Here's the thing about late-season NHL totals: when two teams are locked into their playoff positioning with nothing left to fight for, you get sloppy, low-event hockey. That's exactly what we're looking at Tuesday night when the Washington Capitals visit the Columbus Blue Jackets at Nationwide Arena. Washington sits at 39-30-9 with 87 points, and Columbus is at 40-29-12 with 92 points. Both clubs are in a holding pattern as the regular season winds down, and the goaltending matchup of Logan Thompson versus Jet Greaves sets up beautifully for a game that stays under 6.5 at -115. This is a two-unit play, and I love the spot.
Logan Thompson Is Having a Legitimate Starting Goalie Season
Thompson has been one of the more underrated stories in the NHL this year. His 31-21-6 record with a 2.44 GAA and .912 save percentage across a full starter's workload tells you everything you need to know about how far he's come since arriving in Washington. Those aren't fluke numbers inflated by a couple of hot weeks. That's a full season of consistent, reliable goaltending that has kept the Capitals competitive in games they had no business being in. A 2.44 GAA means Thompson is allowing fewer than two and a half goals per game on average, and when you project that into a matchup against a Columbus offense that averages just 3.02 goals per game, you're looking at a goaltender who should comfortably keep his side of the ledger at two or three goals.
What makes Thompson particularly dangerous in this spot is the context. This is a meaningless late-season game for Washington. They're not fighting for anything. There's no desperation, no need to press offensively, no reason to take risks. That mentality typically translates into a conservative, defense-first approach where the Capitals are content to sit back, protect the middle of the ice, and let Thompson do his thing. When a team plays in front of their goaltender like that, the shot quality drops significantly. Thompson won't be facing odd-man rushes and breakaways all night. He'll be seeing perimeter shots that he can handle in his sleep. That's the kind of game environment where a .912 save percentage goaltender looks even better than his numbers suggest.
The Blue Jackets Are a 3.02 Goals Per Game Team with a 27th-Ranked Penalty Kill
Columbus has had an interesting season, posting a 40-29-12 record that's better than most people expected. But let's be honest about who this team really is. They score 3.02 goals per game, which is right around league average, and they allow 3.07 goals per game, which is slightly below average defensively. This isn't a juggernaut that's going to blow anyone out. This is a team that wins tight games, grinds out results, and relies on structure more than raw talent. Their penalty kill at 76.1% ranks 27th in the NHL, which is alarming on paper, but it actually works in the under's favor tonight. If Columbus takes penalties, they're giving up power play opportunities to a Capitals team that's just going to run the clock, cycle the puck, and settle for low-danger shots. The Blue Jackets' PK being bad doesn't necessarily mean they'll give up goals. It means they'll spend time shorthanded, which slows the game down and eats clock without producing offense for either side.
Jet Greaves has been solid as the Blue Jackets' primary netminder this season. His 26-18-9 record with a 2.61 GAA and .907 save percentage represents a perfectly capable goaltender who gives his team a chance to win every night. He's not elite, but he's not a liability either. And in this particular spot, playing at home in Nationwide Arena against a Capitals team with nothing to play for, Greaves doesn't need to be elite. He just needs to be steady, stop the routine chances, and let the game play out at a low tempo. A 2.61 GAA goaltender against a team that isn't pressing offensively is a recipe for keeping the puck out of the net on his end, which is half the under equation right there.
The Under Has Been Printing Money in Columbus Lately
The trends here are screaming at us. The under has hit in 8 of the Blue Jackets' last 12 games. That's a 66.7% rate, which is absurd for a total that's set at 6.5. When a team is consistently playing in games that go under, it tells you something about their identity. Columbus doesn't get into shootouts. They don't play run-and-gun hockey. They grind. They defend. They score just enough to win and keep games tight. That pattern doesn't just appear out of nowhere. It's baked into who this team is, how they play, and how their goaltending operates. Eight of twelve is not a fluke. It's a trend that reflects the fundamental nature of how Blue Jackets games play out in this stretch of the season.
Now, I'll acknowledge that the Capitals have gone over in 7 of their last 9 games. That looks scary on the surface if you're an under bettor. But context matters enormously here. Those overs likely came in games where Washington was still fighting for positioning, still had something on the line, still needed to push the pace offensively. That's not the case tonight. When teams shift into end-of-season mode, the entire complexion of how they play changes. Coaches shorten benches, rest key players, limit minutes for guys with nagging injuries, and prioritize staying healthy over winning. That means fewer offensive risks, fewer power play opportunities generated, and a slower pace overall. Washington's recent over trend is a product of a different context than what we're getting tonight, and I'm far more interested in the Columbus under trend, which reflects the home team's identity and the environment this game will be played in.
End-of-Season Games Are Under Gold Mines
This is the part of the NHL calendar that under bettors live for. When both teams have their playoff fates essentially sealed, the intensity drops off a cliff. Nobody wants to get hurt in a meaningless game with two weeks left in the regular season. Nobody wants to burn their top-line center for 22 minutes when the playoffs are right around the corner. The coaching staffs on both sides know this, and they'll manage the game accordingly. You'll see reduced minutes for top players, a heavier rotation through the bottom six, and a general "let's just get through this" mentality that suppresses scoring on both sides.
Washington at 87 points and Columbus at 92 points are both in positions where the outcome of this specific game doesn't meaningfully change their playoff picture. That's the dream scenario for an under bet. Both teams will play a professional, competent brand of hockey, but neither one is going to push the envelope. Thompson and Greaves will both see manageable shot volumes against lineups that aren't playing with urgency. The pace will be deliberate. The neutral zone will be clogged. And when the final horn sounds, we'll be looking at a 2-1 or 3-2 game that cashes our under with room to spare.
At -115, you're laying a tiny bit of juice on a game that has every single indicator pointing toward a low-scoring, controlled affair. Two capable goaltenders, two teams with nothing to prove, a Columbus under trend that's been relentless, and the natural late-season suppression of scoring that happens every single year in the NHL. This is one of the cleanest under spots on the board tonight, and two units is the right call.
The Pick
Washington Capitals vs Columbus Blue Jackets UNDER 6.5 (-115) | 2 Units
