NCAAB March 17, 2026

If you're a college basketball fan and the name UMBC doesn't give you chills, you haven't been paying attention. On March 16, 2018, the Retrievers became the first and only 16-seed to defeat a 1-seed in NCAA Tournament history, destroying Tony Bennett's Virginia Cavaliers 74-54 in what remains the single most shocking upset the tournament has ever produced. Jairus Lyles poured in 28 points that night, and a tiny commuter school in suburban Baltimore became a household name overnight. Now, eight years later, UMBC is back. They're riding a 12-game winning streak, they won the America East tournament convincingly, and they've got a 24-8 record that demands respect. This isn't a feel-good story about a cute little mid-major. This is a legitimately good basketball team.

The Retrievers are led by DJ Armstrong Jr., who was named America East Tournament Most Outstanding Player after dropping a career-high 33 points on 9-of-11 shooting in the conference championship game, including a blistering 7-of-9 from beyond the arc. Armstrong went 7-of-9 from beyond the arc in that championship game, and when he gets hot from deep, good luck slowing him down. Jah'Likai King earned First Team All-Conference honors as the team's leading scorer, while Ace Valentine added a Second Team All-Conference nod and provides a steady secondary scoring punch. In the paint, Jose Roberto Tanchyn and Josh Odunowo have transformed UMBC's interior defense since Tanchyn entered the starting lineup. Over the last 11 games, the Retrievers have allowed just a 22.8% rim rate, which ranks in the 98th percentile nationally. Head coach Jim Ferry has this team playing elite defense, averaging just 67.0 points allowed per game, which ranks 29th in the country. UMBC also commits the second-fewest fouls in the nation at 13.3 per game, meaning they rarely put opponents on the free throw line.

Howard has their own impressive story. The Bison won the MEAC regular season title and then claimed the conference tournament championship with a 70-63 win over North Carolina Central, finishing the year at 23-10. They're on an eight-game winning streak of their own and come into Dayton with serious momentum. MEAC Player of the Year Bryce Harris leads the way at 17.1 points per game, and he's flanked by Defensive Player of the Year Cedric Taylor III, who nearly matches Harris's production with a similar stat line of about 17 points and 7 rebounds per game. Point guard Cam Gillus is the engine that makes it all go, averaging 10.6 points while ranking third in the MEAC in both assists (4.6 per game) and steals (1.8 per game). All three made the MEAC All-Tournament team. The Bison also force turnovers at an elite rate, ranking 10th nationally with over 15 per game, and they've gone 7-2 against the spread as underdogs this season while winning all five of their neutral-site games.

Here's where it gets interesting from an analytical standpoint. UMBC holds a significant offensive efficiency advantage, ranking roughly 100 spots higher than Howard on KenPom in that category. But Howard flips the script defensively, holding nearly the same margin in defensive efficiency. Both teams played incredibly soft schedules during the regular season, but Howard at least tested themselves against Duke and Missouri in non-conference play. UMBC's 22 wins this season were all Quad 4 victories, and the Retrievers went 0-5 in Quad 1-3 games. That's the kind of stat that makes you pump the brakes on their winning streak, even if the eye test says they're playing terrific basketball right now.

The total of 140.5 tells you the market expects this to be a grind. Both defenses are stingy, and the neutral-site First Four environment often produces tighter, more cautious basketball as teams feel out the magnitude of the moment. The winner gets the dubious honor of facing Michigan, the number one seed in the Midwest, on Thursday in Buffalo. It's a near-impossible ask for either of these teams, but hey, UMBC already pulled off the impossible once. Stranger things have happened in March, and both of these programs are just grateful to be dancing.

If the first game is about history and charm, this one is about desperation and survival. Texas and NC State are both bubble teams that barely squeezed into the field, and neither one has been playing particularly well down the stretch. The Longhorns (18-14) have dropped five of their last six games coming in, while the Wolfpack (20-13) have also lost five of their last six. This is a matchup of two programs that limped to the finish line but had enough quality wins on their resumes to convince the Selection Committee they belonged. Now they have to prove it, with the loser heading home before the real tournament even begins.

Texas is in Year 1 under Sean Miller, who took over after the university fired Rodney Terry last March. Miller rebuilt the roster aggressively through the transfer portal, bringing in Dailyn Swain from his former Xavier program as the centerpiece. Swain has been terrific, leading the team in scoring (17.8 PPG), rebounds (7.6 RPG), assists (3.4 APG), and steals (1.7 SPG) while shooting an efficient 55.1% from the field. He's a 6-foot-8 wing who can do a little bit of everything, and he's the kind of versatile talent that can take over a game in a single-elimination setting. Jordan Pope and Tramon Mark provide secondary scoring punch in the backcourt, while Camden Heide, a transfer from Purdue, brings defensive toughness and deep shooting. Miller's teams have always been disciplined and well-prepared, and despite the rough recent stretch, Texas generated one of the most efficient offenses in the country during a mid-season five-game winning streak that showed what this group is capable of at its best.

NC State's story is equally compelling. Will Wade is in his first year coaching the Wolfpack, and he's got this team in the NCAA Tournament despite what looked like a rebuilding year on paper. The engine of everything NC State does is Quadir Copeland, who earned All-ACC Third Team honors after leading the conference in assists with an absurd 203-to-78 assist-to-turnover ratio on the season. Copeland averages 13.7 points per game while shooting 49.6% from the field and 40.4% from three, a massive improvement from the 15.4% he shot from deep during his lone season at McNeese. He's the lone player on NC State's roster that KenPom classifies as a "major contributor," meaning he's involved in 24-28% of the Wolfpack's possessions every game. Freshman Matt Able has been a revelation, popping off for 19 points against UNC while shooting 5-of-7 from beyond the arc. Darrion Williams provides instant offense off the bench, and Marcus McNeil Jr. showed he can be a go-to scorer with a 26-point explosion against Virginia.

The betting market essentially sees this as a pick'em, and it's easy to understand why. The spread has already flipped once since opening, moving from NC State -1.5 to Texas -1.5, which tells you the sharp money hasn't found a clear edge either way. ESPN's matchup predictor gives NC State a razor-thin 50.2% win probability, while KenPom and Bart Torvik both project a one-point Wolfpack victory. The total is interesting, ranging from 157.5 to 163.5 depending on the book. Both teams can score in bunches when they're clicking, and the up-tempo nature of a desperation game could push this over the number. Texas's size advantage on the glass could be the difference in a tight game. Swain's ability to grab offensive rebounds and create second chances is the kind of edge that shows up in close tournament games.

The stakes here are enormous. The winner advances to Portland to face sixth-seeded BYU on Thursday, with a potential path through Gonzaga and into the Sweet 16 if the basketball gods are smiling. For NC State, the 2024 Cinderella run to the Final Four as an 11-seed is still fresh in the program's memory, and the Wolfpack faithful are hoping lightning can strike twice. For Texas, this is Sean Miller's chance to validate the entire rebuild in one night. Both fan bases traveled well for Selection Sunday, and Dayton should be rocking for this one. These are two proud programs with everything on the line, playing for the right to keep their seasons alive. That's what March is all about.