Soccer February 1, 2026

Here's the situation Spurs find themselves in: they've somehow qualified for the Champions League knockout rounds with a top-8 finish in the league phase, yet they sit a miserable 14th in the Premier League table without a league win in 2026. That's the kind of schizophrenic season that gets managers fired, and Ange Postecoglou has to be feeling the heat as second-placed Manchester City roll into North London. The Cityzens have won 14 of 22 matches where they've been favored this season, including 11 wins in 15 games when installed as -137 favorites or greater. This is a team that simply takes care of business against inferior opposition.

The numbers tell a fascinating story about this matchup's likely texture. Tottenham have seen under 2.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 home matches against City, a stat that screams caution for anyone looking at the 3.0-goal total. Pep Guardiola's side doesn't need to blow out a struggling Spurs, they just need to control the game and take their chances. With their Goal Supremacy spread set at 0.85-1.05, the market expects City to win by approximately one goal, and given Tottenham's attacking woes in league play this calendar year, that feels about right.

What makes the -147 on City compelling is Spurs' fundamental inability to build from the back under pressure. Postecoglou's insistence on playing out from the goalkeeper has led to countless turnovers in dangerous areas this season, and there's no team in world football better at pressing and punishing those mistakes than Manchester City. The home crowd will be desperate for any positive result, but desperation doesn't stop Erling Haaland. City have covered against teams with similar profiles all season long, winning by comfortable margins when the opposition sits deep and by narrow margins when they press. Either way, they're finding ways to win.

The one concern for City backers is the congested fixture schedule. They're juggling Champions League, Premier League, and domestic cup commitments, and rotation could be a factor. But Guardiola has managed these situations masterfully for years, and his squad depth is arguably the best in world football. Look for City to control possession, limit Spurs to speculative long-range efforts, and grind out a professional victory that keeps the pressure on league leaders Arsenal.

The Basque Derby is one of European football's most intense rivalries, and this edition arrives with both clubs in very different form trajectories. Athletic Club (13th, 24 points) have stumbled badly in recent weeks with consecutive La Liga defeats, while Real Sociedad (8th, 27 points) are riding high after a 3-1 victory over Celta de Vigo and four wins in their last five outings. La Real arrive at San Mamés with genuine belief they can claim bragging rights from a venue that's historically been unkind to them.

Here's the wrinkle: Athletic have won four straight home meetings against Sociedad, conceding just one goal during that stretch. San Mamés transforms for derby day, and whatever struggles Athletic have experienced on the road tend to evaporate when Los Leones play in front of their own supporters against their neighbors. The -128 moneyline reflects this historical dominance while acknowledging Sociedad's superior form. Manager Ernesto Valverde needs his side to rediscover their identity after that 2-1 defeat at Sevilla left them looking listless in the final third.

The card market deserves attention here. Across the last nine meetings between these clubs, there's been an average of 5.56 cards per game, and with the fixture's emotional intensity cranked to maximum, expect referee appointments to be busy. Igor Zubeldia is likely to return for Sociedad after his replacement Duje Caleta-Car saw red last week, and Zubeldia himself has been carded six times this season. The 9/2 odds on a sending off feel generous given recent history, with both clubs showing five reds in their last 18-19 competitive matches.

Both teams to score at 1.91 represents an interesting angle. Athletic's home record suggests they'll find the net, and Sociedad's attacking quality with Mikel Oyarzabal and the dangerous support cast makes them a threat to any defense. The under 2.5 goals at -150 reflects the defensive tension inherent to derby matches, but this particular edition could break pattern if Athletic's aggressive home support pushes them forward and creates space for Sociedad's counterattack. Either way, this is must-watch football between two proud Basque institutions.