Soccer January 26, 2026

Monday night under the lights at the Hill Dickinson Stadium, and this one is dripping with narrative. Dominic Calvert-Lewin returns to Merseyside for the first time since leaving Everton for Leeds United, and you just know the former Toffees striker has circled this fixture in his diary since the day he signed. He's available at 2.85 to score anytime, and given the emotional charge of this homecoming, that feels like a price worth exploring. But beyond the individual storylines, this is a match between two sides occupying very different positions in the table but sharing a similar sense of urgency.

Everton sit 11th with 32 points from 22 matches, a position that looks comfortable enough on paper but disguises a team that has struggled for consistency. David Moyes has undeniably improved the Toffees since returning, engineering nine more points than they had at this stage last season, but their home form has recently stalled with four consecutive home matches without a victory. Leeds, meanwhile, are 16th with 25 points in their first season back after winning the Championship with a club-record 100 points. Daniel Farke's side have shown fight and tactical flexibility, losing just one of their last ten in all competitions after switching to a back five, but their away record remains a serious concern.

The Creative Catalyst: Jack Grealish's Revival

Jack Grealish has been the story of Everton's season, and his creative output has been nothing short of transformative since arriving at Goodison, or rather the Hill Dickinson Stadium. With six assists, he's joint-third in the entire Premier League for chances created, and his ability to drift between the lines and find pockets of space makes him the Toffees' most dangerous attacking weapon. His vision and progressive passing have elevated Everton's entire offensive structure, turning a side that looked directionless into one with genuine creative identity. If Leeds don't account for Grealish, they'll pay the price.

Leeds' away record is genuinely alarming for anyone considering backing them on the road. Just one win in eleven away matches this season, with 24 goals conceded at an average of 2.18 per road game, and clean sheets in a paltry 9% of their travels. That's bottom-tier form for any side with aspirations of survival, and while Farke's tactical switch to a back five has improved their overall results, the defensive fragility away from Elland Road remains their Achilles heel. Brenden Aaronson has been a bright spot with three goals in his last five Premier League matches, providing the kind of direct running and finishing that gives Leeds a genuine threat on the counter.

The AFCON Factor and Fitness Concerns

Here's a wrinkle that could affect the outcome: Everton are sweating the fitness of AFCON stars Idrissa Gueye and Iliman Ndiaye, both of whom returned to the club on Friday after international duty. Ndiaye has been in strong form recently, registering one or more shots on target in four straight Premier League games, and his involvement could be crucial. Gueye's energy in midfield has been equally important for Moyes' defensive structure. If either player is not fully fit to start, it changes the complexion of this match significantly and could tip the value toward the draw or even a Leeds upset.

The head-to-head history adds another layer. Everton are unbeaten in their last five home meetings with Leeds, a run of dominance at Goodison that stretches back years. But Leeds won the reverse fixture 1-0 in August in their first game back in the Premier League, a result that gave Farke's newly promoted side an enormous confidence boost. That victory showed Leeds can compete with established Premier League sides when their tactical discipline holds, but replicating it away from home is another proposition entirely.

The Bottom Line

The BTTS market at -118 is the standout play here, and the numbers back it up emphatically. Both teams to score has landed in eight of Leeds' last ten matches and in four of their last five away games, while Leeds' defensive vulnerability on the road (24 goals conceded in 11 away matches) suggests Everton will find the net at home. The Toffees' four-match home winless streak introduces enough doubt to make the draw at 9/4 an attractive proposition, especially given Leeds' improved form under the back-five system. Everton at +148 looks right as slight favorites given their superior league position and home head-to-head record, but the value play is BTTS combined with Calvert-Lewin to score against his former club. There's too much emotion in this fixture for it to end 0-0, and both sides' recent form suggests goals are coming from both ends.