Match of the Night
CBS Sports

AS Roma vs VfB Stuttgart

Thursday, 3:00 PM ET | Stadio Olimpico | Europa League Matchday 7
3-Way ML: Roma -117 (1.85) / Draw +250 (3.50) / Stuttgart +275 (3.75) | O/U 2.5 Goals: Over 1.88 | BTTS: Yes 1.80

Here's a match that screams "circled on the calendar" for any serious Europa League observer. Roma and Stuttgart enter Thursday's showdown at the Stadio Olimpico separated by nothing but goal difference, both sitting on 12 points and occupying 9th and 10th place respectively in the league phase standings. The stakes couldn't be clearer: finish in the top 8 and you waltz straight into the Round of 16. Finish 9th through 24th and you're grinding through an extra playoff round. This one matters.

Roma's European form has been a rollercoaster worthy of the Eternal City's famous seven hills. After stumbling through their opening fixtures, the Giallorossi have found their rhythm under Claudio Ranieri's pragmatic guidance. Paulo Dybala has rediscovered his lethal touch when it matters most in continental competition, with four Europa League goals to his name this campaign. The Argentine's ability to unlock defenses in tight spaces will be essential against a Stuttgart side that defends in compact blocks.

Expected Goals Analysis (Europa League 2025-26)
AS Roma
xG: 10.3 | Goals: 10
xGA: 5.2 | Goals Against: 5
xG Differential: +5.1
VfB Stuttgart
xG: 12.8 | Goals: 12
xGA: 5.9 | Goals Against: 5
xG Differential: +6.9

Stuttgart's Bundesliga disappointment this season masks what's been a genuinely impressive European campaign. Sebastian Hoeness has his side playing expansive, progressive football that's seen them generate the second-highest xG in the competition. The German outfit boasts a +7 goal differential in Europe, their attack led by the electrifying Enzo Millot and the clinical finishing of Deniz Undav. They're averaging 2.0 goals per Europa League match and haven't failed to score once.

Betting Trends
Roma H2H vs Bundesliga clubs (last 5)3W-1D-1L
Stuttgart Europa League away record2W-0D-1L
Roma home games O2.5 (Europa League)2 of 3 (67%)
BTTS in Roma's Europa League matches3 of 6 (50%)

The Stadio Olimpico should be absolutely electric for this one. Roma's passionate supporters have embraced the Europa League as their path back to European glory, and Thursday evening kickoffs bring out the best of the curva sud. Stuttgart will need to weather an early storm and find pockets of space to exploit with their vertical passing game. The suspended Rodrigo Zalazar is a massive miss for Braga elsewhere on this matchday, and similarly, Roma will be without the injured Alexis Saelemaekers, limiting their width options.

The Bottom Line

This is as close to a 50/50 Europa League fixture as you'll find this matchday. Roma's home advantage and Dybala's big-game magic tip the scales slightly, but Stuttgart's xG numbers suggest they're creating enough chances to hurt anyone. The 3.50 draw price looks intriguing given both teams need points, though the over 2.5 at 1.88 might be the sharpest play on the board. Two attack-minded teams with everything to play for under the Roman lights. Buckle up.

Game 2
Paramount+

Rangers vs Ludogorets

Thursday, 3:00 PM ET | Ibrox Stadium | Europa League Matchday 7
3-Way ML: Rangers -130 (1.76) / Draw +281 (3.81) / Ludogorets +325 (4.25) | Rangers Win & BTTS: 5/2

Rangers have found themselves in an uncomfortable position heading into the business end of the Europa League group phase. One solitary point from their opening six matches has left the Gers languishing in 33rd place, staring elimination squarely in the face. But here's the thing about Ibrox on a European night: that famous old ground has seen more dramatic turnarounds than a Christopher Nolan film. Soren Rohl's side needs nothing less than maximum points from their final two fixtures, and they'll fancy their chances against a Ludogorets side that's shipped 14 goals in six league phase matches.

