Soccer January 20-21, 2026

Kylian Mbappe has been waiting for this moment since the summer of 2024. The French superstar, who spent seven glittering years at Monaco before his PSG move, now leads Real Madrid's attack against the club where he first announced himself to the world as an 18-year-old wonderkid. With nine Champions League goals this season, more than any other player in the competition, Mbappe's personal narrative adds an extra layer of intrigue to a match that already carries significant table implications.

Real Madrid's Champions League campaign has been a rollercoaster, which is remarkable for the competition's most decorated club. After three straight wins to open the league phase, including a Mbappe hat-trick in a 5-0 demolition of Kairat and a four-goal performance against Olympiacos, Los Blancos stumbled. A 1-0 defeat at Liverpool and a crushing 2-1 home loss to Manchester City have left them sitting 7th with 12 points, precariously positioned outside the automatic top-8 qualification spots. They can't afford another slip.

Monaco's Dramatic Fall From Grace

The contrast in form couldn't be starker. While Monaco recovered brilliantly from their disastrous 4-1 opening day defeat to Club Brugge, going unbeaten for a stretch that included impressive results, their recent trajectory has been alarming. Les Monegasques have lost four consecutive Ligue 1 matches, dropping to 9th place in the French top flight. Their last three league results read 1-3, 1-3, 1-3, a bizarre sequence that suggests systemic defensive issues rather than bad luck. When a team concedes exactly three goals in three straight matches, something fundamental has broken.

The xG data paints a concerning picture for Monaco's chances at the Bernabeu. Their season average of 1.44 xG per match in Ligue 1 compared to 1.50 xGA tells you this is a team that creates marginally less than it concedes on expected metrics. Against a Real Madrid side featuring Mbappe, Bellingham, and Rodrygo, that defensive fragility will be ruthlessly exposed. Monaco's away form is particularly poor this season with just 2 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses on the road.

Arbeloa's Interim Reign and Rodrygo's Return

Alvaro Arbeloa has taken the interim reins at Real Madrid following the managerial upheaval, and his first priority has been stabilizing a squad that was wobbling. The 2-0 La Liga win over Levante provided some relief, with Mbappe finding the net alongside Raul Asencio. Crucially, Rodrygo is returning from injury, giving Madrid additional firepower on the flanks. The Copa del Rey exit under Arbeloa's watch was disappointing, but Champions League pressure is where this club traditionally rises.

The head-to-head history between these clubs is limited but even, with each side claiming one victory in their two previous meetings. However, context matters enormously here. Real Madrid at the Bernabeu in European competition is a different proposition entirely from neutral or away fixtures. The crowd, the history, the pressure, it all tilts in favor of Los Blancos, especially against a Monaco side that appears to be in freefall domestically.

The Bottom Line

Everything points toward a comfortable Real Madrid victory. Monaco's defensive issues, their four-game losing streak in Ligue 1, their struggles away from home, and their inability to cope with elite attacking talent all suggest this could be a long night for the visitors. Mbappe's history against his former clubs (including his demolition of Monaco while at PSG) adds a personal edge that typically brings out his best. The -1.75 Asian Handicap requiring a two-goal Real Madrid win feels achievable given the gulf in current form. Monaco need a point to stay in knockout playoff contention, but they're unlikely to find it at the Bernabeu.

This is it. The defining test of Arsenal's perfect Champions League campaign. Mikel Arteta's side have been utterly dominant in Europe, winning all six matches while conceding just a single goal across 540 minutes of football. They sit atop the table with 18 points, the only team with a 100% record, with five clean sheets demonstrating a defensive solidity that has become their trademark. But visiting the San Siro to face Serie A leaders Inter Milan represents a quantum leap in difficulty.

Arsenal's away form in the Champions League this season has been impeccable. They've won all three road fixtures without conceding a single goal. The Gunners have also extended their unbeaten run across all competitions to 11 matches, though the 0-0 draw at Nottingham Forest highlighted that they can be stifled by well-organized defenses. Inter, under Cristian Chivu, represent exactly that sort of tactical challenge, a team that knows how to defend deep and strike on the counter.

Inter's Home Vulnerability

Here's the curious thing about Inter this season. They've been utterly dominant domestically, sitting atop Serie A with a six-point cushion over both AC Milan and Napoli. But in the Champions League, they've shown vulnerability. After four consecutive wins to open their European campaign, the Nerazzurri lost 2-1 away at Atletico Madrid and, more concerningly, lost 1-0 at home against Liverpool. That latter result is particularly relevant, Arsenal possess similar qualities to Klopp's well-organized side.

The San Siro hasn't been the fortress Inter would like in Champions League action. Their +0.25 Asian Handicap has been covered in seven consecutive matches across all competitions, but that reflects Serie A dominance more than European prowess. Against top-tier opposition in the Champions League, Inter have struggled to impose their will. The 1-0 Liverpool defeat showed how quickly they can be unpicked by clinical finishing and disciplined pressing.

