MLB Previews Today

Houston sends Mike Burrows (1-2, 5.63 ERA, 1.75 WHIP) to the mound in Seattle, and those numbers tell you everything about the state of the Astros' rotation right now. Burrows has been leaking baserunners at an alarming rate, and his 1.75 WHIP through three starts screams regression candidate in the wrong direction. The Astros at 8-7 have been winning games despite the pitching, not because of it, and asking Burrows to contain a Mariners lineup in their own building is a tall order given what we've seen so far.

George Kirby has been everything Seattle hoped he'd be. His 3.60 ERA is solid, but the 0.90 WHIP is the number that jumps off the page. Kirby already has a complete game on the season, and when he's locating his fastball and mixing in the slider effectively, he's one of the most efficient arms in the American League. The Mariners at 6-10 need wins desperately, and Kirby on the mound at home is their best chance to string something together before April gets away from them entirely.

The -171 moneyline on Seattle reflects the massive pitching gap in this game, and the market is right to price it that way. Burrows vs Kirby is a mismatch on paper, and the run line at SEA -1.5 (+123) suggests there's value if you believe the Mariners can win by two or more. Houston's lineup still has teeth with Alvarez and Altuve in the middle of the order, but Jeremy Pena is dealing with a knee issue that has him listed as day-to-day, and the bottom of the lineup hasn't produced consistently on the road.

The 7.5 total is suppressed by T-Mobile Park's pitcher-friendly dimensions and the expectation that Kirby will dominate, but Burrows' tendency to put runners on creates a real possibility that one inning unravels and pushes this over. Seattle's offense hasn't been dynamic this season, but they don't need to be with Kirby dealing. Three or four runs should be enough, and against Burrows, that feels very achievable. This is a game where the pitching matchup should dictate the outcome from the first pitch.

Arizona at 9-7 has quietly been one of the more consistent teams in the early going, and Ryne Nelson (1-1, 4.20 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) has been giving them competitive starts even if the ERA doesn't look elite. That 1.07 WHIP is the real story. Nelson isn't walking guys and he isn't giving up a ton of hard contact, which means the 4.20 ERA might be inflated by a couple of bad-luck innings rather than any fundamental flaw in his approach. The D-backs' offense has been rolling, and they bring a lineup to Camden Yards that can punish mistakes in a hurry.

Baltimore's season has been an absolute mess, and it starts with the injury report. Adley Rutschman is on the IL with an ankle injury, and Ryan Mountcastle is done with a broken foot. Those are two of the most important bats in the lineup, and replacing that production in the middle of April isn't something any team can do seamlessly. The Orioles at 6-9 haven't announced a starter for this game, and an unannounced pitcher against a hot Arizona lineup is the kind of combination that leads to lopsided results.

The +109/-131 moneyline makes this one of the tighter games on the board, but the value might actually lean Arizona's way given the circumstances. An unannounced starter usually means either a bullpen game or a spot starter who isn't part of the regular rotation, and either scenario benefits a disciplined lineup like the D-backs'. Nelson's ability to limit free passes means Arizona won't beat themselves, and their defense has been solid enough to keep things clean behind him.

The 8.5 total is the market's way of saying Camden Yards can still produce runs even with both teams dealing with pitching uncertainty. Baltimore's ballpark has always rewarded power hitters, and Arizona has the kind of right-handed pop that plays well in the gaps. Without Rutschman behind the plate to manage the pitching staff, the Orioles' defensive infrastructure takes a hit as well. This feels like a game where Arizona's stability at every position gives them a meaningful edge over a Baltimore team that's scrambling to fill holes.

National television gets a pitching matchup that deserves the spotlight. Cristopher Sanchez (1-1, 1.65 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 23 K) has picked up right where he left off after finishing second in the NL Cy Young race last year, when he went 13-5 with a 2.50 ERA. The Phillies rewarded him with a six-year, $107 million extension, and through three starts he looks like he's worth every penny. His ability to generate weak contact and pile up ground balls makes him one of the most efficient arms in the National League, and the strikeout numbers are ticking up as well.

