Soccer January 27, 2026

This match was originally scheduled for Matchday 16 back in December but was called off when Hamburg got absolutely hammered by a snowstorm that crippled the entire transport network. St. Pauli did everything they could to get the Millerntor-Stadion playable, but the snow on the roof was a genuine safety hazard, and the club rightly prioritized emergency services over football. It's now nearly six weeks later, and if anything, the delay has only made matters worse for the home side. St. Pauli are in a terrible spot right now, sitting 18th on just 12 points with a record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 11 losses. They've been in freefall, managing one solitary league victory since September, and their home record is the worst in the entire Bundesliga: eight points from eight matches at the Millerntor.

Leipzig, by contrast, are sitting pretty on 29 points with 9 wins, 2 draws, and just 4 defeats. A victory here would push them back into third place, leapfrogging Stuttgart and potentially Hoffenheim (who also have a game in hand tonight). The quality gap between these sides is enormous, and Leipzig showed as much in the reverse fixture with a comfortable 2-0 home victory. Two wins from three in 2026 suggest Die Roten Bullen have shaken off any wobbles from their mid-season inconsistency, and their attack has been clicking, with six of their last seven matches producing more than 2.5 goals.

Survival vs Ambition: The Tactical Disconnect

Here's the thing about St. Pauli: they simply don't score enough. With just 13 goals from 17 matches, only Hamburg, Heidenheim, and St. Pauli themselves have been more toothless in front of goal across the division. That's a devastating indictment of a side that was promoted as Championship winners, and it speaks to a fundamental lack of quality in the final third. Their seven points from the last 15 matchdays tell the whole story. Meanwhile, Leipzig's attacking machine rolls on. They've got genuine firepower through the middle and out wide, and against a side this low on confidence, the visitors will fancy their chances of cutting through St. Pauli's backline with relative ease.

The Millerntor-Stadion will be rocking, of course, because St. Pauli's fans are among the most passionate in German football. But passion alone doesn't win you games at this level, and the newly promoted side simply haven't found a way to translate the energy in the stands into results on the pitch. A win here would claw them back to the relegation playoff spot, which shows just how tight things are at the bottom, but everything about this matchup screams Leipzig dominance.

The Bottom Line

Leipzig are rightfully heavy favorites at -123, and the implied 55% win probability actually feels generous to the home side. St. Pauli's inability to score makes this an incredibly tough watch for their fans, and Leipzig's attacking quality should prove the difference on a cold Tuesday night in Hamburg. The over 2.5 at -185 is juiced but justified given Leipzig's recent goal involvement, though you'd need the visitors to bring the goals on their own since St. Pauli don't provide many. This is a game between 18th and 4th, and on form, quality, and mentality, Leipzig hold every advantage.

The second of today's rescheduled Bundesliga fixtures sees Werder Bremen host a Hoffenheim side absolutely flying right now. This one was also postponed from December's Matchday 16 due to the severe snowfall across northern Germany, and the six-week gap hasn't been kind to Bremen at all. Horst Steffen's squad are now on an eight-game winless streak in the league dating back to early November. Eight matches without a win. That's genuinely alarming, and they've drifted down to 14th with just 17 points, sitting only three clear of the relegation zone. The sense of crisis at the Weserstadion is palpable.

Hoffenheim, on the other hand, have been one of the stories of the season. Third in the Bundesliga on 27 points, they've won three consecutive league matches since the winter break, including a hugely impressive 3-1 away victory at Eintracht Frankfurt this past weekend. Their record of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses reflects a team firing on all cylinders, with 38 goals scored (the joint-third best in the division) and just 22 conceded (third-best defensive record). The contrast between these two sides right now couldn't be sharper.

Bremen's Injury Crisis Deepens the Problems

As if the form wasn't bad enough, Bremen are dealing with a significant injury list that strips away their already thin depth. Mitchell Weiser (cruciate ligament), Victor Boniface (cartilage damage), Felix Agu (ankle), Isaac Schmidt (concussion), and Maximilian Wober (muscular problems) are all sidelined, while Marco Friedl misses through suspension due to accumulated yellow cards. That's half a squad's worth of absentees, and it leaves Steffen with very limited options to rotate or adjust his approach. Hoffenheim aren't fully healthy either, with Koki Machida (cruciate ligament), Adam Hlozek (calf), Cole Campbell (ankle), and Attila Szalai all missing, but the visitors' depth of quality is simply on a different level.

Here's a stat that should terrify every Bremen supporter: Hoffenheim have won their previous three competitive trips to the Weserstadion and are unbeaten in their last nine visits to Bremen across all competitions. That's not a blip; it's a full-blown jinx. Combined with Bremen's toothless attack (only 21 goals in 16 matches, one of the lowest tallies in the division), and Hoffenheim's clinical finishing that averages over two goals per game, the visitors look well-positioned to extend their dominant record in this fixture.

The Bottom Line

Hoffenheim at +118 actually represents genuine value for a side that's third in the table, riding a three-game winning streak, and historically dominant at this ground. Bremen's eight-game winless run, combined with their mounting injury crisis and lack of firepower, makes it difficult to construct a case for the hosts beyond "they're due." The over 2.5 looks strong given Hoffenheim's attacking output, though Bremen's inability to score could keep the total line close. This is 3rd vs 14th, and Hoffenheim should have the quality to add to Bremen's misery.

