Soccer January 16, 2026

Here's the head-scratcher of the day: Espanyol enter this Catalan derby as favorites despite having zero wins in their last eight meetings against Girona. That's not a typo. Eight consecutive matches without a victory against their regional rivals, yet the bookmakers still fancy them at home. The market is essentially betting on recent form over historical dominance, and that's a risky proposition in derby atmospheres.

Espanyol (5-1-1 in their last seven La Liga matches) have been quietly solid, grinding out results that have them in a comfortable mid-table position. Milla leads the attack with six La Liga goals this season, and he's priced at 4/1 to score first. Javi Puado offers value at +450 as the market leader for first goalscorer. The home side has found a defensive identity that's allowed them to compete, but can they finally break through against Girona?

Girona's story is one of paradoxes. They've won three of their last four matches, showing genuine quality going forward, yet they've conceded 34 goals in 19 matches, making them the worst defensive team in all of La Liga. That's a staggering number for a team with European aspirations. Tsygankov and Vanat lead the attacking threat, with Vanat priced at 2/1 for an anytime goal.

The under 2.5 goals at -143 implies a 53% probability, which feels about right given Espanyol's defensive improvement at home. However, with Girona leaking goals and Espanyol's attacking form, the BTTS market at -109 offers intriguing value. Model projections give Espanyol a 48.2% win probability against Girona's 26%, with a 25.8% draw chance.

Advanced Trends: Espanyol have failed to win any of their last 8 meetings with Girona. The under 2.5 has hit in 4 of Espanyol's last 6 home matches. Girona have conceded 34 goals in 19 La Liga matches, the worst defensive record in the league. The home team has scored in 11 consecutive La Liga matches at RCDE Stadium. Both teams to score has hit in 5 of Girona's last 7 away matches.

Atalanta are on fire. La Dea have won six of their last seven matches, including a dominant 2-0 victory over Torino that extended their unbeaten run. More impressively, they haven't conceded a goal in their last three matches. That's the kind of defensive solidity that wins championships. Gian Piero Gasperini's side has climbed to seventh in Serie A and looks ready to make a push for European places.

Pisa, meanwhile, are in freefall. The hosts sit in the relegation zone with a shocking 1-9-9 record, having gone nine matches without a win. Their home form has been particularly dire: just one victory all season at Arena Garibaldi while losing six times. When a team is that broken mentally, even motivated performances often end in defeat. They did manage a 1-1 draw at Atalanta earlier this season, but that feels like ancient history now.

Atalanta are missing Ademola Lookman due to AFCON, a significant absence for any team, but their depth has been impressive this season. Sead Kolasinac, Raoul Bellanova, and Mitchel Bakker are also out injured. Pisa have their own injury concerns with Juan Cuadrado, Raul Albiol, Calvin Stengs, and Mateus Lusuardi unavailable, plus veteran defender Antonio Caracciolo suspended.

The -170 on Atalanta implies a 58.8% win probability, which might actually be conservative given Pisa's complete collapse. Three consecutive clean sheets suggest Atalanta are in excellent defensive shape, while Pisa's inability to score or defend makes them easy prey for quality opponents. The Asian handicap line of Atalanta -0.5 at -114 represents solid value.

Advanced Trends: Atalanta have won four of their last five meetings against Pisa. La Dea have kept clean sheets in 3 consecutive matches. Pisa have failed to win in 9 straight matches (1-9-9 record). Atalanta have won 6 of their last 7 matches across all competitions. Pisa have won just once at home all season while losing 6 times. The away team has scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings between these sides.