Javier Assad (1-0, 3.65 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) has been a dependable middle-of-the-rotation arm for the Cubs, and he'll need to be sharp tonight against a Phillies lineup that can turn any mistake into a crooked inning. Chicago at 7-8 is still finding its footing with Alex Bregman in the lineup, and the early returns have been solid but inconsistent. The Cubs' offense has the talent to compete with anyone, but without a true ace leading the rotation, they're in a spot where every game feels like a grind rather than a statement.

The -186 moneyline on Philadelphia is steep but justified. Sanchez at home with that kind of command against a Cubs lineup that's been streaky is a tough spot for Chicago. The Phillies at 7-8 aren't where they expected to be either, but their pitching has been the foundation holding things together while the offense wakes up. Zack Wheeler is targeting an April 24-26 return from thoracic outlet surgery, which will give this rotation even more depth, but for now Sanchez is carrying the load like a frontline starter should.

The 8.0 total is right in the sweet spot for a game where one elite starter faces a solid but beatable one. Sanchez's ground ball approach limits damage even when he makes mistakes, while Assad is the type of pitcher who can get hit around the park if his sinker isn't sinking. Citizens Bank Park has always been a place where offense can show up in bunches, and the Cubs' right-handed power could challenge Sanchez in the later innings if he loses his feel. But betting against Sanchez at home on national TV feels like a recipe for frustration. This is his stage, and he knows it.

The heaviest favorite on the entire Monday board is Paul Skenes at -226, and that number tells you how much the market still believes in the reigning NL Cy Young winner despite a rocky start to 2026. Skenes' 5.25 ERA through his first three outings doesn't look anything like the pitcher who dominated the National League last season, and the Opening Day disaster, where he gave up five runs in the first inning, is still fresh in everyone's mind. But the bounce-back start against Cincinnati showed that the stuff is still there, and the market is betting on the talent over the small sample.

Cade Cavalli (3-1, 4.25 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 40 K) has been one of the pleasant surprises of the early season for Washington. The strikeout numbers are impressive, and his 40 K through four starts suggest he's missing bats at a rate that can keep the Nationals competitive even in games where the defense behind him isn't airtight. Washington at 7-8 has been scrappy and competitive, and Cavalli's development into a legitimate starting pitcher gives them a foundation to build around.

Pittsburgh at 9-6 has been one of the best stories in baseball. The Pirates are playing with a swagger and confidence that's been absent from PNC Park for years, and their lineup has been producing runs from top to bottom of the order. Skenes is the face of this new era, and the franchise is banking on him to shake off the early struggles and return to the form that made him the most dominant pitcher in baseball last year. At home with this kind of run support, the conditions are perfect for a statement start.

The 7.5 total is low, which makes sense given Skenes' ceiling and Cavalli's strikeout ability. This could easily turn into a pitchers' duel if both guys are on, but the question is whether Skenes can go deep enough into the game to keep the bullpen out of it. His pitch count has been elevated in the early starts, and if Cavalli can keep the game close through five or six innings, Washington's bullpen gives them a chance to steal one against the board's biggest favorite. The run line at PIT -1.5 (+102) is essentially even money, which tells you the market expects a tight game despite the massive moneyline gap.

Will Warren has been a revelation for the Yankees, and that's not hyperbole. His 1-0 record with a 2.70 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and a 55.2% ground ball rate is exactly the kind of pitching profile New York desperately needs with Gerrit Cole on the shelf recovering from Tommy John surgery and Carlos Rodon done with an elbow injury. Warren isn't going to overpower anyone with velocity, but he commands the zone, generates ground balls, and lets the defense behind him do the work. For a Yankees team at 8-7 that's been patching the rotation together with duct tape, Warren has been a lifeline.

On the other side, Yusei Kikuchi (0-2, 6.75 ERA, 2.077 WHIP) has been nothing short of dreadful. A 2.077 WHIP means he's putting nearly two runners on base per inning, and against a Yankees lineup that can punish baserunner traffic, that's a recipe for a nightmare. The Angels at 7-9 have been hovering around mediocrity all season, and Kikuchi's inability to give them length or efficiency has been a significant drag on the overall pitching workload. Every Kikuchi start feels like it's one bad inning away from becoming a blowout.