Arsenal's Italian Curse

There's one statistic that should give Arsenal fans pause. Despite their brilliant Champions League campaign, the Gunners haven't won any of their last five trips to Italy in this competition (D1, L4). That's a troubling historical trend that transcends managers, squads, and eras. Italian teams traditionally defend with a ruthlessness that English sides struggle to break down, and Inter exemplify that approach. Arteta will need to find a way to unlock a defense that has conceded just 14 goals in 19 Serie A matches this season.

Injuries complicate matters for both sides. Inter will be without Hakan Calhanoglu, their midfield metronome, as well as Denzel Dumfries and Tomas Palacios. Arsenal are missing Riccardo Calafiori with Pedro Hincapie questionable. The tactical battle between Chivu and Arteta promises to be fascinating, a chess match between two defensively astute managers who understand that controlling space matters more than controlling possession in these elite-level encounters.

The Bottom Line

This has all the hallmarks of a tactical battle that produces few goals. Arsenal's defensive discipline meets Inter's counter-attacking threat in a matchup where both teams will prioritize not losing over aggressive pursuit of victory. The Gunners' perfect record is genuinely under threat here, but a draw would suit both sides given the stakes. Inter are +0.25 Asian Handicap favorites for a reason, the San Siro is a difficult place to win, but Arsenal's quality and confidence after six consecutive victories shouldn't be underestimated. The BTTS market at -130 offers value given both teams' attacking capabilities, though this could easily finish 1-1 or even 0-0.

The Stade Velodrome is one of European football's great cauldrons, a stadium where the atmosphere alone can unsettle even the most battle-hardened opponents. Liverpool haven't won here since 2004, a drought that spans two decades of unsuccessful visits. But Arne Slot's side arrive in remarkable form, sitting top of the Premier League with a seven-point cushion and positioned 9th in the Champions League standings with 12 points, needing just one more positive result to potentially secure automatic Round of 16 qualification.

Marseille's season has been a tale of two competitions. Domestically, they've shown flashes of brilliance, including a stunning 9-0 Coupe de France victory over Bayeux and a 5-2 demolition of Angers at the weekend. They've scored 14 goals in 2026 alone across all competitions. But their Champions League campaign has been inconsistent, sitting 16th with 9 points from three wins and three defeats. A loss here would leave them sweating on the final matchday to avoid elimination.

Liverpool's Vulnerability on the Road

For all their domestic brilliance, Liverpool's Champions League away form has been less convincing. They've won just one of their three road fixtures in this season's competition, losing twice to teams below them in quality. That's the sort of inconsistency that suggests they can be got at in hostile environments. The 1-1 draw against Burnley in their most recent Premier League outing showed they're not immune to struggles against well-organized opponents who make the pitch uncomfortable.

The xG data from that Burnley match is instructive. Liverpool created 2.85 xG compared to Burnley's 0.37, an enormous disparity that should have resulted in a comfortable win. Instead, they drew 1-1, highlighting an finishing inefficiency that could prove costly in Europe. Against Marseille, who defend with typical French pragmatism and counter-attack with genuine pace, Liverpool will need to be more clinical with their chances.

Marseille's Home Fortress

The Velodrome factor shouldn't be underestimated. Marseille have been strong at home in the Champions League this season, and their passionate support creates an atmosphere that few stadiums in world football can match. The home side's goal-scoring form has been exceptional recently, with five goals against Angers and nine against Bayeux showcasing their attacking potential when they have space to operate. Roberto De Zerbi's system emphasizes quick transitions and direct play, exactly the approach that could trouble Liverpool's high defensive line.

Liverpool's squad depth remains a significant advantage. Even without their full complement of stars, Slot can rotate and maintain quality across the pitch. Mohamed Salah, Darwin Nunez, Luis Diaz, the attacking options are world-class, and Marseille's defense will need to be at its absolute best to contain them. The key question is whether Liverpool can find the balance between controlling possession and creating clear-cut chances against a team that will sit deep and look to hit them on the break.

The Bottom Line

Liverpool are rightly favored, but the -106 moneyline reflects genuine uncertainty about whether they can win in a hostile away environment. Their Champions League away form has been inconsistent, and Marseille at home are a different proposition than Marseille on the road. The BTTS market at -189 feels like the strongest angle here, both teams have shown attacking prowess and defensive vulnerability in recent weeks. Liverpool should get a result that keeps their automatic qualification hopes alive, but expecting a comfortable victory at the Velodrome seems optimistic given the historical context and the atmosphere they'll face.

This is a historic first. Sporting CP and Paris Saint-Germain have never met in official competition, making this Champions League clash a genuine novelty in European football. PSG arrive in Lisbon as one of the competition's most potent attacking forces, having scored 19 goals across six league phase matches including a breathtaking 7-2 demolition of Bayer Leverkusen. Holders of 3rd place with 13 points, they're on course for automatic Round of 16 qualification, but a slip here could complicate their path.

Sporting's home record in this season's Champions League has been flawless. They've won every match at the Jose Alvalade, creating a fortress in the Portuguese capital that even elite opponents have failed to breach. However, their away form tells a different story, with a 3-1 defeat at Bayern Munich in the previous matchday highlighting their vulnerability when removed from home comforts. They sit 14th with 10 points, needing a strong finish to avoid the knockout playoffs.

