NCAAB January 23, 2026

This is the game of the night, and it's not particularly close. The #3 Michigan Wolverines bring one of the most efficient offenses in the country to Columbus for a Big Ten showdown that has massive conference title implications. Michigan enters this contest as one of just two teams given a 20% implied probability to win the NCAA Tournament by BetMGM futures, placing them alongside Arizona at the very top of the national championship conversation. That's rarefied air, and the Wolverines have earned every bit of that respect with their dominant play this season.

Here's what makes Michigan so terrifying for opponents: they lost their first game of the year on January 10 to Wisconsin 91-88 at home, and it feels like ancient history. That loss could have derailed a season. Instead, the Wolverines have responded exactly how elite programs respond, continuing to play at an incredibly high level and refusing to let one setback define them. The KenPom metrics paint a picture of a complete basketball team. Michigan's AdjO ranks in the top 5 nationally, their AdjD is top 15, and their AdjT suggests they want to push pace and bury teams before they can settle into their preferred style.

Ohio State's Uphill Battle Against Elite Competition

Look, I'm not going to sugarcoat this for Ohio State fans. When you're getting 15.5 points at home against anyone in college basketball, the market is telling you something pretty definitive about the talent gap. The Buckeyes have had moments this season where they've looked capable of competing in the Big Ten, but those moments have been inconsistent at best. Value City Arena will be electric for this one, as it always is when Michigan comes to town, but atmosphere alone doesn't close a 15-point gap against a top-3 team playing at peak efficiency.

The question for Ohio State isn't whether they can win this game outright, as that feels like a long shot given Michigan's quality. The question is whether they can keep this competitive enough to cover that massive spread. Home court advantage in the Big Ten is real, especially in rivalry games where emotion runs high. But Michigan has shown the ability to impose their will on opponents regardless of environment. The Wolverines' defensive intensity and offensive firepower combine to create an almost suffocating experience for opposing teams.

The 162.5 Total and Tempo Considerations

The 162.5 total is interesting because it suggests oddsmakers expect a game played at Michigan's preferred pace. The Wolverines want to push tempo and create transition opportunities, which typically leads to higher-scoring affairs. If Ohio State can slow things down and turn this into a half-court grind, that would benefit their chances both straight up and against the spread. But slowing down Michigan is easier said than done. Their defensive pressure often creates the turnovers that fuel their transition attack.

Michigan's turnover rate on defense is elite, and they convert those extra possessions into points at an alarming rate. For Ohio State to stay in this game, they'll need to value every possession and avoid the live-ball turnovers that get the Wolverines running. The Buckeyes' half-court offense will need to be efficient because they simply won't get as many possessions as they're used to against most Big Ten opponents.

The Bottom Line

This is Michigan's conference to lose, and they know it. The Wolverines have championship aspirations, and road games against Big Ten opponents, even in hostile environments like Value City Arena, are simply checkpoints on that journey. Ohio State will compete, they'll make runs, and the crowd will create some tense moments. But Michigan's talent advantage is significant, their efficiency metrics are elite, and they've shown the mental fortitude to handle adversity after their lone loss to Wisconsin. The 15.5-point spread is massive, but it reflects the reality of this matchup. The total at 162.5 depends entirely on whether Ohio State can dictate pace, and that seems unlikely against Michigan's pressure defense. This is appointment television for any college basketball fan.