The -186 moneyline on New York is steep, but it's hard to argue with the reasoning. Warren vs Kikuchi is a massive pitching mismatch, and the Angels bring the most strikeout-prone lineup in baseball into the Bronx. That combination, a starter who can't throw strikes against a lineup that chases and whiffs, is about as dangerous as it gets. Anthony Volpe is out with a torn labrum, which takes a key bat out of the Yankees' lineup, but the depth around him should be more than enough to capitalize on Kikuchi's command issues.

The 9.0 total is the highest on the board (tied with two others), and it's inflated largely because of Kikuchi. If Warren pitches to his capabilities, the over would need the Angels to contribute significantly, and their offense hasn't been consistent enough to guarantee that. But if Kikuchi implodes early and the Yankees jump on him in the first few innings, this thing could get out of hand quickly. The run line at NYY -1.5 (+113) offers plus money on a team with a significant starting pitching advantage, which is the kind of spot that tends to attract sharp attention.

Atlanta owns the best record on the board at 10-6, and Grant Holmes (0-1, 2.45 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) has been one of the reasons for their fast start. The young righthander has been spotless through his first few outings, and that 1.00 WHIP tells you he's pitching with precision and efficiency that belies his limited big-league experience. Holmes has been locating his fastball on the corners and getting hitters to expand the zone, which is exactly what you want from a developing arm in a rotation that has postseason aspirations.

Eury Perez (1-1, 5.06 ERA) has the kind of arm talent that makes you believe the results will eventually catch up to the stuff, but right now the 5.06 ERA reflects a young pitcher who's still learning how to navigate lineups for the second and third time through the order. Miami at 8-8 has been surprisingly competitive, and Perez's development is a key piece of their long-term puzzle. The question tonight is whether he can avoid the big inning against an Atlanta lineup that's been one of the most complete in the National League.

The -143 moneyline on Atlanta makes this the closest game among the clear favorites on the board, and that feels about right. Miami at .500 isn't a pushover, and the Marlins have shown they can compete in any environment. But the Braves' lineup at Truist Park is a different animal. The combination of power, patience, and lineup depth gives Atlanta the ability to wear down opposing starters and exploit any reliever who comes in without his best stuff. Holmes just needs to give them six solid innings and let the offense do the rest.

The 8.0 total is moderate for a game at Truist Park, and both starters' profiles suggest the early innings could be tight before one side breaks through. Perez has the kind of fastball that can fool hitters when he's commanding it, but he's also prone to the elevated pitch that gets crushed when he misses location. Atlanta's power hitters won't miss those mistakes. If the Braves can get to Perez early and force Miami into their bullpen by the fifth or sixth inning, the depth advantage becomes overwhelming and this game could tilt decisively toward the home team.

Here's something you don't see every day: a team with a 6-9 record listed as a -168 road favorite. That's the power of Garrett Crochet on the mound. The former 2025 All-Star (18-5, 2.59 ERA, 255 K) has been everything Boston hoped when they acquired him, and his early-season numbers, 1-1 with a 3.12 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 22 strikeouts and just 4 walks in 17.1 innings, suggest he's just scratching the surface of what he can do in 2026. When Crochet is on, there might not be five pitchers in baseball who are harder to hit.

The Red Sox at 6-9 have been a disaster outside of Crochet's starts, and the 11 players currently on the injured list tells you everything about why Boston is sitting four games under .500 in mid-April. But the market isn't pricing the Red Sox roster. It's pricing Crochet vs Bailey Ober, and that's a matchup that overwhelmingly favors the left-hander's elite stuff. Minnesota at 9-7 has been solid, and they're playing at home, but the line says none of that matters when Crochet is dealing.

The under at 7.5 is juiced to -122, and it's hard to argue with the reasoning. Crochet's strikeout rate suppresses offense, and Target Field in April isn't exactly a launching pad. Minnesota's lineup has been balanced and professional, but they haven't faced an arm with this kind of velocity and movement combination since the season started. Ober will need to match zeros early, because the moment Boston's lineup gets a lead behind Crochet, this game is essentially over. He's not the type of pitcher who lets teams back in.