PSG's 0-0 at Athletic Club: A Warning Sign?

PSG's most recent Champions League outing should give Sporting hope. The Parisians were held to a goalless draw away at Athletic Bilbao, a result that showed they can be frustrated by organized, physical opponents. Luis Enrique's side struggled to break down Athletic's compact defensive block, managing few clear-cut chances despite dominating possession. If Sporting can replicate that tactical discipline at the Jose Alvalade, they have a genuine chance of causing an upset.

That said, PSG's attacking talent remains terrifying. Ousmane Dembele, Bradley Barcola, and the rest of Luis Enrique's front line have shown they can dismantle even the best defenses when given space to operate. The 7-2 win at Leverkusen, one of Europe's best teams, demonstrated their ceiling. The question is which version of PSG shows up in Lisbon, the clinical, devastating attacking unit or the ponderous, possession-dominant side that couldn't find a way through Athletic's resistance.

The Jose Alvalade Factor

Sporting's home record this season is genuinely impressive. They've turned the Jose Alvalade into a fortress, and their supporters create an atmosphere that matches anything in European football. The Lions play with a confidence and aggression at home that they simply can't replicate on the road, a common trait among Portuguese clubs who rely heavily on their passionate fan bases. PSG will face a hostile environment that could negate some of their technical superiority.

The BTTS market at -172 reflects expectations that both teams will find the net. Sporting have shown they can score against anyone at home, while PSG's defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed throughout the season. The Over 2.5 at 1.62 also looks attractive given both teams' attacking philosophies and the high-stakes nature of the fixture. Neither side can afford to sit back, as both need points to secure their knockout phase ambitions.

The Bottom Line

This has all the ingredients for an entertaining, high-scoring affair. PSG's attacking firepower against Sporting's home fortress creates a fascinating tactical battle where both teams will back themselves to score. The BTTS market at -172 looks like strong value, while Sporting's +0.75 Asian Handicap offers protection against a narrow PSG victory. Luis Enrique's side should prevail given their superior squad depth and European experience, but Sporting won't make it easy for them. Expect goals at both ends and a genuinely competitive match in Lisbon.

Two clubs in crisis, level on points, fighting for their Champions League lives. Tottenham and Borussia Dortmund both sit on 11 points after six matches, with Spurs in 11th place and BVB in 10th. Victory here could mean the difference between automatic Round of 16 qualification and the dreaded knockout playoffs. Defeat could be catastrophic, potentially leaving the loser needing a perfect final matchday result to avoid early elimination.

Tottenham's form has fallen off a cliff. They've lost three consecutive matches across all competitions and are winless in their last five. The injury list reads like a medical disaster, with Mickey van de Ven suspended and Ben Davies joining Rodrigo Bentancur, Mohamed Kudus, Richarlison, James Maddison, and Dejan Kulusevski on the treatment table. Ange Postecoglou is working with a skeleton squad at the worst possible time, and the pressure is mounting after a season that promised so much has delivered so little.

Spurs' Injury Crisis

The scale of Tottenham's injury problems is genuinely remarkable. Six first-team players unavailable, with Van de Ven's suspension adding to the defensive nightmare. Postecoglou's preferred high-pressing, front-foot style becomes almost impossible to execute when you're missing half your squad. The goalkeeper is being left exposed, the midfield is threadbare, and the attacking options have been decimated by injuries. It's a perfect storm of bad luck that has derailed what was supposed to be a season of progress.

Against Dortmund, those absences become critical. Serhou Guirassy is one of Europe's most clinical strikers, and BVB's counter-attacking threat is exactly the kind of danger that Spurs' weakened defense will struggle to contain. Without Van de Ven's pace and aerial dominance, Postecoglou may be forced to adopt a more conservative approach than usual, but that goes against everything his team is built to do.

Dortmund's Consistency Edge

Borussia Dortmund have lost just once in this Champions League campaign, showing a consistency that Spurs have lacked. While their Bundesliga form has been inconsistent, BVB traditionally rise to the occasion in European competition. The German side's away record in the Champions League this season (W1-D1-L1) is solid if unspectacular, and they'll fancy their chances against a Tottenham side that looks vulnerable at both ends of the pitch.

The Dortmund midfield, led by players who understand the pressure of knockout football, should be able to control the tempo against Spurs' depleted central options. If BVB can win the midfield battle, they'll create opportunities for Guirassy and the supporting attackers to exploit spaces behind a high Tottenham defensive line that will be missing its best defender.

The Bottom Line

Home advantage and their unbeaten record at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in this competition are the only factors in Spurs' favor. Everything else points toward Dortmund. The injuries, the form, the confidence levels, BVB hold the advantage on paper. The +143 moneyline on Dortmund offers genuine value given the circumstances, while the Draw No Bet at -137 provides protection against the home side stealing a point. This should be an open, entertaining match given both teams' need for three points, with BTTS at -167 and Over 2.5 at 1.80 both looking like solid plays. Dortmund to edge it, but don't be surprised if Spurs' home record proves decisive.