Soccer February 4, 2026

The Basque derby takes center stage at Estadio Mendizorroza, where Deportivo Alaves are chasing history. The hosts have not reached the Copa del Rey semi-finals since the 2003-04 season, and that drought has only intensified their hunger for cup success. Sitting 16th in La Liga with just five wins, four draws, and ten losses, their domestic campaign has been a struggle, but cup football offers a different kind of magic, and Alaves have found their groove when it matters most.

What makes Alaves dangerous is their recent mastery over their Basque rivals. They have won three consecutive matches against Real Sociedad, including a 1-0 La Liga victory at this very ground earlier in the campaign. That psychological edge cannot be understated in knockout football. Vicente Robles has been their standout performer this season with nine goals across all competitions, a remarkable tally for a team that has scored just 16 league goals. His ability to find the net when chances are scarce makes him the man to watch for the hosts.

Real Sociedad present an intriguing puzzle. Unbeaten in their last eight matches across all competitions with four wins during that run, they have found consistency at just the right time. More impressively, La Real are unbeaten in 13 away Copa del Rey matches since losing to Barcelona at this stage in January 2023, winning 11 of those fixtures. That kind of cup pedigree demands respect. Mikel Oyarzabal leads the side with five La Liga goals, while Brais Mendez and Goncalo Guedes have provided creative spark, though their overall output of 24 league goals suggests this is not a free-scoring outfit.

The 1-1 correct score odds at 6.00 feel like a reasonable value play given both teams' tendency to grind out tight results. Both Teams to Score at 2.00 is another intriguing angle, though Alaves' home defensive record (four wins, three draws, three losses) suggests they can keep things tight at Mendizorroza. This has all the makings of a tense, low-scoring affair where one moment of quality could decide everything. The winner advances to face either Valencia or Athletic Club, with a place in the final four at stake.

The defending DFB Pokal champions arrive in northern Germany as heavy favorites, and with good reason. VfB Stuttgart's 4-2 demolition of Arminia Bielefeld in last May's final remains fresh in memory, and Die Roten have shown no signs of letting up their cup intensity this season. Currently fifth in the Bundesliga with an impressive 11-3-5 record, Seb Hoeness's side have lost just one of their last ten matches while recording seven wins. Their away form has been particularly formidable, with four victories in their last five road fixtures and three clean sheets in that span.

Stuttgart's path through this year's DFB Pokal has included some dramatic moments. Their round-of-16 clash against Eintracht Braunschweig finished 4-4 after extra time before Stuttgart prevailed 8-7 in a penalty shootout that will live long in the memory. Since then, they have dispatched Bochum and Mainz with identical 2-0 scorelines, showing they can grind out professional victories when required. The blend of experience from their title defense and the hunger to retain their trophy makes them a formidable opponent for any side in German football.

Holstein Kiel's presence in the quarter-finals is a testament to their cup fighting spirit. The Storche are unbeaten in DFB Pokal regulation time this season, with two wins and one draw through three rounds. However, their 2.Bundesliga form tells a different story. Sitting 12th in the second tier, just two points clear of the relegation zone, they have struggled to recapture the magic that saw them earn promotion to the Bundesliga for the first time in their history last season. That top-flight adventure ended in heartbreak with defeats to Augsburg and Gladbach failing to prevent the drop, and readjusting to second-tier football has been challenging.

Defender David Zec has been Kiel's unlikely hero this season, leading the team with four goals from the backline, twice as many as any other Kiel player. The fact that their top scorer is a center-back tells you everything about their attacking struggles, having not scored more than one goal in a single match since Matchday 6. The Over 2.5 goals market is the most popular betting angle here, and for good reason, as five of the last six meetings between these sides have produced three or more goals. Stuttgart's quality should eventually tell, but Kiel's proud home support and cup pedigree means they won't go quietly into the night.