Sunderland vs Burnley
Monday, 3:00 PM ET | Stadium of Light, Sunderland
A battle between two promoted sides with vastly different trajectories in their first Premier League season. Sunderland have been the surprise package of the campaign, remaining unbeaten at the Stadium of Light with 6 wins and 5 draws from their 11 home matches. Their home form has been exceptional, and the passionate Wearside faithful have created a fortress atmosphere that visiting teams have struggled to penetrate.
Burnley, on the other hand, find themselves in a relegation dogfight. Languishing in 19th place with just 3 wins and a 13% win percentage, the Clarets have been particularly poor on the road, winning just once in 11 away games. Their defensive record is alarming, having conceded 44 goals, the second-worst in the division. Without a drastic improvement, Burnley are heading straight back to the Championship.
The bookmakers have Sunderland as -139 favorites, giving them an implied 58% probability of victory. That line seems fair given Sunderland's dominant home record and Burnley's woeful away form. The Under 3 goals at -154 is worth considering, as both teams have shown a tendency toward lower-scoring affairs in recent weeks. Sunderland have the quality to win this comfortably, and a 2-0 scoreline at +575 offers decent value for those looking for a correct score play.