Pep Guardiola's Manchester City arrive at the final matchday in genuinely unfamiliar territory: desperate. The 3-1 defeat at Bodo/Glimt on Matchday 7 was the latest in a troubling sequence of European stumbles, and City now sit 11th on 13 points, outside the top 8 and needing a win to guarantee direct qualification for the Round of 16. They've also lost 0-2 at home to Bayer Leverkusen earlier in the campaign, which ended a 23-match unbeaten home run that stretched back years. This is not the imperious City of the treble-winning vintage. The injury list remains extensive: Josko Gvardiol, John Stones, Ruben Dias, Savinho, and Mateo Kovacic are all absent, and the defensive fragility without that quartet has been painfully evident.

Galatasaray, sitting 17th on 10 points, have their own fight. A win at the Etihad would be monumental for the Turkish giants and could propel them into the top 24, but their away European record is grim: one win in their last 12 European road trips. The subplot here is irresistible, though. Ilkay Gundogan, who captained City to their 2023 Champions League triumph and scored 65 goals across 358 appearances for the club, returns to the Etihad wearing Galatasaray yellow. Leroy Sane, another City alumni with 39 goals in 135 matches, could also feature. Those personal narratives add emotional weight to what is already a high-stakes fixture.

City's Must-Win Reality

Erling Haaland should return to the lineup after being rested for the weekend, and his presence alone transforms City's attacking threat. The Norwegian's record in the Champions League speaks for itself, and against a Galatasaray defense that will be organized but not elite, he should get chances. Galatasaray welcomed Victor Osimhen back from AFCON duty, so they're not without firepower of their own, and their 1-1 draw against Atletico Madrid on Matchday 7 showed they can compete with the continent's best. But the Etihad on a European night, with Guardiola's European legacy on the line, is a different beast. City should win this, but "should" is a word that's betrayed them a lot this season.

Real Madrid head to Lisbon sitting comfortably on 15 points in 3rd place, and just a single point at the Estadio da Luz would all but guarantee a top-8 finish and direct qualification for the Round of 16. Alvaro Arbeloa's men have found their stride at exactly the right moment, stringing together three straight victories including a jaw-dropping 6-1 demolition of Monaco in their last European outing. Kylian Mbappe, who doubled up against Villarreal at the weekend to send Los Blancos to the top of La Liga temporarily, underwent individual training ahead of this match, and his availability remains a question mark. Even without him at full throttle, Madrid's squad depth is staggering.

Benfica's situation is far more perilous. Jose Mourinho's side have lost five of their seven Champions League matches this season and sit 29th, two points adrift of Olympiacos in the last qualification spot at 24th. The Estadio da Luz, normally a fortress, has offered little protection in Europe this term. It's a remarkable position for a club of Benfica's pedigree, and the fact that they need a result against Real Madrid to stay alive makes this feel like a David vs. Goliath showdown. Mourinho returned to winning ways domestically with a 4-0 thrashing of Estrela on Sunday, but European form and Portuguese league form exist on entirely different planes.

High Stakes in Lisbon

The injury situation adds intrigue. Mbappe's fitness is the headline uncertainty for Madrid, with Eder Militao and Ferland Mendy both on extended absences. Benfica are without Alexander Bah and Nuno Felix (both knee injuries) and Dodi Lukebakio (broken ankle), which further depletes their options against a side that can hurt you from every angle. The defensive work of Nicolas Otamendi and Tomas Araujo will be crucial if Benfica are to have any chance. Realistically, Madrid should approach this with the calm assurance of a team that needs one point. But Arbeloa's side have been playing with an attacking freedom that suggests they'll go for the win, which could leave gaps for Vangelis Pavlidis to exploit if Benfica can win possession in dangerous areas.

Liverpool's Champions League campaign has been quietly excellent, and a win at Anfield tomorrow would clinch a top-4 finish in the league phase, guaranteeing direct passage to the Round of 16 with a favorable draw. Arne Slot's side sit on 15 points after a dominant 3-0 victory at Marseille on Matchday 7, and their 5-0-2 record represents one of the strongest campaigns in the competition this season. The only concern? A surprise 3-2 loss at Bournemouth in the Premier League on Saturday ended their 13-game unbeaten run and introduced a tiny crack of doubt. Slot will want a response, and Anfield under the lights is usually where Liverpool deliver their most emphatic performances.

Qarabag have been one of the competition's surprise packages, sitting on 10 points in 18th place, well within the playoff spots. Their 3-2 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt was a statement win, and they've also drawn with Chelsea at home, which tells you this Azerbaijani side are no pushovers. Camilo Duran leads the line with four goals in seven Champions League appearances, and Qarabag's home form has been genuinely impressive. But the Tofiq Bahramov Stadium is a long way from Anfield, and their away European record is far less convincing. Gurban Gurbanov appears to have a fully fit squad available.

A Night for Rotation and Statements

Slot may look to rotate, with Andy Robertson and Ibrahima Konate expected back in the lineup, particularly after the exertions of the Bournemouth defeat. Federico Chiesa's fitness remains a question mark after missing the weekend squad entirely. Dominic Szoboszlai has been in sensational form, scoring two brilliant free-kicks in his last two matches, and the Hungarian midfielder is becoming one of the most important creative forces in Slot's system. Liverpool should handle this at home, but the 3:00 PM ET simultaneous kickoff means Slot's men will know exactly what they need, which could affect how aggressively they approach the match. A win here would cap a superb league phase campaign and set Liverpool up beautifully for the knockout rounds.