NCAAB January 29, 2026

This is what Big 12 dominance looks like. Iowa State comes into Boulder as 17.5-point road favorites, and that number tells you everything about the talent disparity in this conference matchup. The Cyclones at 17-2 (7-1 Big 12) have been one of the most complete teams in college basketball this season, ranking in the top 15 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency according to KenPom. T.J. Otzelberger has built something special in Ames, and his team's ability to defend, share the ball, and close games has made them a legitimate Final Four threat.

Colorado sits at 13-7 (3-5 Big 12) and has found Big 12 play to be exactly as brutal as advertised. Tad Boyle's group has been competitive at home, but facing a team of Iowa State's caliber is a completely different animal. The Buffaloes have struggled to find consistent scoring, and their defense, while improved, will be pushed to its limits against a Cyclones offense that moves the ball beautifully and can hurt you from all three levels. The altitude in Boulder provides some home court advantage, but it's unlikely to overcome an 17.5-point talent differential.

The 152.5 total suggests a moderately-paced contest, which is right in Iowa State's wheelhouse. The Cyclones don't run teams out of the gym with pace; they suffocate you with defense and execute precisely on offense. Colorado's best chance to cover involves slowing the game down further and hoping for some home-shooting magic, but realistically, Iowa State has the defensive versatility to adjust to any style. This spread is large, but it reflects the reality of where these programs stand in the Big 12 hierarchy. Iowa State is simply operating on a different level.

Illinois makes the cross-country trip to Seattle as heavy favorites, and the Fighting Illini at 17-3 (7-2 Big Ten) have been everything Brad Underwood could have hoped for this season. This is a team that combines elite athleticism with improved defensive consistency, and their ball movement has been a revelation compared to previous years. Illinois ranks top 10 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, and they've proven they can win games in multiple ways, whether it's through high-tempo transition basketball or grinding half-court execution.

Washington at 10-10 (3-6 Big Ten) is still adjusting to life in their new conference, and it hasn't been kind. The Huskies have shown flashes of competitiveness, but the depth of Big Ten talent has exposed their roster limitations. Danny Sprinkle's group needs to find a breakthrough win to build momentum, but facing a Top 10 opponent on the road to their Big Ten confidence is a tall order. Washington will need to control tempo, limit turnovers, and hit an abnormally high percentage of three-pointers to have any chance of keeping this close.

The 153.5 total is intriguing given Illinois's offensive firepower, but don't expect a shootout. Illinois has tightened defensively this season, and they're comfortable winning games in the 70s rather than needing to score 90. Washington's best-case scenario involves slowing the game down and hoping Illinois goes cold from three, but the Illini have too many weapons to be completely shut down. The 12.5-point spread reflects the significant talent gap, but also accounts for the travel and time zone challenges that come with a Big Ten coast-to-coast trip. Illinois should handle business, but road games in the Pac-12 footprint always carry some inherent variance.