AS Roma vs VfB Stuttgart
Thursday, 3:00 PM ET | Stadio Olimpico | Europa League Matchday 7
Here's a match that screams "circled on the calendar" for any serious Europa League observer. Roma and Stuttgart enter Thursday's showdown at the Stadio Olimpico separated by nothing but goal difference, both sitting on 12 points and occupying 9th and 10th place respectively in the league phase standings. The stakes couldn't be clearer: finish in the top 8 and you waltz straight into the Round of 16. Finish 9th through 24th and you're grinding through an extra playoff round. This one matters.
Roma's European form has been a rollercoaster worthy of the Eternal City's famous seven hills. After stumbling through their opening fixtures, the Giallorossi have found their rhythm under Claudio Ranieri's pragmatic guidance. Paulo Dybala has rediscovered his lethal touch when it matters most in continental competition, with four Europa League goals to his name this campaign. The Argentine's ability to unlock defenses in tight spaces will be essential against a Stuttgart side that defends in compact blocks.
xGA: 5.2 | Goals Against: 5
xG Differential: +5.1
xGA: 5.9 | Goals Against: 5
xG Differential: +6.9
Stuttgart's Bundesliga disappointment this season masks what's been a genuinely impressive European campaign. Sebastian Hoeness has his side playing expansive, progressive football that's seen them generate the second-highest xG in the competition. The German outfit boasts a +7 goal differential in Europe, their attack led by the electrifying Enzo Millot and the clinical finishing of Deniz Undav. They're averaging 2.0 goals per Europa League match and haven't failed to score once.
The Stadio Olimpico should be absolutely electric for this one. Roma's passionate supporters have embraced the Europa League as their path back to European glory, and Thursday evening kickoffs bring out the best of the curva sud. Stuttgart will need to weather an early storm and find pockets of space to exploit with their vertical passing game. The suspended Rodrigo Zalazar is a massive miss for Braga elsewhere on this matchday, and similarly, Roma will be without the injured Alexis Saelemaekers, limiting their width options.
The Bottom Line
This is as close to a 50/50 Europa League fixture as you'll find this matchday. Roma's home advantage and Dybala's big-game magic tip the scales slightly, but Stuttgart's xG numbers suggest they're creating enough chances to hurt anyone. The 3.50 draw price looks intriguing given both teams need points, though the over 2.5 at 1.88 might be the sharpest play on the board. Two attack-minded teams with everything to play for under the Roman lights. Buckle up.