Soccer January 23, 2026

The defending champions roll into Burgundy with an air of inevitability that's become the hallmark of Ligue 1 under PSG's dominance. Yet Auxerre's Stade de l'Abbe-Deschamps has a habit of producing drama, and the newly promoted side has shown flashes of resilience that belie their status as cannon fodder for the Parisian juggernaut. Luis Enrique's squad arrives having won their last four league matches, outscoring opponents 11-2 in that stretch, and the attacking trident of Bradley Barcola, Ousmane Dembele, and Randal Kolo Muani has been absolutely devastating.

For Auxerre, survival remains the primary objective, and Christophe Pelissier's men have scratched and clawed their way to relative safety through disciplined defensive organization and opportunistic counter-attacking. Their home form has been the foundation of their campaign, with seven of their league points coming at the Abbe-Deschamps. The compact pitch dimensions and raucous atmosphere can unsettle even the most accomplished visitors, though PSG's quality differential is simply too vast to ignore for extended periods.

The numbers paint a portrait of overwhelming Parisian superiority. PSG's xG differential of +33.6 leads Ligue 1 by a canyon-sized margin, while Auxerre's defensive metrics suggest they're overperforming their underlying numbers by conceding three fewer goals than expected. That kind of fortune rarely sustains itself against elite opposition. Barcola has been a revelation this season, contributing 14 goals and 9 assists while consistently beating defenders one-on-one at a rate that would make Neymar envious in his prime.

The Bottom Line

PSG should cruise here, but Auxerre's home environment and counter-attacking threat means this won't be a procession. The Burgundians have scored in each of their last six home matches, and their willingness to throw numbers forward creates opportunities for PSG's devastating transition game. The over 3.0 at -120 looks like the sharpest angle, with PSG likely to score 2-3 and Auxerre capable of nicking one on the counter. A 3-1 or 4-1 PSG victory feels like the most probable outcome for those who enjoy correct score markets.

There's no rivalry quite like the Hamburg Derby. Forget the manufactured "classics" that television networks try to sell you. This is the real thing: two clubs separated by the Elbe River, united only in their mutual contempt for one another. St. Pauli's Millerntor-Stadion will be absolutely bouncing for this one, the Sudkurve's skull and crossbones flags flying as the Kiezclub faithful prepare to welcome their hated neighbors from across the city. The atmosphere alone is worth the price of admission, and Friday's clash carries enormous weight in the Bundesliga 2 promotion race.

St. Pauli's remarkable rise back to relevance has been one of German football's great stories this season. After years of bouncing between divisions, Fabian Hurzeler's side has found an identity built on aggressive pressing, direct attacking play, and an unshakeable team spirit that reflects the club's unique culture. Marcel Hartel has been their creative hub, pulling strings from the number ten position with a combination of vision and work rate that exemplifies the St. Pauli ethos. The Millerntor has become a fortress, with just two home defeats all season.

Hamburg, for their part, arrive in a state of perpetual underachievement that has become their trademark since relegation from the Bundesliga in 2018. The fallen giants have cycled through managers, systems, and philosophies without finding the formula that will return them to Germany's top flight. Current boss Stefan Leitl has steadied the ship somewhat, but inconsistency remains their defining characteristic. Robert Glatzel continues to be their primary offensive threat, the target man offering a focal point that creates space for runners off him.

The Bottom Line

Derby matches rarely follow form lines, but the setting favors St. Pauli significantly. The Millerntor's compact dimensions and ferocious atmosphere will test Hamburg's mental fortitude, and history suggests these encounters tend to be tight, cagey affairs with goals at a premium. The under 2.5 at -115 reflects the historical trend and the tactical approach both sides are likely to adopt. Neither team will want to leave themselves exposed in such a high-stakes environment, making a 1-0 or 1-1 scoreline the most probable outcomes.