The Los Angeles Kings are one of the worst offensive teams in the NHL this season, and tonight's matchup against the Montreal Canadiens at Crypto.com Arena doesn't project as the spot where they suddenly break out of their scoring funk. With just 156 goals scored through 59 games, LA ranks 29th in the league in total goals and 28th in goals per game at 2.66. Those numbers aren't a fluke or a product of one bad stretch. They represent a team that simply cannot create enough consistent offense. Backing the under on the Kings team total at 3.5 goals with -160 odds is the play here, and it gets a full three-unit commitment as the free pick on today's nine-game NHL card.
Why the Kings Rank Bottom Five in NHL Scoring and Can't Hit 3.5 Goals
Adrian Kempe leads the Kings with 22 goals and 49 points this season, and Kevin Fiala sits second with 18 goals and 40 points. After those two, the production falls off considerably. This is a team that relies heavily on its top forwards to generate offense, and when Kempe and Fiala go cold, LA doesn't have the secondary scoring depth to compensate. The Kings' 2.66 goals per game average places them squarely among the bottom five offenses in the entire league, and the eye test matches the numbers. They aren't creating enough high-danger chances, they aren't capitalizing on the power play the way they did early in the year, and they aren't getting timely goals from their depth forwards.
The power play has been another area of concern. After starting the season with a scorching 33.0% conversion rate through early December, the Kings' power play efficiency dropped to roughly 26.9% by February. While that number is still respectable on paper, the decline in execution is real and reflects a broader pattern of this offense losing its rhythm as the season has progressed. The man advantage that was once carrying this team is no longer a reliable engine for production.
Kings Scoring Trends in Last 10 Games Point to Under 3.5 Team Total
The season-long numbers are bad. The recent form is worse. Over their last ten games, the Kings have posted a 3-6-1 record and averaged just 2.1 to 2.3 goals per game. That is a significant dropoff from the already poor season average, and it suggests the offensive woes are deepening rather than stabilizing as the calendar pushes toward March.
Here's a stat that really drives the point home. During Darcy Kuemper's last eight starts, the Kings scored just 2.38 goals per game in front of him. Kuemper himself has struggled during that stretch with a 1-3-3 record, a 3.48 GAA, and an .864 save percentage, but even if the goaltending had been sharper, the offense wasn't giving the team enough to win. When a club can't get to three goals even when their goaltender is having a rough stretch and games are theoretically more open, that tells you the offensive engine is fundamentally broken right now. Kuemper's season line sits at 15-12-9 with a 2.68 GAA and .897 save percentage, and the lack of goal support is a recurring theme in nearly every one of those losses.
Canadiens Goaltending Matchup Suppresses Kings Scoring Even Further
The Canadiens as a team aren't a defensive powerhouse. They've allowed 196 goals this season, ranking 24th in the league, and their collective save percentage of .878 is the fifth worst in the NHL. But here's the wrinkle that matters for this particular play. Jakub Dobes has been a revelation for Montreal with a 15-5-3 record on the season. While Samuel Montembeault sits at 9-8-2 and Jacob Fowler is at 4-4-2, Dobes has been far and away the most consistent option between the pipes for the Canadiens.
If Dobes gets the start tonight, the Kings are facing a young goaltender playing with tremendous confidence who has won more games than he's lost by a wide margin. Even if Montembeault draws in, the Kings' inability to score isn't really about who's standing in the opposing crease. LA has been unable to produce offense against just about everyone lately. This is a team that's losing games by scores of 4-1 and 3-1 while only mustering token offense in the process, and the identity of the opposing goaltender hasn't mattered.
Kings vs Canadiens Game Total and Pace Analysis Favors the Under
The game total is set between 6 and 6.5 depending on the book, with the Kings installed as -125 moneyline favorites. LA's defense has actually been one of the better units in the league at 176 goals against, ranking 8th in the NHL. The Kings can keep games close and low-scoring through their structure and goaltending. But their ability to generate goals of their own is the central problem, and it has been all season.
When you combine a season-long average below 2.7 goals per game, a recent stretch where that number has dropped to 2.1, a power play that's been trending downward for months, and no meaningful secondary scoring behind Kempe and Fiala, 3.5 goals is a generous number for this LA offense. The Kings have stayed under that threshold in seven of their last ten games, and there is nothing about tonight's matchup that suggests they're about to flip a switch and suddenly become a high-scoring team.
The Bottom Line
This is a play rooted in volume and consistency. The Kings don't score enough. They haven't scored enough all season. They've scored even less over the past two to three weeks. The team total under 3.5 at -160 asks us to project that one of the worst offenses in hockey will continue being one of the worst offenses in hockey for one more game. That is a reasonable and well-supported projection, and a three-unit play at this price reflects the confidence behind it. This is the free pick from today's full nine-game NHL card.
The Pick
Kings Team Total Under 3.5 (-160) | 3 Units
