NCAAB January 18, 2026

This AAC matchup features two teams heading in opposite directions. Tulane has won four of their last five games and looks like a legitimate NCAA Tournament bubble team with their 11-6 record. The Green Wave have been particularly strong at Devlin Fieldhouse, where they've gone 7-1 this season. Their balanced attack averages 76.4 points per game, and they've shown the ability to win tight games down the stretch. Jaylen Forbes leads the scoring with 14.2 PPG and has been clutch in close AAC contests.

North Texas enters this game struggling, having lost five of their last seven games. The Mean Green's 9-8 record is misleading since they've been inconsistent against quality opponents all season. On the road, North Texas has been particularly vulnerable, going just 2-5 away from home. Their offense has been the primary concern, averaging only 68.9 points per game while shooting 43.2% from the field. Without a consistent scoring threat, the Mean Green often fall into offensive droughts that doom them in close games.

The 1.5-point spread reflects the home-court advantage more than a significant talent gap. However, Tulane's superior depth and experience in tight games should prove decisive. The Green Wave defend the three-point line well (opponents shoot 31.4% from deep), which will force North Texas into contested mid-range attempts. With Tulane's momentum and home cooking, expect the Green Wave to cover this small number. The total at 134.5 is reasonable given both teams' pace and defensive capabilities, with a slight lean toward the under given North Texas's offensive limitations on the road.

The 14th-ranked Memphis Tigers are massive favorites at home against the UTSA Roadrunners, and for good reason. Memphis has been one of the most impressive teams in the country, boasting a 14-3 record with their only losses coming against elite competition. At FedExForum, the Tigers have been nearly unstoppable with an 8-1 home record. The atmosphere in Memphis is electric, and opposing teams routinely struggle with the energy and intensity Penny Hardaway's squad brings every night. PJ Haggerty has been sensational, averaging 21.8 points per game while shooting 46% from the field.

UTSA finds themselves in a brutal spot here. The Roadrunners are 9-8 overall but just 1-5 on the road this season. Their offensive efficiency drops significantly away from home, and they lack the athleticism to compete with Memphis's length and speed. The Tigers rank in the top 25 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency, a combination that makes them particularly dangerous against mid-major opponents. Memphis forces 15.4 turnovers per game and converts those into easy transition points that can turn a close game into a blowout within minutes.

The 21.5-point spread is steep, but Memphis has been covering big numbers consistently. In their last five home games against unranked opponents, the Tigers have won by an average of 24.3 points. UTSA simply doesn't have the horses to hang with a team of this caliber. Expect Memphis to build a double-digit lead by halftime and extend it further in the second half as UTSA's limited roster wears down. The total of 146.5 suggests oddsmakers expect a track meet, which plays into Memphis's preferred tempo. The Tigers want to push pace and overwhelm opponents with waves of athleticism.

The #7 Houston Cougars are on a mission at Fertitta Center, where they've been absolutely dominant with a perfect 9-0 record this season. Kelvin Sampson's program has built an identity around suffocating defense, and the numbers tell the story: Houston ranks 2nd nationally in scoring defense, allowing just 60 points per game. That defensive identity isn't just about effort, it's about structure and execution. Opponents are shooting a dismal 39.1% from the field and an even worse 29.7% from three-point range against the Cougars. When teams walk into Fertitta Center expecting to get clean looks, they leave disappointed.

Houston's only blemish this season came in their second game of the year, a road loss to Tennessee. Since then, they've rattled off 15 consecutive victories, establishing themselves as a legitimate Final Four contender. What makes this team particularly dangerous is their ability to win in different ways. They can grind you into submission with their defense, or they can outscore you when the shots are falling. The Cougars have held opponents to 70+ points just four times all season, and even those games typically ended in comfortable Houston victories. Arizona State, which averages around 74 points per game, will be hard-pressed to approach anything close to that number.

The Sun Devils come into this game at 10-7, sitting in the middle tier of the Big 12's expanded footprint. Arizona State's transition from the Pac-12 has been challenging, and road games against elite programs have exposed their limitations. They simply don't have the defensive personnel to match Houston's physicality, and their offensive efficiency drops significantly against top-25 defenses. The Cougars excel at taking away what opponents do best, forcing teams into uncomfortable shot selection and creating live-ball turnovers that fuel their transition attack.

The 16.5-point spread is substantial, but Houston has been covering comfortably in Big 12 play. The under at 146.5 demands attention given Houston's defensive profile. The Cougars want to play in the 60s, and they have the defensive chops to dictate tempo. ASU will struggle to generate quality looks against Houston's switching schemes and rim protection. With the game at Fertitta Center, where the Cougars have dominated, expect Houston to control this game from start to finish. The only question is whether they cover the inflated number, and their defensive consistency suggests they'll keep ASU in the low-50s while scoring enough to maintain a comfortable margin throughout.