The Bulgarian champions arrive in Glasgow with seven points and a mathematical chance of qualification, but their defensive fragility has been exposed repeatedly against quality opposition. Only one team in the entire competition has conceded more goals than Ludogorets. Key defensive injuries to Swedish internationals Edvin Kurtulus and Joel Andersson, plus midfielder Aguibou Camara, have left gaping holes that Rangers' in-form attack should relish exploiting. The Gers are riding a six-game winning streak across all competitions with four clean sheets during that run, scoring 15 goals in the process.

Rangers' Recent Form
Win Streak
6 Games
Goals Scored
15
Clean Sheets
4
Europa League Pts
1

The January window has brought reinforcements that couldn't have come at a better time. While new signings Andreas Skov Olsen, Tochi Chukwuani, and Tuur Rommens are cup-tied for this competition, their arrival has added depth and allowed Rohl to rotate his squad more effectively. Dujon Sterling and Connor Barron remain sidelined, but Oliver Antman has recovered from illness and should feature. The Scottish giants have scored in 12 consecutive home matches across all competitions, and their supporters will create an atmosphere that can rattle any visiting side.

Key Match Facts
Rangers home win streak (all comps)5 games
Ludogorets Europa League wins2 of 6
Ludogorets goals conceded in EL14 (2nd worst)
Rangers goals scored at home (recent)12+ consecutive matches

The Bottom Line

Rangers are desperate, dangerous, and playing at Ibrox under the lights. That's a cocktail that has intoxicated many visiting European sides over the decades. Ludogorets have beaten Malmo away and Celta Vigo at home, proving they're capable of results, but their defensive issues and injury problems make them vulnerable against a resurgent Rangers attack. The home side should control this one, though Ludogorets might nick a goal given their scoring record. Rangers win with both teams to score at 5/2 offers genuine value.

Game 3
TNT Sports

Sporting Braga vs Nottingham Forest

Thursday, 3:00 PM ET | Estádio Municipal de Braga | Europa League Matchday 7
3-Way ML: Braga +165 (2.65) / Draw +245 (3.45) / Forest +155 (2.55) | DNB: Forest -127 / Braga -112

Two teams separated by just four places in the Europa League standings meet at one of Portugal's most dramatic football venues. Braga's Municipal Stadium, with its iconic quarry wall rising behind one goal, provides a fitting backdrop for what promises to be a crucial encounter. The hosts sit 7th with 11 points, while Nottingham Forest occupy 11th place with 10 points. Both clubs are well-positioned for direct qualification to the Round of 16, but neither can afford to take their foot off the gas with so much still to play for.

Forest's European adventure under Nuno Espirito Santo has been a revelation. The Portuguese manager's tactical nous has translated seamlessly to continental competition, with Forest's defensive solidity forming the foundation of their campaign. They arrive in Braga off the back of a 0-0 draw with Arsenal at the City Ground, a result that underlined their ability to frustrate elite opposition. Chris Wood's goal-scoring exploits have been well-documented in the Premier League, and he'll look to add to his European tally against a Braga defense that can be opened up.

Competition Standings Context
Sporting Braga
Position: 7th
Points: 11
GD: +4
Nottingham Forest
Position: 11th
Points: 10
GD: +3

Braga's biggest blow comes via suspension rather than injury. Rodrigo Zalazar, their top goalscorer and creative hub, misses out after picking up his third yellow card of the competition. His absence leaves a significant void in the final third that Carlos Carvalhal will need to find a way to fill. The Portuguese side got the job done in their most recent outing, a narrow 1-0 Primeira Liga win at Tondela courtesy of Zalazar's late strike, but European competition presents a different challenge entirely.

Head-to-Head Context
Forest European away record (2025-26)W1-D2-L0
Braga home wins in Europa League2 of 3
Forest clean sheets in competition3 of 6
Braga's home xG average (EL)1.7 per game

The Bottom Line

This is a fascinating tactical chess match between two well-organized sides. Braga's home record is solid, but Zalazar's absence is massive. Forest have proven they can travel in Europe, remaining unbeaten away from home in this competition. The +155 price on Forest to win looks generous given their form and Braga's suspension issues. If you prefer to eliminate the draw risk, Forest at -127 on the Draw No Bet market is the sharper play. A low-scoring affair wouldn't surprise anyone, but Forest have the tools to nick this one.