Soccer Predictions Picks Best Bets Monday February 23 2026

Two sides occupying opposite ends of the La Liga mood spectrum meet at the Mendizorrotza in a match that carries different stakes for each team. Alaves sit 14th with 26 points, just two points clear of the relegation zone, and every single fixture at this stage of the season feels like a cup final for them. Every dropped point tightens the noose. Girona, meanwhile, arrive in Vitoria-Gasteiz in significantly better spirits, sitting 12th with 29 points and riding the high of one of the most impressive results of the La Liga season: a stunning 2-1 comeback victory over Barcelona just last week. That result, sealed by Fran Beltran's 86th-minute winner after Lamine Yamal had missed a penalty, was a reminder that Girona, for all their inconsistencies this campaign, still possess the quality to compete with the very best.

Alaves' situation is precarious but not hopeless. They've collected seven points from their last four outings, including a respectable 1-1 draw against Sevilla, and their home form at the Mendizorrotza has been one of the few reliable foundations of their season. The compact, intense atmosphere of the stadium in the Basque Country has always been a difficult place for visiting sides, and the supporters understand what's at stake. Alaves' underlying numbers are actually more encouraging than their league position suggests. They've underperformed their expected goals (xG) by nearly 10 goals this season, which means they've been creating enough chances to be higher in the table but have simply been wasteful in front of goal. If they can start converting at a more normal rate, the results will follow. But "if" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence when you're two points from the drop.

Girona's win over Barcelona changes the complexion of this fixture entirely. Before that result, they were on a three-game winless run and sinking toward the kind of second-half-of-the-season collapse that nobody in Catalonia wanted to see after their remarkable 2023-24 campaign. But beating Barca, especially in the dramatic fashion they managed it with Thomas Lemar equalizing and Beltran finding the winner late on, injects confidence and belief that can carry a squad for weeks. The challenge for Girona now is backing up that statement result with consistent performance against less glamorous opposition. It's one thing to raise your level against Barcelona. It's another entirely to bring that same energy and sharpness to a Monday night in Vitoria-Gasteiz against a team fighting for its life.

This has all the hallmarks of a cagey, tense affair. Alaves will avoid unnecessary risks because the cost of defeat is too severe, and Girona tend to play pragmatically on the road regardless of recent results. The head-to-head history between these two reinforces the expectation of a tight contest. Don't expect fireworks or a basketball scoreline here. Expect two cautious teams probing for an opening, trying to win the midfield battle, and hoping that one moment of quality or one set-piece delivery is enough to decide it.

Two clubs at the wrong end of the Serie A table meet at the Stadio Artemio Franchi in a match that both sides desperately need to win. Fiorentina, sitting 18th with 21 points, have shown signs of life recently with an unbeaten run of three games across all competitions, capped by a crucial 2-1 away victory over Como last weekend. Nicolo Fagioli opened the scoring in the first half and Moise Kean sealed it after the break, and that result felt like the kind of performance that could spark a genuine survival push. Before that win, Fiorentina had gone four games without a victory, so the timing of this uptick in form couldn't be more critical. Pisa, on the other hand, are in freefall. Sitting 19th with just 15 points and mired in a run of 14 consecutive games without a win, they arrive in Florence looking like a side that's already accepted its fate.

The Stadio Artemio Franchi has traditionally been a fortress for Fiorentina in this fixture, and the head-to-head numbers are overwhelming. In nine meetings at the Franchi, Fiorentina have won six times, drawn three, and Pisa have never won on this ground. Not once. Zero victories in Florence across the entire history of this matchup. That's the kind of psychological advantage that weighs heavily on a squad already as fragile as Pisa's. When you haven't won in 14 straight and you're heading to a ground where you've never tasted victory, the mental challenge is almost as daunting as the tactical one.

Fiorentina's recent improvement gives them genuine reasons for optimism heading into this one. The combination of Fagioli's creativity in midfield and Kean's predatory instincts up front provides a platform that can cause real problems, and the defensive organization that produced that Como result suggests the coaching staff has found a structure the players believe in. They need to build on this momentum. Three points here would lift them out of the bottom three and create the kind of positive energy that can transform a relegation scrap. Everything about this fixture favors the hosts: home advantage, historical dominance, better form, and a desperate need for points that should fuel their intensity from the opening whistle.

For Pisa, this is about pride more than anything else. Fourteen games without a win is a devastating run at any level of football, and the longer it goes on, the harder it becomes to break the cycle. Confidence erodes, decision-making suffers, and every setback feels amplified when you're stuck in a spiral like that. They'll set up to be compact and hard to beat, hoping to frustrate Fiorentina and maybe catch them on the counter, but the reality is that their squad is significantly weaker and their mental state is significantly more fragile than the home side. The last meeting between these teams ended 0-0, which gives Pisa a sliver of hope that they can at least keep things tight, but Fiorentina's renewed attacking confidence makes a repeat of that stalemate feel unlikely.

Here's a stat that will make you do a double take: Bologna are winless in their last seven Serie A home games, suffering six defeats in that stretch. Six losses in seven at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. For a club that qualified for the Champions League not long ago, that's an almost incomprehensible home record, and it turns what should be a straightforward fixture against a struggling Udinese into something far more unpredictable. Bologna sit 10th with nine wins, six draws, and ten losses from 25 matches, and on paper they should be handling a team like Udinese with relative ease. But that home form tells a different story entirely. Something about the Dall'Ara has turned toxic for the Rossoblu, and until they can exorcise whatever demons are haunting them there, every home fixture comes with an asterisk.

The bizarre thing about Bologna's season is that they're perfectly capable of performing away from home. They beat Torino 2-1 on the road recently and followed it up with a 1-0 away victory over Brann in the Europa League knockout phase. Castro and Riccardo Orsolini have been the joint-top scorers and both are capable of producing match-winning moments, while the return of Lorenzo De Silvestri and Torbjorn Heggem to training gives the squad options it has been lacking. Only Charalampos Lykogiannis is confirmed absent. So the talent is there. The coaching is there. The results are there, just not at home. That disconnect between home and away form is one of the most puzzling stories in Serie A this season.

Udinese arrive at the Dall'Ara on the back of two consecutive defeats, and their injury list is concerning. Alessandro Zanoli, Hassane Kamara, Keinan Davis, and Oumar Solet are all unavailable, which strips away meaningful depth from a squad that's only one point behind Bologna in the table. The two sides are separated by a single point and one position in the standings, which tells you how evenly matched they are on aggregate this season. Udinese's approach will likely be built around a compact defensive block, relying on the pace and directness of their forwards to exploit any mistakes from Bologna's backline, which has been alarmingly error-prone in front of its own supporters.

The tactical dynamic here is genuinely fascinating. Bologna will dominate possession and try to play through Udinese's block, but every time they push forward at home, there seems to be a vulnerability that opponents exploit. Udinese's depleted squad makes them weaker on paper, but there's a psychological element at play that could level the playing field. Bologna's players will feel the weight of that seven-game winless home run pressing down on them from the first whistle, and the crowd at the Dall'Ara will be a mixture of hope and anxiety. Those are tricky emotional conditions for any team trying to rediscover confidence. For the neutrals, this is the kind of game where the narrative is just as compelling as the football itself. Can Bologna finally win at home? Or does the curse continue against a wounded but dangerous Udinese side?