The Presidents' Trophy-winning Colorado Avalanche head to Crypto.com Arena for Game 3 of a Western Conference First Round series with a 2-0 lead. Game 1 went to Colorado 2-1 behind Scott Wedgewood's 24 saves in his first career playoff start. Game 2 required overtime, with Nicolas Roy scoring the winner 7:44 into extra time for a 2-1 Avs win. Colorado is a 1.5-goal road favorite at -155 with the total set at 5.5. The puck line on Colorado -1.5 sits around +160 given the tight nature of both Game 1 and Game 2.
The story of the series is both goaltenders playing above their means. Wedgewood owns a .960 save percentage and +3.69 goals saved above expected through two games, a line that is flagged as unsustainable by every public model. Anton Forsberg on the Kings' side owns a .939 series save percentage despite a career .901 across four years. If either goaltender regresses, the game swings. Colorado has out-chanced Los Angeles by a wide margin at 5-on-5, with the Avs at 56.2 percent Corsi and 59.3 percent expected goals for, meaning the underlying play favors Colorado heavily and only Forsberg's heroics have kept the series within a goal.
Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Martin Necas, and the Avalanche top line have produced high-danger chances at playoff-leading rates. Necas has generated 4.93 expected goals but has only scored once in the last five games, a pace that is overdue for a regression to his scoring rate. Makar's puck movement and transition offense is the structural edge Colorado has over every other Western Conference team. The Kings' forecheck has been effective at slowing zone entries, but once the Avs establish the offensive zone, Los Angeles has been left chasing the puck.
Anze Kopitar, Adrian Kempe, Quinton Byfield, and the Kings' top forwards have produced just four goals total across the two games. Drew Doughty's minutes have been heavy, and Kevin Fiala's health remains a question mark for Game 3 after pre-series concerns about a fractured leg. Home-ice desperation and the potential for either goalie to regress makes Game 3 the Kings' best window to steal a series win, but the underlying shot-share numbers favor Colorado so heavily that the margin for error in Los Angeles is razor-thin. A 3-0 deficit would put the Kings in elimination mode in Game 4.