out a comfortable double-digit victory.

BYU is looking to right the ship after a rough stretch against the Big 12's elite. The Cougars started the season 13-0, looking like legitimate national title contenders, but have since dropped games to Texas Tech, Arizona, and Kansas. At 17-4 overall, they remain in excellent position for tournament seeding, but the recent losses have exposed some vulnerabilities that need addressing before March arrives. This Quad 1 road game at Oklahoma State represents an opportunity to get back on track against a quality opponent, even if the Cowboys haven't quite reached that elite tier themselves.

Richie Saunders has been carrying the offensive load for BYU, averaging 19.5 points per game and showing the ability to explode when needed. His 33-point outburst against Kansas this past Saturday demonstrated that even in defeat, the Cougars have a player capable of matching any scorer in the country. When Saunders is cooking, BYU's offense becomes extremely difficult to stop, and his ability to create his own shot in crunch time gives them a closer that many teams lack. KenPom gives BYU a 69% chance to win with a projected final score of 87-82, suggesting a close but ultimately comfortable Cougar victory.

Oklahoma State at 15-6 overall has improved significantly from last season, posting quality non-conference wins that have them ranked 57th in KenPom and 68th in NET. However, the Cowboys are 3-5 in Big 12 play and haven't secured a Quad 1 victory yet, leaving them on the bubble periphery. Anthony Roy has been their primary weapon, averaging 17.5 points per game while shooting 44.4% from three-point range. Gallagher-Iba Arena remains one of the more intimidating environments in the conference, and the Cowboys will be desperate to protect their home floor against a ranked opponent.

The 14.5-point spread feels substantial for a road game against a respectable Big 12 opponent, but ESPN BPI gives BYU an 89% win probability. The 169.5 total is the highest on tonight's board, reflecting both teams' offensive capabilities and suggesting this could turn into a track meet. BYU's four Quad 1 wins show they can handle big moments, and their most recent Q1 victory came against Clemson back on December 9. With both teams needing this win for resume purposes, expect an intense, high-scoring affair in Stillwater.

Clemson's West Coast road trip carries significant ACC title implications as the Tigers try to stay within striking distance of Duke in the conference standings. At 18-4 overall and 8-1 in ACC play, Brad Brownell's squad has emerged as a legitimate contender in what has become a two-horse race at the top of the conference. The Tigers are 15th nationally in points allowed at just 64.5 per game, and that defensive identity has been the foundation of their success. They're coming off a grinding 63-52 home victory over Pittsburgh that showcased their ability to win ugly when the shots aren't falling.

Stanford finds itself in a much different situation, desperately trying to keep NCAA Tournament hopes alive after losing four straight games. The Cardinal have fallen at home to Duke and California before dropping road contests at Miami and Florida State, and at 14-8 overall with a 9-5 home record, they're running out of runway. Ebuka Okorie has been sensational, averaging 21.8 points per game along with 3.3 assists and 1.5 steals, but one player can only do so much. His 26-point effort in the recent 88-80 loss to Florida State wasn't enough to snap the skid.

The stakes couldn't be more different for these programs. For Clemson, maintaining their position in the ACC race is paramount, especially with four of their next five games on the road. How they handle this West Coast swing could determine whether they're legitimate conference title contenders or simply a solid tournament team. For Stanford, this is approaching must-win territory. Late-season momentum is critical for bubble teams, and protecting home court against a ranked opponent could be the spark that turns their season around.

The 135.5 total reflects Clemson's defensive prowess, as the Tigers have the ability to slow games down and force opponents into uncomfortable possessions. Shooting 33.9% from three isn't elite, but their 73.1% free throw percentage gives them a path to late-game success. Stanford's offensive averages (75.9 PPG) look impressive, but they've struggled to find consistency during their losing streak. Expect a physical, grind-it-out affair that plays to Clemson's strengths, though the late West Coast tip and Stanford's desperation add intrigue to the number.

Louisville has been one of the feel-good stories of the ACC season, living up to their preseason billing as the second-best team in the conference behind Duke. The Cardinals erased a 12-point deficit at home against SMU recently to roar back for an impressive 88-74 victory, demonstrating the resilience and firepower that has defined their campaign. At 15-6 overall, they've established the KFC Yum! Center as a fortress, posting an 18-2 record at home over their last 20 games. That home dominance will be critical against a Notre Dame team looking to play spoiler.

Ryan Conwell has been the engine driving Louisville's offense, averaging 19.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 2.6 assists per game. His ability to score at all three levels makes him a nightmare matchup, and when he's clicking, the Cardinals become extremely difficult to defend. Louisville's recent trends favor them heavily in this spot, going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Wednesday games while the total has gone under in 6 of their last 8 home contests. The Cardinals know how to protect their floor and grind out wins when necessary.

Notre Dame has struggled mightily, going 1-7 SU in their last 8 games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7. The Fighting Irish have lost their way at the worst possible time, and their road woes have been particularly concerning. They're 2-8 SU in their last 10 Wednesday road games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 February games. Markus Burton continues to carry the load with 19.9 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game, but one player can only do so much when the supporting cast isn't pulling its weight.

The head-to-head history adds intrigue to this matchup. Notre Dame is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against Louisville, including two straight wins at the Yum! Center where they haven't lost since 2021. However, Louisville won last season's lone meeting 75-60 at Purcell Pavilion, snapping that Irish streak. The total has gone under in 6 of Louisville's last 8 games against Notre Dame, suggesting these teams tend to play tight, defensive-minded contests. With Louisville's home dominance and Notre Dame's current struggles, expect the Cardinals to reassert control in this rivalry.

Virginia has quietly put together an exceptional season at 18-3 overall and 7-2 in ACC play, establishing themselves as a legitimate contender in the conference race. Tony Bennett's packline defense remains the foundation of everything they do, creating the kind of suffocating half-court environment that makes opponents work for every bucket. John Paul Jones Arena has been a house of horrors for visitors, and the Cavaliers' methodical, tempo-controlling approach translates particularly well at home where they can dictate the pace from the opening tip.

Pittsburgh arrives in Charlottesville on a steep slide, having lost 13 of their last 14 away games and 13 of their last 14 games overall in NCAA play. At 9-13 overall and 2-7 in ACC, the Panthers are playing out the string on a disappointing season that has seen them struggle mightily away from the Petersen Events Center. Their first-half struggles have been particularly alarming, losing the opening 20 minutes in 13 of their last 14 road contests. When you're constantly playing from behind against quality opponents, the mountain becomes nearly impossible to climb.

The Cavaliers have covered 12 times in 21 matchups with a spread this season, demonstrating their ability to handle business against inferior opponents. Virginia's 94% implied win probability based on the moneyline (-950) reflects just how lopsided this matchup appears on paper. The 141.5 total accounts for Virginia's deliberate pace, which consistently keeps games in the low-scoring range. Pittsburgh's 10-12 mark against the spread this year suggests they've had trouble covering even when expectations are modest.

Dimers projects Virginia to win 78-64, which would put the game right around the total. The key for the Cavaliers will be avoiding any slow starts that could give Pittsburgh false hope and a confidence boost. With their defensive identity intact and home court providing an additional advantage, expect Virginia to control this game from start to finish. The 12.5-point spread is substantial, but Pittsburgh's recent road struggles and Virginia's home dominance suggest the Cavaliers should cover comfortably if they play anywhere close to their potential.