The run line at BOS -1.5 (+104) offering plus money on a dominant starter is the kind of number that makes you pause. Boston's offense has been inconsistent, which is why the market isn't fully committing to a blowout line, but Crochet's ability to pitch deep into games means the Red Sox bullpen, which has been shaky, might not even need to appear. If Crochet goes seven or eight innings with two runs or fewer, which his skill set absolutely supports, the Red Sox don't need to score more than three or four to cover comfortably.

This is the closest game on the entire board, and the -118/-102 moneyline tells you the market essentially sees this as a coin flip with a slight lean toward Cleveland. And when you look at the pitching matchup, that makes perfect sense. Gavin Williams (1-1, 2.04 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 25 K, .098 BAA) has been absolutely filthy through his early starts. A .098 batting average against is borderline absurd, and it means hitters are flailing at pitches they simply cannot square up. Williams has the kind of stuff that translates against any lineup, and his confidence is growing with every outing.

Matthew Liberatore earned the Opening Day start for St. Louis, which tells you how much the Cardinals believe in his development. The lefty has shown flashes of becoming a quality mid-rotation arm, and pitching at Busch Stadium, one of the better pitcher's parks in the National League, gives him an environment that suppresses hard contact. The Cardinals at 8-7 have been competitive all season, and their lineup has been patient enough to grind through tough at-bats and get to opposing bullpens.

Cleveland at 9-7 is tied atop the AL Central with Minnesota, and games like this are where contending teams separate themselves from the pack. The Guardians play clean baseball, they don't beat themselves, and Williams gives them a legitimate front-of-the-rotation arm who can dominate on any given night. The 25 strikeouts in his early starts show a pitcher who's trusting his stuff and attacking the zone with conviction, and that mentality is what turns good pitchers into great ones.

The 8.0 total feels right for a game between two well-pitched teams in a pitcher-friendly park. Williams' dominance suggests the under could have value, but Liberatore will need to match him inning for inning to keep this game from tilting. If Cleveland gets to Liberatore early and forces St. Louis into a bullpen game, the Guardians' ability to manufacture runs through contact and baserunning could be the difference. This is a purist's game: two quality starters, two competitive lineups, and a total that says expect a tight one from start to finish.

Something is seriously wrong with Nathan Eovaldi, and the numbers don't require a deep dive to figure it out. A 7.98 ERA and 1.84 WHIP from a guy who posted a league-best 1.73 ERA in the second half of 2025 is one of the most dramatic early-season collapses in recent memory. Eovaldi has been getting hammered from the first pitch, and his inability to locate the fastball has turned every start into an adventure for the Rangers' defense. Texas at 8-7 has been winning in spite of Eovaldi, not because of him, and tonight's matchup against Oakland isn't the breather it used to be.

Luis Severino (0-0, 3.60 ERA) signed a three-year, $67 million deal with the Athletics, and the early returns suggest Oakland got a legitimate front-of-the-rotation arm for the first time in years. Severino has been efficient and competitive through his early starts, and his presence gives the A's a foundation that this franchise hasn't had since before the rebuild began. Oakland at 8-8 is playing meaningful baseball in April, which is more than most people expected, and Severino is the primary reason why they're relevant.

The -136/+113 moneyline favoring Texas despite Eovaldi's disasters tells you the market is still pricing the Rangers' overall roster quality over the pitching matchup. And there's logic to that. Texas has the deeper lineup and the better bullpen, which means if they can survive Eovaldi's start and get to the middle innings without a massive deficit, the game tilts back in their favor. But that's a big if when your starter has been the worst pitcher in the American League through three outings. Josh Langford is also dealing with quad and oblique issues, leaving him day-to-day.

The 9.0 total is tied for the highest on the board, and Eovaldi's ERA is the primary driver. This game has the feel of one that could get out of hand early if Eovaldi can't find the zone, but Severino isn't immune to big innings either, and the Rangers' lineup has enough pop to punish mistakes. Oakland's ballpark, wherever they're playing these days, has been a neutral-to-hitter-friendly environment, and the late West Coast start means both bullpens will be rested and ready to go if the starters can't get through five. Buckle up for this one.